UFC 138 comes to us on tape delay from the UK this weekend; it features no shortage of fights that, at least on paper, seem a little bit lopsided.
UFC 138 main card bout odds
Chris Leben (+200) vs. Mark Munoz (-255)
Munoz has improved his all-around game greatly in the past couple years, so if he has to he can hold his own on the feet with Leben, at least for a little while. The smart play would be putting Leben on his back and keeping him there.
Brad Pickett (+105) vs. Renan Barao (-135)
Barao's winning streak is impressive on paper, but it's one thing to beat local dudes in Brazil and quite another to take on an experienced opponent like Pickett in his home country.
Thiago Alves (-300) vs. Papy Abedi (+230)
These UK cards are usually great opportunities for lesser-known European fighters to get beat up by UFC mainstays, which is exactly what oddsmakers think is going on here.
Terry Etim (-600) vs. Eddie Faaloloto (+400)
Etim makes a comeback in front of his countrymen, and it seems like he might be getting a bit of a softball. Faaloloto is inexperienced, and didn't even make it out of the first round in his only UFC fight
Cyrille Diabate (-400) vs. Anthony Perosh (+300)
The Australian Perosh takeson French kickboxer Diabate in an old school striker-versus-grappler match. As you can see, oddsmakers like the striker's chances, and with good reason. Diabate is not only dangerous on the feet, he's also learned to use his lanky frame on the mat in recent years.
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How Fight Odds Work
Unlike a spread on a football game where one team is getting a certain amount of points (ex. Saints +7), in MMA fights the line on the game is what's called a money line.
Chris Leben (+200)
Mark Munoz (-255)
In this fight, Munoz would be the favorite and at -255 it means for every $2.55 you bet, you will win $1 if he wins the fight. So if you bet $255 on Munoz and he wins, you'd profit $100. If Munoz were to lose though, you'd lose the full $255.
If you were to bet on Leben at +200, you would would win $2.00 for every $1 you bet. So if you bet $100 on Leben and he wins the fight, you will profit $200. If Leben were to lose the fight, you'd lose your original $100 bet.
Depending on how people are betting on the fights, the odds will shift from the moment they open up right up until the night of the fight.
UFC 138: Leben vs. Muñoz
November 5, 2011
The event will air on the same day, via tape delay, on Spike TV in the U.S. and live on Sportsnet in Canada.
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