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UnderGround Forums >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky


7/29/11 12:01 PM
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jjj2121
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Dr Violence - 
jjj2121 - 
Dr Violence - This is an interesting card with lots of 'name' fighters being fairly big underdogs - Scott Smith, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler underdogs to Tarec Saffiedene, Tyron Woodley, Tim Kennedy. A changing of the guard?

 Not touching Lawler/Kennedy, that Daley line shocks me...I know Woodley is a stud wrestler, but he's really really green.  Semtex did a nice job working back to his feet against Koscheck, how many times does he need to be on the feet for him to chincheck Woodley?  Very interesting fight.  I think Saffiedine beats up Smith.
I like Paul but I just have too many bad memories of him getting flustered by guys who can mix in takedowns. Koscheck is one. Masvidal kind of did it but was too small. Azeredo a few years back is another. I feel like there's a comfort zone he needs to be in to really perform on the feet, so I guess it comes down to whether Woodley lets him to get into that zone.

 Agree totally, but Semtex at over 2-1?  Wow.
7/29/11 12:20 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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 Lupo Locks

 

Saffeidine -260. I see this fight as the end of the line of the Scott Smith train. Smith has had a nice run of exciting fights and dramatic outcomes, but that takes a toll on a guy and he’s running close to empty IMO. I see this fight as Tarec picking him apart and getting a merciful late stoppage. Smith has incredible power and heart, but I, as a rule usually bet against guys who rely on heart.

 

 

Robbie Lawler +220- I like Kennedy, he’s a total package and a promoter’s dream, but Lawler is showing up to crash the coming out party. I fully expect Robbie to take a beating en route to a shocking stoppage. He’ll look lost and on his way to a loss and then unleash the Filipino Fury His MMA striking is some of the best in the sport and his wrestling is there if he needs it. I see both guys as being top 15 in the division and the +220 jumps out at me as being a bit off when a fighter has Lawler’s skills.

 

I’m having issues with Woodley-Daley. I think the odds should be much closer than they are, so if you’re feeling Daley, bet him. He’s coming off of an absolute war with Diaz and has 3 rounds to catch Woodley which is a long time. I also have difficulty betting against someone who has shown poor wrestling in the past against a very good wrestler, but Woodley has looked less than spectacular in the past. Gun to my head, I bet Daley because of the odds. Strikeforce fights are known for being dramatic and I see some ‘holy shit’ drama happening in this one.

 

Coenen-125. This isn’t a beauty contest. She’s going to submit Tate. Tate will take her down after getting outclassed by kicks and punch combos and Coenen will secure a sub from the guard.

 

Fedor and Hendo is a dream matchups. IMO 2 of the 5 best to ever participate in the sport. Fedor is coming off of 2 losses that dropped his stock off the cliff. People point to the size factor in the Bigfoot fight, but Fedor looked to be a man without a plan who tried to Wang and was unsuccessful and looked like a fish on the ground. This is not the Fedor of 04-06. He’s abandoned what made him great: his striking to clinch to GnP/sub transitions and has become a one dimensional boxer using a boxing style that compliments his former fighting style. He fell in love with his new found KO power when he came to the states and has looked off ever since.

 

Hendo is an undersized 40 year old who has also become wholly reliant on something other than what made him great. He’s become a one punch wonder with an Olympic wrestling pedigree that he no longer uses.

 

Fedor appears to be fitter, faster and rededicated if you believe his camp and commentators, but I think he’s a guy who no longer has his heart in the sport. God’s will has replaced his desire to eliminate an opponent who wants to return him to a poorer period. Unfortunately, there is no way to change that type of hazardous thinking going into a huge fight. The question is: Is Fedor motivated enough by his own pride to put the brakes on a 3 fight skid and prolong his active fighting career? Are you willing to lay 2 to get one on your answer to that question? I’m not.

 

Neither man has ever been KO’d and I don’t see that happening here. The only chance for a stoppage is Fedor rocking Dan and quick subbing him. Otherwise, I have Hendo taking a decision in a lackluster affair, by being able to control Fedor in the cage. I have never bet against Fedor, but Fedor isn’t Fedor anymore. Regardless of the outcome, I’ll be disappointed as a fan of MMA and both guys.

7/29/11 12:35 PM
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Dr Violence
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Dude, great writeup but what a downer of an ending. 
7/29/11 1:46 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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Stu P Dasso -  Not really 'locks' if you give picks for all the main card fights. Phone Post

 avoid Woodley-Daley. Enjoy Hendo-Fedor as a fan. Rest are money makers
7/29/11 3:36 PM
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Dublin_Huntington
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 TTT
7/31/11 12:53 AM
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evilwankel
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I took all your bets! Didn't pan out as expected... Phone Post
7/31/11 1:09 AM
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jjj2121
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 ^^^

Ouch.

Signed,

100 on Hendo at +180 + 25 UG bet on Hendo
100 on Tate at EVEN + 25 UG bet on Tate

= we eat steak tonight!
7/31/11 1:20 AM
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jjj2121
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 I doubt whether you have 100 to bet.  I back up my bullshit.  You talk.
7/31/11 1:49 AM
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Team GDP
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damn where did you get hendo at +180? or should i say when?
7/31/11 1:50 AM
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jjj2121
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Team GDP - damn where did you get hendo at +180? or should i say when?

 Monday morning, dude on another thread posted his ticket...he got +190.  Line was right around there all week, did it move late?  I never looked.
7/31/11 1:53 AM
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Team GDP
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i looked today. hendo was +205 on bodog. and i think +230 or +240 on 5dimes. I saw one line as high as +250, not sure what website.
7/31/11 9:02 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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evilwankel -  I took all your bets! Didn't pan out as expected... Phone Post

 Robbie pissed that fight away and BJM was too lax in his refereeing for Wodley-Daley (should have been stood up 3 mins earlier in round 2. MMA betting ain't easy. Winning $$$ on a Fedor loss feels dirty
7/31/11 11:03 PM
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evilwankel
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Bobby Lupo -
evilwankel -  I took all your bets! Didn't pan out as expected... Phone Post

 Robbie pissed that fight away and BJM was too lax in his refereeing for Wodley-Daley (should have been stood up 3 mins earlier in round 2. MMA betting ain't easy. Winning $$$ on a Fedor loss feels dirty
Actually just took saffediene, coenen and lawlor...you seemed most confident in those. I didn't even get a chance to watch. Phone Post
8/1/11 8:01 AM
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jjj2121
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Team GDP - i looked today. hendo was +205 on bodog. and i think +230 or +240 on 5dimes. I saw one line as high as +250, not sure what website.

 Yup you are right, must have been some late Fedor money rolling in because the closing number was more lopsided than the line for most of the week.

Dan Henderson +240 +255 +205 +236 +225 +210 +241 +175 +210 +250 Show index graph
Fedor Emelianenko -260 -315 -265 -264 -285 -280 -272 -250 -280 -300 Show index graph

8/1/11 9:57 AM
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Jsteven
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Good thing Tate won or I would have had a clean sweep of losses. 
8/2/11 5:55 PM
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Team GDP
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lupo's locks for ufc 133!
8/6/11 11:21 AM
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Team GDP
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up for jjj
8/6/11 11:39 AM
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jjj2121
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 jjj's top 3

RoryMac - Pyle is very solid, but I'm a buyer in the RoryMac hype.  I think he's a contender and soon.  He was 10 seconds away from beating Carlos freaking Condit who is 1 fight away from a title shot.

Hallman - I think Ebersole fought a zombified Lytle in his debut.  You simply can't fight anywhere near your potential if you had your meniscus yanked out 4 weeks out.  Think Hallman grapples his way to victory.

Pierce - Just like I am on the RoryMac wagon, I am not on the Hendricks wagon.  I just don't see it.    I think this looks a lot like Hendricks' fight with Rick Story...he gets cracked on the feet and starts shooting from way out on his way to a decision loss.

Maybe a flier on Tito because the line is so ridiculous.


8/6/11 12:11 PM
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Team GDP
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jjj2121 -  jjj's top 3

RoryMac - Pyle is very solid, but I'm a buyer in the RoryMac hype.  I think he's a contender and soon.  He was 10 seconds away from beating Carlos freaking Condit who is 1 fight away from a title shot.

Hallman - I think Ebersole fought a zombified Lytle in his debut.  You simply can't fight anywhere near your potential if you had your meniscus yanked out 4 weeks out.  Think Hallman grapples his way to victory.

Pierce - Just like I am on the RoryMac wagon, I am not on the Hendricks wagon.  I just don't see it.    I think this looks a lot like Hendricks' fight with Rick Story...he gets cracked on the feet and starts shooting from way out on his way to a decision loss.

Maybe a flier on Tito because the line is so ridiculous.




i too like rory but not enough to lay almost 3-1

i'm betting on ebersole in this fight

last fight i have no opinion and am therefore staying away
8/6/11 12:20 PM
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jjj2121
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^^^

Good luck, think Ebersole is overvalued off of the Lytle fight.
8/6/11 12:25 PM
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TheAssMurderer
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jjj2121 - ^^^

Good luck, think Ebersole is overvalued off of the Lytle fight.<br type="_moz" />


What do you think about the Belfort fight?
8/6/11 12:29 PM
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Team GDP
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jjj2121 - ^^^

Good luck, think Ebersole is overvalued off of the Lytle fight.<br type="_moz" />


not gunna lie this is more a bet because i'm on the twas train than anything else.

and i like belfort but the odds arent worth it imo
8/6/11 12:29 PM
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jjj2121
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TheAssMurderer - 
jjj2121 - ^^^

Good luck, think Ebersole is overvalued off of the Lytle fight.<br type="_moz" />


What do you think about the Belfort fight?
Would be Akiyama or no play for me.  Akiyama is durable and Vitor can be broken.  Don't like Akiyama enough to bet it (I don't want action on a ton of fights, like to play 2-3 max and enjoy the rest) but if you said I had to bet it, I'd bet on the dog.
 
8/6/11 1:17 PM
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TheAssMurderer
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jjj2121 - 
TheAssMurderer - 
jjj2121 - ^^^

Good luck, think Ebersole is overvalued off of the Lytle fight.<br type="_moz" />


What do you think about the Belfort fight?
Would be Akiyama or no play for me.  Akiyama is durable and Vitor can be broken.  Don't like Akiyama enough to bet it (I don't want action on a ton of fights, like to play 2-3 max and enjoy the rest) but if you said I had to bet it, I'd bet on the dog.
 


Yeah I'm kinda iffy on this fight. Akiyama hasnt fought in close to a year. He's japanese, though, so that doesnt mean shit.
8/6/11 1:25 PM
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RickRude
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parlay McDonald, Ebersole, Akiyama, Rashad...mix in some Tito and Phillipou Phone Post

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