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Cigars, Beer and Poker Ground >> What are the odds he has quads here?
| 11/13/12 3:35 PM | |
1st Round Armbar
7 
Member Since: 5/26/06 Posts: 886 |
Online 6 max game, I'm in the Big Blind. Folded around to small blind. No reads on small blind as I'd only played a few hands, but he has a full stack so I'm assuming he is decent SB bets 3BB and I call from BB with KJo Flop comes down KQ7 no flush draw. SB bets and I call. Turn is KQ7 Q SB bets again and I call. River is KQ7 Q Q SB shoves for about 1 1/2x pot What do? call or fold? |
| 1/18/13 6:52 PM | |
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Mentaljim
3
Member Since: 9/13/02 Posts: 434 |
Hard to say when you don't know what his starting hand range is. Being first to act and raising would suggest that he has either high paired cards or suited connecting face cards. The action on the river seems a bit strong at 1.5 x pot. Looking at that he could be sitting on poket 7's and the queen on the river his weakened his full house to anyone with a higher pocket pair, a king or the lucky person holding the last queen. |
| 1/18/13 7:00 PM | |
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Mentaljim
3
Member Since: 9/13/02 Posts: 435 |
I would call. |
| 1/23/13 1:10 PM | |
KZTT_HaliChap
16
Member Since: 2/27/11 Posts: 3012 |
You played this hand brutally bad. He doesn't have to have anything good at all to attempt a sb v bb steal. So you could have 3bet pre flop, or raised the flop or turn for info.
You flopped top pair 2nd kicker, in position, against an opponent who SHOULD have a wider range here, yet you let him take control of the hand the whole way.
As played, you have to call. |
| 3/27/13 8:08 PM | |
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andre
133
Member Since: 1/1/01 Posts: 53656 |
I would snap call. I think just calling pre is fine because you have position and you said you don't know anything about his range. I think calling the flop is fine as you likely have the best hand and if he has a naked ace he's drawing to 3 outs, is likely to bet the turn even if he doesn't improve, and you will likely only get called if you raise the flop by a hand that beats you. I think him betting the turn after making trips or better is a good play but depending on the limits/skill of the person it's probably more likely he checks to induce you to bluff at it. Your call on the flop represents the 7 (if he has the queen) more than it does the king, so his betting the turn shouldnt bring him any more money if he has the queen. That said, some players will bet it--and I personally prefer playing it this way--when they turn trips because the expectation is that you will check trips and let the BB bet for you, at least at the lower limits. Once the 3 queen hits the board it is safe to simply call it a cooler if he has you beat, because odds are strongly against it. I would think AA is more likely. |
| 3/28/13 11:08 AM | |
VectorWega
Member Since: 4/7/08 Posts: 15982 |
Depending on the bet sizing, I could actually find a fold on the turn here. As played, given stack sizes it would be silly to fold this river with no reads. |
| 3/28/13 12:12 PM | |
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andre
133
Member Since: 1/1/01 Posts: 53665 |
VectorWega - Depending on the bet sizing, I could actually find a fold on the turn here. As played, given stack sizes it would be silly to fold this river with no reads.With no reads on the villain I'd find it hard to fold the turn. As you said though, there is probably a bet size that would get me to fold simply because the board lacks draws except for JT and a couple of gutshot draws, and most people don't double barrel air. What limits was this at? 
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| 3/28/13 12:14 PM | |
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andre
133
Member Since: 1/1/01 Posts: 53666 |
But to answer the thread title, I think the odds are 1:45.
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| 3/28/13 12:16 PM | |
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andre
133
Member Since: 1/1/01 Posts: 53667 |
I'm rusty though.. Could be 2:45.
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