UFC 131: Junior Dos Santos opens a -155 favorite over Brock Lesnar

by Dann Stupp and George Garcia | source: mmajunkie.com
 

Junior Dos Santos has opened a slight favorite over fellow UFC heavyweight contender Brock Lesnar.

Noted MMA oddsmaker and frequent radio guest Joey Oddessa (@MMAOdds) today told MMAjunkie.com he's set the initial line at -155 in favor of Dos Santos, which gives him an approximately 61 percent chance of defeating Lesnar (+125).

As MMAjunkie.com first reported earlier this week, UFC 131 is expected to take place June 11 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, though officials still are finalizing the date and venue.

Read entire article...

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Recent Comments »

sawdusk site profile image  

2/1/11 12:09 PM by sawdusk

I only wish it were so easy...it's so surprising though to hear from a pro that the real game is in everything but actually picking the winners! I figured that's where most of the time was spent, reviewing tapes and breaking down fighters, getting info on how their training is going, and who is sick, and who just broke up with their girlfriend, but this whole other side of gambling escapes me... when I consistently start picking winners, then I'll start worrying about the numbers... get that book deal, oddessa!! you're sitting on fascinating stuff that scores of people would love to read, and I'm not talking about trade secrets, just the stuff you touch on in these posts are gold...

JohhnyBGood site profile image  

2/1/11 11:46 AM by JohhnyBGood

Lesnar comes out slow pawing at JDS, gets jabbed a few times, closes distance by putting his head in and charging JDS, gets caught with a hook, bear hug and gets junior to one knee, junior gets back up, repeat twice, then Lesnar quits and takes a hard shot, Lesnar curls into a ball. JDS wins TKO first round

Donk696 site profile image  

2/1/11 11:45 AM by Donk696

Oddessa how do you stay under the book's radar?Do they look for guys that beat the final line or do they look at how much you've made?When bookmaker opened up Machida at -200, i jumped on it knowing it was way low but I thought this is just bringing in bad attention to myself. I thought maybe it's better to take the sharper line later and just make less money knowing they don't notice you.All books seem to hate winners but if they manage to balance the action on both sides and keep the juice surely it doesn't matter who wins...Maybe with todays technology books will move to bet exchanges that hopefully don't fuck you over with premium charges.Good stuff as always Joey.

Oddessa site profile image  

2/1/11 10:53 AM by Oddessa

I find it  better to wait for books to copy...the odds gets out there...good and bad...if u miss it...u pass...but so many opinions on fights and so many experts that cant pick a show  horse in 3 horse race out there and casinos/sportsbooks that are sleeping on stage/counter...if you have enough outs..you can hunt down the money...if u stay under the radar.. in the end...u  may miss out on some potentiallly 'great' numbers....but hindsight always 100%...u also have to take into account the money you may save on not making  losing wagers...-> Coy in strikeforce was good example last week...peple jumpoed on him at low opener and smart money came of moore late...higdsight 100% Once a person can get over the could/woulda/shouda's and looks at each fight like any other fight...u will find that no one bout is a 'superbowl' and the game or bout shouldnt be worth 10x more of a wager than any other..because as we know..anyone can lose on any given sunday.... as far as hitten the number early...i am in diff possition than most... working in the industry...betting an early number at say -125 and driving it to -220 on 2-3 bets of  $250 or less...doesnt do it for me..because it sharpens up the books number..unless i throw out a donkey phoney bet or 2 to manipulate the dumbasses on stage...and they write against the action...if they consider it sharp...which if they didnt..my limits wouldnt suk , I wouldnt have to phoney up a number, and  i would have them pulling rabbit ears and scartching their heads saying mma isnt good for the books... smart bookmakers move off faces, smart money,  and solid information..if they can sort it out...thats the key ..sortiing it all out....identifying the donkey money from the smart money....and sorting out the good info from theingfo already factored into the number... not touts, expert opinions, insiders, trainers, fighters, and/or tv inet promos.. picking winners is the ez part....getting down on bets, money management, and getting paid when you win.....well...unfortunately...thats where the real race starts and....finishes...

Oddessa site profile image  

2/1/11 10:52 AM by Oddessa

I find it  better to wait for books to copy...the odds gets out there...good and bad...if u miss it...u pass...but so many opinions on fights and so many experts that cant pick a show  horse in 3 horse race out there and casinos/sportsbooks that are sleeping on stage/counter...if you have enough outs..you can hunt down the money...if u stay under the radar.. in the end...u  may miss out on some potentiallly 'great' numbers....but hindsight always 100%...u also have to take into account the money you may save on not making  losing wagers...-> Coy in strikeforce was good example last week...peple jumpoed on him at low opener and smart money came of moore late...higdsight 100% Once a person can get over the could/woulda/shouda's and looks at each fight like any other fight...u will find that no one bout is a 'superbowl' and the game or bout shouldnt be worth 10x more of a wager than any other..because as we know..anyone can lose on any given sunday.... as far as hitten the number early...i am in diff possition than most... working in the industry...betting an early number at say -125 and driving it to -220 on 2-3 bets of  $250 or less...doesnt do it for me..because it sharpens up the books number..unless i throw out a donkey phoney bet or 2 to manipulate the dumbasses on stage...and they write against the action...if they consider it sharp...which if they didnt..my limits wouldnt suk , I wouldnt have to phoney up a number, and  i would have them pulling rabbit ears and scartching their heads saying mma isnt good for the books... smart bookmakers move off faces, smart money,  and solid information..if they can sort it out...thats the key ..sortiing it all out....identifying the donkey money from the smart money....and sorting out the good info from theingfo already factored into the number... not touts, expert opinions, insiders, trainers, fighters, and/or tv inet promos.. picking winners is the ez part....getting down on bets, money management, and getting paid when you win.....well...unfortunately...thats where the real race starts and....finishes...

SportSharpener site profile image  

2/1/11 12:20 AM by SportSharpener

Would you argue that you can make more money by waiting until the books raise their limits instead of hitting the line early and on fight day? I would assume so...but what about the books that offer 100-250 at open, and the max only reaches $500? Wouldn't it generally be more profitable to hit it early? Thank you for your thread contributions.

hellride site profile image  

1/31/11 6:55 PM by hellride

this is great info Oddessa.. thanks for taking the time.

SeditiousViciousness site profile image  

1/31/11 6:37 PM by SeditiousViciousness

I'll sum this whole thing up in two sentences: "If you think Brock has no chance of beating JDS, you're an idiot. If you think Brock has a good chance or beating JDS, you're also an idiot." JDS excels in the area that Lesnar is weakest, and there's no guarantee Lesnar will dominate him on the mat or even be able to get him there.

Oddessa site profile image  

1/31/11 6:08 PM by Oddessa

books can refuse anyones action.....I dont bet huge...nothin like BW and to even say me in same sentence is insult to his bank and brains....but  I stopped getting mad about limits and being kicked out of books for winning after 2007...now I  just accept it for what it is...no books like winners... I have euro sportsbooks that cut me to $18 limits..and some of the biggest offshore books only want $25 (circled so 12.50)  to $250 a bet on MMA... i just take what I can get at reassonable limits...500 and up......but  refuse to bet low limit..and sharpen a books line up...  till the wager limits raise...but gotta sneak thru beards 90% of time anyways......or I just pass on the fight even at rididiclously  bad number....rather than wake up the dead with a $250  wager.. knowing I'd rather beat a spot for a big number over a year than a medium amt in a month.. 

sawdusk site profile image  

1/20/11 8:32 AM by sawdusk

interesting... surprised the book would be afraid to accept a 11K bet from a stranger like that... how does walters get any significant money bet on these games if this is the case? especially if the books suspected the bettors were runners for him?oddessa, what is your opinion on procedures like this for a book? do you think a book should stand behind it's numbers and take on all bets? or a business is a business and they have to do whatever it takes to reduce risk and ensure profit?



 

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