UnderGround Forum >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky

Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?

nubp - I can't pass up on Nate at +130 and BJ +220. I've been tempted to take Shogun over Gustafsson, but between his last performances I just can't bet on which guy will show up. Either way everybody wins with JDS at -170.

BaraoKix - 

Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?

How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"

BrCutter - 

BaraoKix - 

Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?

How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"

Functional reach is more than just the length of your arms. If you have a long torso, you can lean further and that adds to your actual reach. 

I would love for Gusta to win this thing impressively. It would be the best thing possible for the UFC to have a young threat at LHW for Jones. I think he's a tremendously talented fighter, and more importantly: he's a smart fighter. He has to stay on plan and at distance for the entire fight. I wouldn't be shocked if Shogun is completely unable to take Gustamante down. 

For me the issue is going to be: what happens when Shogun lands something big? I'm betting that this thing gets turned into a dogfight and all of the Mauler's advantages go out the window when that happens. I'm betting that he can't stay within his gameplan when things start going sideways. 

Gusta does that Vitali K think where he uses his height to fight tall. Vitali has often had the same reach as his opponent, but was able to control the distance like he had half-a-foot on the guy

Olive Garden Table For One - 

The old lions: BJ and Shogun are going to have one last hurrah. It's totally against my betting rules, but I like them both to win impressively

This post from three days ago, two pages back, kind of contradicts you post from a couple above this one ^^. However, I don't hold that against you because I often waffle on fights down the stretch, and your posts are solid. For that, I give you a vote!

sgotwalks - 

Olive Garden Table For One - 

The old lions: BJ and Shogun are going to have one last hurrah. It's totally against my betting rules, but I like them both to win impressively

This post from three days ago, two pages back, kind of contradicts you post from a couple above this one ^^. However, I don't hold that against you because I often waffle on fights down the stretch, and your posts are solid. For that, I give you a vote!

I'm still betting BJ and Shogun, but I'm admitting that some of that is sentiment rather than objective analysis.

BrCutter - 

lol, I took note and voted Lups up like 6 times in the last two days and he went from -29 to -34.  Just got him to -33. Ridiculous that that's an issue.  Again, lol, how the hell do I have about 80 vote ups?  I guess i don't disagree much or my stalkers haven't found me yet.  

Thanks bro. I get frozen like every other day now with the vote downs. I would think that maybe I banged a bunch of dudes' girlfriends or something and they're voting me down out of revenge, but this is the UG....nobody has a real girlfriend. 

Grazie mille

NorthFromHere -

Functional reach is more than just the length of your arms. If you have a long torso, you can lean further and that adds to your actual reach. 

Olive Garden Table For One -

BrCutter - 

lol, I took note and voted Lups up like 6 times in the last two days and he went from -29 to -34.  Just got him to -33. Ridiculous that that's an issue.  Again, lol, how the hell do I have about 80 vote ups?  I guess i don't disagree much or my stalkers haven't found me yet.  

Thanks bro. I get frozen like every other day now with the vote downs. I would think that maybe I banged a bunch of dudes' girlfriends or something and they're voting me down out of revenge, but this is the UG....nobody has a real girlfriend. 

 

Grazie mille

BrCutter - 

NorthFromHere -

Functional reach is more than just the length of your arms. If you have a long torso, you can lean further and that adds to your actual reach. 

100% on. Nobody get carried away with the wingspan. He's 6'5. That jab reaches way the fuck out there with that torso.

BrCutter - 

BaraoKix - 

Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?

How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"

BaraoKix -

BrCutter - 

BaraoKix - 

Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?

How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"

LOL EXACTLY, thats why I said it...



Hes basing his "pick" off a reach advantage that isnt even there. Must be real high end bettor.

Woodford Mike - 

BaraoKix -

BrCutter - 

BaraoKix - 

Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?

How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"

LOL EXACTLY, thats why I said it...



Hes basing his "pick" off a reach advantage that isnt even there. Must be real high end bettor.

Never claimed to be a high end bettor, far from it. Just sharing my thoughts on a message board and asking for feedback. I was wrong about an assumption I made and someone pointed it out (which I appreciate).

lol, no worries Woodford. You were off on the wingspan advantage, but Gustaf still has a large mechanical advantage by virtute of his height and long torso.  It's not because of the wingspan, but he still has a good size advantage because of height and torso, and he also move a TON and from the outside to be able to utilize it.  It's effectively still a good advantage for Gustaf, but for slightly different reasons.  

Unless the variance is significant, the span doesn't matter much.  I realize they always do it on the tale of the tape for the UFC, but they make it out liek x fighter at 80" reach has a jab that is just going to beat up his opponent with a 77" reach.  It's an inch and half on each side, but there are lots of other people factors.  Just a misleading variable a lot of times.  It's very EASY to think Gustaf has long arms since he's 6'5".  

raags - Rory's TD game is severely overrated and BJ will work him on the feet

Benson will manhandle Nate to a 49-46 decision via top control/GnP but maybe get hit and rocked a couple times

Shogun will eat a lot of shots but come forward, Gustaffson is very hittable and Shogun has bombs (and a good TD game) and will score and possibly finish him at some point

Moderate plays on Benson by dec, Penn, and Shogun

In India travelling now but wish I could watch this card. So excited.

Me too, except for the India part. 

mister_sticks - Where are you Loopz?