Member Since: 12/3/08
Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes
Upside None - While winning a second championship would be a huge victory for Cejudo, he does have two losses in the last 3 years. When comparing that to Cormier, Jones, and Khabib, there would be no reason to raise Cejudo any futher in the pound-for-pound rankings.
Downside High - Cejudo should fall to #9 in the pound-for-pound rankings, just behind Dustin Poirier. While Cejudo has some high profile wins, he would be 4-3 in roughly the last 3 years. In that same time, Poirier would be 5-1, 1NC. Poirier, like Cejudo, has a win over a champion who moved into his division and, also like Cejudo, has a title. As a result Poirier should be higher. We would also begin ranking Cejudo at bantamweight. His ranking would largely depend on his performance. In a close or competitive loss, he should be ranked as high as #3, behind Raphael Assuncao and the winner of Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munhoz. Should he get beaten badly, he could be ranked as low as #8, behind the winner of Jimmie Rivera and Petr Yan.
Upside High - In addition to taking the champions spot at bantamweight, Moraes should appear at #6 on the pound-for-pound list. Moraes would have wins over the #1 and #2 contenders in his division already (both by first round finish) and he would also have a win over another divisions champion. This should be enough to get him to the #6 spot, ahead of Kamaru Usman, who has wins over #1 and #3 in his division.
Downside None - Moraes has a win over the current #2 in his division, Raphael Assuncao, so there would be no reason to drop him down at all.
Valentina Schevchenko vs. Jessica Eye
Upside Low to Medium - A win here to defend her title would move Shevchenko up one or two spots in the pound-for-pound rankings. This would depend on whether or not Tony Ferguson beats Donald Cerrone. If Ferguson wins then Shevchenko would simply pass Tyron Woodley, who is coming off of losing his title to Kamaru Usman. If Ferguson should lose, then Shevchenko would pass him as well.
Downside Medium - With a loss here Shevchenko would first drop out of the pound-for-pound rankings. She would be 2-2 in her last 4 with wins over Joanna Jedrzeczyk and Priscila Cachoeira, which is not enough to be ranked in the pound-for-pound ranking. Should would also fall to #2 at flyweight, just behind the winner of the Chookagian/Calderwood fight. While she was previously the champ, the 2-2 record with only one win over a ranked opponent is not enough to keep her in the #1 spot.
Upside None - Other than moving into the champion's spot at flyweight, Eye would not move at all. While she has reinvented herself at flyweight, her best win (other than this one) would be Katlyn Chookagain. This would not be enough to pass current #16 Israel Adesanya, who has wins over Anderson Silva and Kelvin Gastelum. It would also not make sense for her to pass #17 Cris Cyborg, who only has one loss in the UFC and it is to current #6 pound-for-pound ranked Amanda Nunes.
Downside None to Low - With a loss Eye would either fall one spot or not at all. This would depend on the winner of Chookagian vs. Calderwood. Should Katlyn Chookagian win, Eye would not fall at all due to her win over her. If Calderwood should win, Eye would drop one spot to make room for Calderwood at the top.
Donald Cerrone vs. Tony Ferguson
Upside Low - There is no room for Ferguson to move up at lightweight. However, he would likely pass Stipe Miocic in the pound-for-pound rankings at #11. Miocic is coming off a loss and Ferguson has wins over 5 top 10 opponents. He does not pass Robert Whittaker though due to Whittaker's two wins over Yoel Romero.
Downside Low - Although he drops behind Cerrone, Ferguson should not fall behind Conor McGregor. Conor is 2-2 in his last 4 with no wins over currently ranked lightweights. Ferguson, on the other hand, is 3-1 and beat Anthony Pettis, Kevin Lee, and Raphael dos Anjos in that time. He would, however, fall from the pound-for-pound rankings in favor of Israel Adesanya, who is undefeated in the UFC and has a win over top contender Kelvin Gastelum.
Upside Medium - With a win Cerrone would be ranked #2 in the division. He would be the first person to beat Ferguson in 7 years. In addition, his 3-0 record since returning to lightweight with all ranked opponents, makes him a top level contender. This win should not be enough to consider him for pound-for-pound rankings.
Downside None - Directly behind Cerrone is Justin Gaethje. Both he and Gaethje would be 2-1 in their last 3, but Cerrone would have wins over #6 and #13, whereas Gaethje would have wins over #7 and #15. As a result, Cerrone stays in front of him.
Jimmie Rivera vs. Petr Yan
Upside Medium - Rivera would jump up to either #4 or #5 depending on the result of Aljamain Sterling vs Pedro Munhoz. If Sterling loses, Rivera would remain at #5 behind him due to a recent loss to Sterling. If Munhoz losses, Rivera would pass him for the #4 spot due to the higher quality of victories in his recent fights (Petr Yan, John Dodson, Thomas Almeida, and Urijah Faber - compared to Munhoz's wins over Cody Garbrandt, Brett Johns, and Bryan Caraway). Regardless, he should pass Dominick Cruz who hasn't won in 3 years.
Downside Medium - With a loss Rivera should fall behind Cory Sandhagen and Yan, but stay in front of John Lineker. Lineker would be 2-1 in his last 3, whereas Rivera would be just 1-2. However, River's strength of schedule is far better. He would have fought #9 Petr Yan, #3 Aljamain Sterling, and #13 John Dodson. Lineker's only ranked fight in his last 3 would be #8 Cory Sandhagen, who he lost to. As a result, Rivera would drop just two places.
Upside High - This win should bump Yan up to either #4 or #5. He would pass whoever loses between Sterling and Munhoz earlier in the night. He would be 5-0 in the UFC with two wins over ranked opponents. Whoever loses that fight would be just 3-2 in their last 5 with no more than 2 wins over ranked opponents. He could also be above or behind Henry Cejudo in a loss depending on his performance.
Downside None - Even in a loss Yan would stay in front of John Lineker. Both would be 2-1 in their last 3, but Yan has a ranked victory over #13 John Dodson, which Lineker does not have in his last 3 fights.
Blagoy Ivanov vs. Tai Tuivasa
Upside Medium - With a win Ivanov would jump to #11, just ahead of Tuivasa and just behind Shamil Abdurakhimov. Abdurakhimov is 3-0 in his last 3 fights, whereas Ivanov would be just 2-1. In addition, they share a similar level of victories with Ivanov beating Tuivasa and Adburakhimov beating current #12 Marcin Tybura. As a result, he should stay behind Abdurakhimov.
Downside Medium - With a loss Ivanov should be unranked. He would be 1-2 in his 3-fight UFC stint, with only a win over Ben Rothwell coming off a big layoff. The current #16 is Sergey Pavlovich, who is 1-1 with a loss to Alistair Overeem and a KO win over Marcelo Golm. He would be more suited for the #15 spot than Ivanov.
Upside None - This win does not raise Tuivasa at all in the rankings. He would be 2-1 in his last 3 with wins over Ivanov and unranked Andrei Arlovski. Currently at #10 is Shamil Abdurakhimov, who is 3-0 in his last 3 with wins over Arlovski as well as #12 Marcin Tybura. Therefore, Tuivasa should stay behind Abdurakhimov.
Downside Low - Both he and current #12 Marcin Tybura would both be 1-2 in their last 3. However, Tuivasa has the better win in Andrei Arlovski, whereas Tybura's comparable win is over Stefan Struve.
Nina Ansaroff vs. Tatiana Suarez
Upside Low - With a win Suarez passes Namajunas for the #1 contender spot. Although Namajunas just lost her title, this win would give Suarez a better record in her last 4 (4-0 compared to 3-1) and would give her a stronger win (#3 Ansaroff is ranked higher than #4 Joanna Jedrzeczyk). As a result, it would only make sense to have Suarez at #1.
Downside Low - Other than falling behind Ansaroff, she would not fall any further. She would stay in front of #4 Joanna Jedrzeczyk due to having a 3-1 record in her last 4 compared to Jedrzeczyk's 1-3 record. In that span, she also has a comparible win with Carla Esparza ranked #9 compared to Jedrzecyzk's best win of #8 Tecia Torres.
Upside Medium - With a win Ansaroff passes Namajunas for the #1 contender spot. Although Namajunas just lost her title, this win would give Ansaroff a better record in her last 4 (4-0 compared to 3-1) and would give her a stronger win (#2 Tatiana Suarez is ranekd higher than #4 Joanna Jedrzeczyk). As a result, it would only make sense to have Ansaroff at #1.
Downside None - A loss to the #2 contender is not enough to drop Ansaroff behind Joanna Jedrzeczyk. Ansaroff would be 3-1 compared to Jedrzeczyk's 1-3. In addition, she also has a win over a higher ranked opponent in that span (#5 Claudia Gadelha compared to #8 Tecia Torres).
Pedro Munhoz vs. Aljamain Sterling
Upside Medium - With a win, Munhoz should come in at either #1 or #2. He would be 3-0 in his last 3 with wins over Aljamain Sterling, #6 Cody Garbrandt, and formerly top 10 Bryan Caraway. Even though he has a loss to Raphael Assuncao, that loss was 5 years ago. His recent record and the fact that Asscuncao is just 2-1 in his last 3 with his best win being #12 Rob Font means that Munhoz should pass him for #2. He would move all the way to #1 only if Marlon Moraes wins in the main event. Otherwise, he would stay behing Moraes, who has recent wins over #3 Sterling, #2 Assunaco, and #7 Jimmie Rivera.
Downside None to Low - Munhoz's win over Cody Garbrandt keeps him from falling behind Dominick Cruz or Garbrandt, who are right behind him. He will fall if Petr Yan wins over Jimmie Rivera earlier in the night. In that case, he would fall just one spot behind Yan. He may also fall behind Henry Cejudo even in a loss if Cejudo were to put on a solid performance.
Upside Low to Medium - With a win Sterling would take either the #1 or #2 spot depending on who wins in the title fight. Should Moraes win, Sterling would become #1. Although he has a loss to Raphael Assuncao, that loss is now two and a half years old. If you look at their last 3 fights, Sterling is 3-0 with wins over #4, #7, and #11, whereas Assuncao is 2-1 with wins over #12 and unranked Matthew Lopez. As a result, Sterling should be higher ranked. Should Cejudo win the title in the main event, Sterling would pass Assuncao and come in at #2 behind Moraes, who he lost more recently to.
Downside Low to Medium - Sterling would fall behind Munhoz with a loss, but would stay in front of Dominick Cruz, who has been largely inactive and has not won in 3 years. He falls further is if Petr Yan wins on the pay-per-view portion of the card over Jimmie Rivera. Then Sterling would also fall behind him. He may also fall behind Henry Cejudo even in a loss if Cejudo were to put on a solid performance.
Alexa Grasso vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Upside Medium - A loss here creates a traingle situation in which each of three fighters has lost to the other somewhat recently. Grasso would have defeated Kowalkiewicz, Kowalkiewicz would have defeated Herrig, and Herrig would have defeated Grasso. As a result, they should all be ranked between #11 and #13. While there is some level of freedom here due to that, the most likely order would be #11 Grasso, #12 Herrig, #13 Kowalkiewicz. This is due to the recency of the victory giving Grasso the edge and also due to the fact that Kowalkiewicz would be on a 3-fight losing streak, putting her last.
Downside None - A recent win over Randa Markos keeps her from falling any further.
Upside Low - With a win Kowalkiewicz would jump in front of Carla Esparza. Both would be 1-2 in their last 3, but Kowalkiewicz would have lost to higher ranked opponents. She lost to champion Jessica Andrade and #7 Michelle Waterson, whereas Esparza would have lost to #2 Tatiana Suarez and #5 Claudia Gadelha. In addition, Kowalkiewicz also beat a ranked opponent in Grasso, while Esparza's win is over unranked Virna Jandiroba.
Downside Medium - A loss here creates a triangle situation in which each of three fighters has lost to the other somewhat recently. Grasso would have defeated Kowalkiewicz, Kowalkiewicz would have defeated Herrig, and Herrig would have defeated Grasso. As a result, they should all be ranked between #11 and #13. While there is some level of freedom here due to that, the most likely order would be #11 Grasso, #12 Herrig, #13 Kowalkiewicz. This is due to the recency of the victory giving Grasso the edge and also due to the fact that Kowalkiewicz would be on a 3-fight losing streak, putting her last.
Calvin Kattar vs. Ricardo Lamas
Upside High - With a win here Kattar should jump to the #7 spot in the rankings, just ahead of Josh Emmett. Both would be 3-1 in their last 4. Emmett has just one win over a ranked opponent in Lamas, whereas Kattar will have not only beaten Lamas, but also knocked out #13 Shane Burgos. As a result, he should jump all the way to #7.
Downside None - Even in a loss here Katatr does not fall out of the rankings. The current #16 is Cub Swanson, who is coming off of losses to Rento Moicano (who finished him) and Shane Burgos. Kattar has a decision loss to Moicano and knocked out Burgos. As a result, he stays at #15 here.
Medium - With a loss Lamas should fall behind Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is currently 3-1 in his last 4 with a win over #12 Chan Sung Jung. Lamas' best win in his last 4 is #14 Darren Elkins. In addition, Lamas would be just 1-3 in his last 4. He does however stay in front of Chan Sung Jung due to Jung being just 1-2 in the last 3 years with only a win over Dennis Bermudez.
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Joanne Calderwood
Upside None to Low - If Shevchenko defends her title successfully in the main event, Chookagian would not move up at all. This is because she has a loss to current #1 contender Jessica Eye. If Shevchenko should lose, Chookagian would pass her and become the new #1 contender. Both would be 2-1 in their last 3 fights with losses to Eye. However, Chookagian would have wins over #6 Joanne Calderwood and #7 Alexis Davis, whereas Shevchenko would have wins over #4 Joanna Jedrzeczyk and unranked Priscila Cachoeira.
Downside Low - With a loss Chookagian would fall two spots to #4, falling behind Calderwood and Liz Carmouche. Carmouche is on a 2-fight win streak that includes a victory over #8 Jennifer Maia. Chookagian would be on a 2-fight losing streak, albeit to the top 2 contenders in the division. She would stay in front of Joanna Jedrzeczyk though due to this strength of schedule paired with the fact that Jedrzeczyk is 0-1 at flyweight. Jedrzeczyk is also 1-3 in her last 4, which would not give her a reason to pass Chookagian.
Upside High - With a win Calderwood would move all the way to the #1 contender spot. Calderwood would be 4-0 in the flyweight division including a win over the #2 contender. Regardless of who loses the main event, they will not have a record this high or a resume that is stronger than that (although Eye would share that victory).
Downside None - A loss here does not drop Calderwood at all. She would be 2-1 in her last 3, with only a loss to Chookagian. Directly behind her is Alexis Davis, who is 1-2 in her last 3, also with a loss to Chookagian. As a result there would be no reason to dropo her down at all.
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