Dos Santos opens as betting favorite, but early action is on Carwin

source: mmajunkie.com
 

With one-time heavyweight title challenger Shane Carwin announced as a replacement opponent for Lesnar in a UFC 131 main event with Junior Dos Santos, noted oddsmaker and frequent MMAjunkie.com Radio (www.mmajunkie.com/radio) guest Joey Oddessa opened the Brazilian slugger as a -260 favorite, meaning a bettor would need to wager $260 in order to earn $100 of the book's money.

Meanwhile, Carwin opened as a +200 underdog, meaning a $100 wager would return a bettor $200 of the book's money in addition to the original wager amount.

The opening line likely will be picked up by most major sportsbooks.

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The above was from an MMAJunkie.com Radio interview. Since the interview, Joey Odessa posted on the Underground, stating that although Dos Santos opened as a favorite, all the early action has been on his opponent Shane Carwin:

Opened JDS -260 but its been all Carwin

From: Oddessa
Member Since: 6/8/02
Posts: 18164

Opened JDS at -260 betting fav..slightly better than 2 1/2 to 1 betting favorite but its been all Carwin support early...down to JDS -225...

6-11-2011-Ultimate Fighting Championships 131
Junior Dos Santos -225
Shane Carwin +185

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Recent Comments »

Scott Rotem site profile image  

5/13/11 12:44 PM by Scott Rotem

+155 now.

Oddessa site profile image  

5/13/11 10:39 AM by Oddessa

 down to -200/+160 this morning...  JDS a 2-1 fav..

DaemonDragon site profile image  

5/12/11 10:04 PM by DaemonDragon

Carwin has never shown great takedowns, he might possess them but we haven't seen it. And his technical form against Wain was unimpressive. It wasn't impressive against Mir either, although who knows if he was telling the truth with his post-fight story of he wasn't really trying to take him down.Wain also had no problems in the clinch against Carwin, he got out of the clinch with ease, which is another area where people keep saying Carwin will win. People just get brainwashed by these Mir fights because they don't realize how different Mir is than other fighters, he does not resist control. Other fighters resist.Also given JDS' strong reputation for scrambling, and of course his legendary uppercut against Werdum, I don't think Carwin will be looking to spam takedowns. He'll probably be pretty careful with takedowns. I think takedowns will be a part of his gameplan against a striker like JDS, but I see him being conservative going for them, looking to time them while JDS is punching and such. Also, we have absolutely no idea if Carwin has good top control. For all we know JDS pops up instantly. Or maybe Carwin's top control is beastly and even the athletic JDS won't be able to get up. Hard to say.However this fight is very unlikely to go to decision, so Carwin would need to hurt JDS if he gets him down. It's unclear if he can do this. We have so little data on Carwin. His GnP against Wain was very unimpressive until he achieved mount, likewise his GnP vs. Lesnar was unimpressive. I highly doubt Carwin would mount JDS and we don't know if he can GnP him from guard. And that's if he can hold him down at all.JDS is the rightful favorite IMO, although Carwin is quite capable of brutally KTFOing anybody out there so he's a very live dog. JDS is simply more proven and Carwin has lots of question marks. But, that Carwin right hand is a killer, perhaps the most dangerous shot in MMA right now other than an Uberknee.

rosario01 site profile image  

5/12/11 9:41 PM by rosario01

I just put 30 on Carwin at plus 185.. Carwin has superior wrestling and granite fists

Rucking Fetard site profile image  

5/12/11 9:34 PM by Rucking Fetard

Carwin will take JDS down at ease if he cant ko him easy win for Carwin imo

Magicmaninthesky site profile image  

5/12/11 9:33 PM by Magicmaninthesky

Shane's gonna wreck JDS. Bet the house on it.

jjj2121 site profile image  

5/12/11 9:14 PM by jjj2121

 Possible, and we've never seen JDS on his back.

condor3470 site profile image  

5/12/11 9:05 PM by condor3470

What if Carwin wrestlefucks JDS? I feel like everyone is playing this out like for sure its going to be banged out on the feet, but Carwin is a very strong wrestler.

jjj2121 site profile image  

5/12/11 9:01 PM by jjj2121

 I know Oddessa has loved Cain for a long long time.  My guess would be Cain slight fave in -140 or so range.

DaemonDragon site profile image  

5/12/11 9:00 PM by DaemonDragon

Hopefully Odessa can answer a question - what would you set a Cain vs. Overeem line at? If the fight were to happen in a few months.Also are there any HWs other than Cain who you'd set as a favorite over Overeem?



 

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