UnderGround Forums Anyone surprised Nogueira is +440?

2/2/13 8:02 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 10330

I was just checking out some potential bets for the fights tonight, and noticed that Nogueira is as high as +440. Does this surprise anyone else? I know that Evans is a favorite and will probably wrestle/L&P his way to a decision - but Nogueira is one tough dude with incredible boxing and some totally legit skills.

I was expecting Rashad to be the favorite, but +440 is pretty extreme.

2/2/13 8:03 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 27239
that is pretty unrealistic. Nog looks to be in great shape and could pull the upset off.
2/2/13 8:06 AM
6/22/04
Posts: 1209
Rashad is way too fast and his wrestling is too good to be taken down by nog.
2/2/13 9:26 AM
1/20/11
Posts: 976
Nogueira has struggled with lesser (MMA) wrestlers like Bader and Davis, no reason to doubt Rashad can out wrestle him for the win Phone Post
2/2/13 9:31 AM
6/9/09
Posts: 15424
k1levelstriking -  Nogueira has struggled with lesser (MMA) wrestlers like Bader and Davis, no reason to doubt Rashad can out wrestle him for the win Phone Post

unfortunately this.

2/2/13 9:48 AM
9/3/12
Posts: 1475
lmao

did you see him fight Bader, Davis, or Brilz?

they only reason Tito didn't wrestle fuck Nog also is because Tito's shot is essentially nonexistent due to his back and neck issues Phone Post
2/2/13 10:34 AM
4/27/08
Posts: 19545

Not surprised at all, Evans is a really bad matchup for him.

2/2/13 10:34 AM
4/27/08
Posts: 19546
gamer - 
k1levelstriking -  Nogueira has struggled with lesser (MMA) wrestlers like Bader and Davis, no reason to doubt Rashad can out wrestle him for the win Phone Post

Did you even watch those fights lol

Nogueria stuft a majority of their takedowns and out boxed both of them on the feet

Both of those fights are the prime examples of how MMA scoring always favors the American wrestler

They defiently didnt prove to be better fighters then Nogueria

They simply stalled out the fight until time ran out


Anyway

Rashad was almost finished by an injured Thiago

If Thiago can almost do it, then Nougeria can do it!

Nogueria is a much better boxer and has much much better accuracy

See two can play that game

Hi Thiaguy, DIE Thiaguy.

2/2/13 10:35 AM
3/30/04
Posts: 20127
Anyone know where I can go to put some money on Nog?
2/2/13 10:35 AM
4/27/08
Posts: 19547

Put money on it if you think those odds are good.

2/2/13 11:27 AM
10/23/09
Posts: 8211
Not surprised, but I will be rooting hard for Nog! Phone Post
2/2/13 11:46 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 7028
After watching Lil Nog vs Davis, no I'm not surprised at all.

Rashad will do the exact same. Phone Post
2/2/13 11:48 AM
4/13/07
Posts: 560
Those odds are giving Nog a little less than 1/5 chance of winning this fight. I actually think that is pretty accurate, so even though the +440 looks gaudy, it does not represent much, if any, value.
2/2/13 2:52 PM
6/5/10
Posts: 4223
I thought he'd be more like 300. In my opinion he beat Bader and narrowly lost to Davis, and his takedown defense is getting much better. I probably won't pick him to win but at those odds he's not an awful bet, he's the better striker with improving takedown defense and extremely dangerous Jiujitsu.

Another thing to consider is that he's a southpaw which Machida really struggled with against Machida (Nog's training partner). Phone Post
2/2/13 4:13 PM
12/28/12
Posts: 444
Herring In A Fur Coat -

Not surprised at all, Evans is a really bad matchup for him.

This Phone Post
2/2/13 4:53 PM
6/6/12
Posts: 922
gamer -
k1levelstriking -  Nogueira has struggled with lesser (MMA) wrestlers like Bader and Davis, no reason to doubt Rashad can out wrestle him for the win Phone Post

Did you even watch those fights lol

Nogueria stuft a majority of their takedowns and out boxed both of them on the feet

Both of those fights are the prime examples of how MMA scoring always favors the American wrestler

They defiently didnt prove to be better fighters then Nogueria

They simply stalled out the fight until time ran out


Anyway

Rashad was almost finished by an injured Thiago

If Thiago can almost do it, then Nougeria can do it!

Nogueria is a much better boxer and has much much better accuracy

See two can play that game
So you say rashard by dec then? Phone Post
2/2/13 5:00 PM
12/17/09
Posts: 294
It's just a good line for the bookies to make money. Rashad will win regardless. But put a big enough line on it and people will jump on nog as an upset and plenty of easy money will roll the bookies way. Closer odds would be a waste of money Phone Post
2/2/13 5:03 PM
7/12/12
Posts: 610
The bookies don't try to "trick" people into betting on one fighter or another. The fact is, and you can dress it up however you want, but Nog lost to Phil Davis, so why would he beat someone that's better than Phil Davis in every way, after a year layoff?
2/2/13 8:54 PM
7/12/12
Posts: 629
gamer - 
Size - The bookies don't try to "trick" people into betting on one fighter or another. The fact is, and you can dress it up however you want, but Nog lost to Phil Davis, so why would he beat someone that's better than Phil Davis in every way, after a year layoff?

"The bookies don't try to "trick" people into betting on one fighter or another"


Uh yeah thays exactly what bookoes try to do. They sway the lines to get the action going one way or another. Its all about money for them. You are totally clueless

Bookies aren't in it to gamble, they want equal money on both sides. Walking around with that thick of a skull on your shoulders must be a real bitch!
2/2/13 8:58 PM
11/24/10
Posts: 12426
Herring In A Fur Coat -

Not surprised at all, Evans is a really bad matchup for him.

This.

It's a squash match.

Just like Bigfoot-Reem.

Both are to showcase the winner for a title fight. Phone Post
2/2/13 9:02 PM
10/3/06
Posts: 2400
gamer - 
k1levelstriking -  Nogueira has struggled with lesser (MMA) wrestlers like Bader and Davis, no reason to doubt Rashad can out wrestle him for the win Phone Post

Did you even watch those fights lol

Nogueria stuft a majority of their takedowns and out boxed both of them on the feet

Both of those fights are the prime examples of how MMA scoring always favors the American wrestler

They defiently didnt prove to be better fighters then Nogueria

They simply stalled out the fight until time ran out


Anyway

Rashad was almost finished by an injured Thiago

If Thiago can almost do it, then Nougeria can do it!

Nogueria is a much better boxer and has much much better accuracy

See two can play that game

QFT if people still say that. I'd definitely throw down some cash on Lil Nog if I wasn't broke as a joke
2/2/13 9:13 PM
7/12/12
Posts: 633
Someone get Odessa in here! Gamer has revolutionized sports betting! Lol

'Shad's gonna win, too.
2/3/13 12:06 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 10332

Knew I should have bet on this one.

2/3/13 12:30 AM
3/30/04
Posts: 20146
Take that bitchez!
2/3/13 1:24 AM
7/12/12
Posts: 641
Good performance from Lil Nog! I can't believe Lil Nog beat Rashad when he lost to Davis. I firmly believed Rashad was superior to Davis in every way, and maybe he is, but either way Lil Nog was ready. I know Davis was failing to succeed with one type of takedown, I believe a single, as Rashad was, and then got the takedowns and controlled when he started shooting doubles. Rashad stuck with the single leg, on the rare occasion he managed to close in, and just got picked apart...crazy. I like Lil Nog and I'm happy to see him win. I was pulling for Rashad 'cause I'm a fan of him too and thought he had a chance at the MW title, but, so much for that. It'll be interesting to see where they go from here.