UnderGround Forums GuidaClayAllDay's Picks

Edited: 7/26/14 11:06 AM
10/22/10
Posts: 0

FRAT

Hello UG. I have been making wagers on Mixed Martial Arts bouts since 2007. My bets per MMA event have recently been ranging from 4-5 figures depending on how much positive expected value I perceive in the respective betting line.

I am writing this post today because after nearly 6 years of betting on MMA, I believe I have a skill that can generate income. The annual returns on my bets have been outstanding and I am confident in saying that people following my wagers can achieve at least a 10% return on their investment annually (making the same wagers). I am in the process of creating a free website decicated to mma betting & blogging, where you can pick up tips, explore strategies/theory, and enjoy some cheeky humor in the process.

I think I can offer something different by taking a respectful approach to an industry that is full of many con-artists, scammers, and liars.

I have been posting my bets here/twitter, and eventually will continue posting my bets on the website (when it is live). On fight day, when betting limits are the highest and lines are generally the tightest, I am going to screenshot the available lines from 5dimes (pinnacle or 5dimes reduced will likely have even better lines to choose from) around noon eastern time. I am going to post my picks and the recommended % of bankroll you should wager. The total % of bankroll wagered per event will never exceed 20%. I will never edit the posts that announce my plays. I will also be tweeting my plays on my twitter @guidaclayallday (https://twitter.com/GuidaClayAllDay) when they are up. Both measures will serve as proof that there is no foul play going on, and the keen observers on the UG will likely be doing their own due diligence as well.

This first post will be edited to reflect the changes in the total bankroll, to add relevant information, and to update the plays with the newest ones that I posted on this thread.

I am happy to answer any questions you may have depending on the topic ( sans where to bet, please make sure it is legal where you live) Otherwise, feel free to subscribe to this thread and/or follow me on twitter. I am very excited for this opportunity.

Thanks,

Todd

Your "bankroll" is 100 denominations of whatever amount you feel comfortable betting with. We are going to refer to these denominations as 100 units or 100u. After each event, take your new total and divide by 100, as your wagering size will change after each event. 100u is the starting point.

(updated for newest plays/results)

UFC on Fox 12 plays:

 

 

2/15/13 7:02 PM
1/26/13
Posts: 264

2/15/13 7:09 PM
11/28/10
Posts: 6215
Well in Phone Post
2/15/13 7:09 PM
12/14/03
Posts: 21952
UG For The Money.
2/15/13 7:10 PM
6/10/12
Posts: 1512

I got an email like this from a Nigerian prince the other day

2/15/13 7:10 PM
7/22/05
Posts: 30503

UFC on Fuel 7 picks?

Edited: 2/15/13 7:15 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 1
MdGeist - 

I got an email like this from a Nigerian prince the other day

 

^lol my goal is not come off like a scammer like 99% of touts do. For the next 6 months (possibly a full year) I will passively be posting my plays to prove my legitimacy.

 

2/15/13 7:13 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 2
Card - 

UFC on Fuel 7 picks?


will be posted between 8am-12pm eastern time tomorrow. I'm aware the card starts at 12 so probably closer to 10am.

2/15/13 7:24 PM
7/18/11
Posts: 15588
GuidaClayAllDay -
Card - 

UFC on Fuel 7 picks?


will be posted between 8am-12pm eastern time tomorrow. I'm aware the card starts at 12 so probably closer to 10am.

Why not now? Phone Post
2/15/13 7:31 PM
12/24/07
Posts: 7407
Casehart, his secretive and complex formula requires the gimmicky pull you in with next to nothing now, keep you anticipating, fail to deliver unless you fork over money in which he'll still fail to deliver kind of thing.

A person who is great at picking fights is lucky if he picks 66-69 percent of the winners in MMA overall. There's no pure science top gambling. Best just move along. Phone Post
2/15/13 7:32 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 3
caseharts - 
GuidaClayAllDay -
Card - 

UFC on Fuel 7 picks?


will be posted between 8am-12pm eastern time tomorrow. I'm aware the card starts at 12 so probably closer to 10am.

Why not now? Phone Post

I want to keep a consistent timeframe.

I'm choosing to post on fight day because it is harder to make money when the lines are the sharpest, and bettors who wish to wager large sums of money usually can't do so until fight day.

I'm stepping out for a little bit but I'll be in in a couple hours.

2/15/13 7:33 PM
7/18/11
Posts: 15592
Mauro Ranallo's Mic - Casehart, his secretive and complex formula requires the gimmicky pull you in with next to nothing now, keep you anticipating, fail to deliver unless you fork over money in which he'll still fail to deliver kind of thing.

A person who is great at picking fights is lucky if he picks 66-69 percent of the winners in MMA overall. There's no pure science top gambling. Best just move along. Phone Post
Ya I know. I'm out. I'll pick better thanks Phone Post
Edited: 2/15/13 11:47 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 4
Mauro Ranallo's Mic -  Casehart, his secretive and complex formula requires the gimmicky pull you in with next to nothing now, keep you anticipating, fail to deliver unless you fork over money in which he'll still fail to deliver kind of thing.

A person who is great at picking fights is lucky if he picks 66-69 percent of the winners in MMA overall. There's no pure science top gambling. Best just move along. Phone Post

 

I plan to lose a lot of bets. It's not about how many winners you pick, it's about your return on investment. You can win the same amount picking a high percentage of favorite winners as you can picking a low percentage of dog winners.

I am not in the scamming business. I've been generating a return of over 10% year after year with low volatility (not risking more than 20% per event) for 6 years and I plan to make this year the 7th.

2/16/13 9:28 AM
10/22/10
Posts: 5

UFC on FUEL 7 Bets

Fighter Bet (u) Line to win (u)
Barao 2.00 -270 0.74
Nelson 1.50 -275 0.55
Grispi 1.38 -138 1.00
Diabate 0.25 +190 0.48

 

 

2/16/13 9:31 AM
6/9/12
Posts: 9298

Grispi AND Diabate?

Come on, son.

2/22/13 7:49 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 8

 

UFC ON FUEL TV 7 Bankroll: 100
Fighter % of Bankroll Bet (u) Line to win (u) Result
Barao 2% 2.00 -270 0.74 W 0.74
Nelson 1.50% 1.50 -275 0.55 W 0.55
Grispi 1.38% 1.38 -138 1.00 L -1.38
Diabate 0.35% 0.25 +190 0.48 L -0.25
          Total -0.34
        Updated Bankroll 99.66
 
UFC 157 plays will be up tomorrow around 11 am eastern
 
2/22/13 8:02 PM
7/18/11
Posts: 15878
yellow c0ckahlc -

Grispi AND Diabate?

Come on, son.

Lol Phone Post
2/23/13 11:23 AM
10/22/10
Posts: 9

Bets for UFC 157

 

2/24/13 2:31 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 10

UFC 157 Results:

 

Will have plays for UFC on Fuel 8 next week.

2/27/13 4:49 PM
10/22/10
Posts: 11

UFC on Fuel 8 plays will be up around 10am Eastern time on Saturday.

2/27/13 4:52 PM
7/18/11
Posts: 16240
We shall see. Phone Post
3/2/13 10:31 AM
10/22/10
Posts: 12

UFC on Fuel 8 plays:

3/2/13 11:24 AM
11/21/11
Posts: 784
In to get rich beeyatch Phone Post
3/2/13 12:17 PM
7/18/11
Posts: 16521
How do you not see the value in siyar?? Ya he might get say on but he had a serious chance to ko kim. He's plus 250. Phone Post
3/2/13 1:00 PM
12/2/11
Posts: 342
In Phone Post