UnderGround Forums
 

Money, Business & Finance Ground >> Silver and Gold


11/20/08 8:15 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
bartos
6 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 4023
 
I bought a gold krugerrand (1 ounce) and some junk silver coins 2 weeks ago and had been planning on investing more of my money. Maybe even most of my savings that I won't be needing in the next 6 months or so. However I am reading now about the deflation of the US dollar could continue and some have speculated that gold could go down to $500 per ounce. But then others have said Obama's spending and the bailouts cause the price of gold to go up.

So I turn to the OG. What is your take on investing in gold and silver for a relatively short period of time? like 6 months or so.
11/20/08 10:12 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
RedApple
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 247
Deflation will continue for at least another 3-6 months. Then we could see a shift towards inflation.

Watch the T-bill market, once yields start to move back up consistently then gold could be a good purchase.

Gold and silver- short term no, long term yes
11/22/08 1:10 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Hank Scorpio
2 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 5/11/08
Posts: 77
safehaven.com and howestreet.com are some good gold bug websites for reading analysis.

Right now, cash is king!
11/22/08 1:10 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Hank Scorpio
2 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 11/22/08 1:10 PM
Member Since: 5/11/08
Posts: 78
oops
11/22/08 1:10 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Hank Scorpio
2 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 11/22/08 1:10 PM
Member Since: 5/11/08
Posts: 79
oops
11/22/08 1:10 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Hank Scorpio
2 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 11/22/08 1:10 PM
Member Since: 5/11/08
Posts: 80
oops
11/22/08 2:22 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
bartos
6 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 4034
Gold just jumped $50 friday.
11/22/08 7:49 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
eraserx13
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/2/03
Posts: 212
i would disagree with redapple. inflation will mostlikely not be a risk after 3-6 months. what we are seeing is a massive change in the global economy that might rival the great depression. things will turn around eventually but it might take years. with the absence of credit, demand has fallen and will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. while some commodity prices such as oil could increase due to longer term supply factors, inflation in the form of asset prices like real estate and wages may flatten and possibly decline.

if the 'what goes down must come up argument comes up', remember that changes in the trend of inflation takes years to occur. right now, even the federal reserve and ben bernanke has stated that deflation risk is a real possibility.

obama's spending in theory should boast up asset prices such as gold but the time frame for that could be 5-10 years. before such things take effect, you could see drops in the short term. if your time horizon is 6 months, you should examine your risk tolerance. if you cannot lose any money, investments such as gold and silver is pretty much speculative in nsture and may not be the most suitable for you...regardless of your viewpoints.

discipline over conviction in this market.
11/29/08 1:35 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Charlie Waffles
1 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/12/07
Posts: 140
Although it has not happened yet, credit is thawing....slowly. I am on the mortgage end and have already seen it opening up again. With rates going down so low, it is going to boost a lot of numbers for banks, and witht he extra savings homeowners will get from lower mortage rates, retail companies should start to see increased spending. People with good credit have low rates, and people with bad credit or upside down properites have modifications. So within the next 12 motnhs everyone home owner will save money on their loans and it is the American way to spend, which will not be as much as typical, but better than it has been.

That being said, there are lots of theories out there about gold. One of them is that when the Dow came into existence it was valued the same as gold was. Some people theorise that in this depression the Dow will drop to 2500 and gold will rise that high. But, there also is the idea of the rich man always doing th opposite of what everyone else is doing. He is buying properties now to sell to investors in the future. And while people are buying houses, he will be buying gold. Generally, very cheap in good realestate markets.
1/1/09 3:54 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Buddhadev
21 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 3459
I bought on gold's Oct low. No regrets so far!
1/2/09 1:53 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Plumbata
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 12/4/08
Posts: 8
Easiest way to invest in gold and silver are the ETFs. They trade like stocks. Looks them up. Their symbols are

GLD
SLV

They've both done quite well for me.
1/3/09 5:01 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Hank Scorpio
2 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 5/11/08
Posts: 112
Keep in mind that though these are easy, they also have some risk in that all you are owning is 'paper'. FDR did confiscate gold in the 30s, and I wouldn't put it past Obama or future administrations to do the same assuming mass inflation occurs. If that were to happen again, gold ETFs would be easy targets.
1/4/09 3:31 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Plumbata
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 12/4/08
Posts: 14
Hank,

True but in that scenario hoarding any physical gold in private hands would be illegal. Not everyone wants to be a criminal. And if gold is illegal how are you supposed to make $ from it unless you sell to other criminals?

I guess it depends how worried you really are. You don't have to be super paranoid to still profit from gold and an easy way to do that is to buy the ETFs.

For most people buying the physical gold in large quantities is costly and burdensome.
1/4/09 3:37 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Buddhadev
21 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 3462
I think there's something to be said for both theories.

Right now the added premium on physical precious metals is why I went with the ETFs.
1/4/09 6:57 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
feralpig
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 7/24/08
Posts: 203
Deflation over your time frame, but all that money being pumped into the economy has got to create inflation over the long run.

I periodically check out the premium of 10 year nominal Treasuries over 10 year TIPS as an inflation measure.

It's nice because it gives a market price, so to speak--you're not just relying on government numbers.
1/6/09 1:49 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Buddhadev
21 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 3463
Z guard - Why would the government confiscate physical gold, how is this legal?


It's not legal (constitutional), but who's going to stop them?
2/17/09 7:24 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
TheRealPINKY
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 5/13/03
Posts: 1683
i just bought some gold ETF iShares today,

what are some people's 3month, 6month, 1,2,5 year prediction on the price of gold?
2/17/09 7:26 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
TheRealPINKY
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 5/13/03
Posts: 1684
is it better to buy gold or silver? ive read that silver:gold ratio can skyrocket (or crash) in certain situations, any suggestion why the best time is to buy one vs the other?
2/17/09 9:43 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
T-Man
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 1224
I remember talking shit on gold on this forum a while ago, but slowly changed my tune (i.e. read crash proof/saw carnage in the market) and picked some up a while ago... I got IAU as well.

Pretty brave getting in now seeing as how its a 7 month high or something, but honestly I think it'll go up more.

There is an average Gold/Silver ratio and i think compared to the average silver is undervalued relative to gold right now so it may be a better buy, but who knows. Crazy shit is happening.
2/21/09 2:10 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Buddhadev
21 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 3498
I've been feeling totally smug since I called the low in precious metals perfectly after the financial crisis.

If I had had the balls to completely cash out of stocks and go 50% GLD and 50% SLV, I'd be doing a lot better now. As it is, my portfolio is currently...

35% GLD
30% SLV
20% EZY
15% FXY

This portfolio was set up in late Oct. I shake my head wondering why I ever listen to "mainstream" types who cautioned people like me to "hedge" our bets on precious metals. Those people have cost me about $10,000 I could have made.
6/14/09 11:29 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
worldfightfan
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/4/06
Posts: 1493
deflationary forces on one end, inflationary forces on the other. I think that in addition to hedging against inflation you are also hedging against a dollar collapse by holding gold (meaning other currencies still hold while the US $ falls).

Even Mish who called deflation 100% is saying that gold will go up in the deflationary environment.
8/26/09 10:55 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
koreviewz
1 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 09/16/09 7:40 PM
Member Since: 11/22/08
Posts: 504
Make Real Cash From Home, OWNER
 We are NOT experiencing DEFLATION.  The value of the dollar is going down and continues to suck.  As long as the dollar is sucking, precious metals will be strong.  Don't worry about inflation/deflation necessarily.  Just look at the strength of the dollar.  I've also made a lot of money in mining stocks.

Read "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar".  Everything in it has come true and made me money.

www.wealthsearch.info
 

Reply Post

You must log in to post a reply. Click here to login.