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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> I'll never understand this level of bad play


5/31/10 4:25 PM
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andre
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The hand starts at around 2:35. I'm sure Tamayo is ten times the player I am, but I really cant get the call on the river. The call on the turn was bad enough, but the call on the river was too much. Do you think it's the cameras that makes a player lose all sense, or do you think he was on a heater and thought he was reading perfectly?
5/31/10 6:04 PM
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PR
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Well, the thing you always have to keep in mind is that we see the hand completely out of context. So you can almost never conclusively say "wow that guy made a bad play".

Secondly, we often dont get even basic info, like blind sizes, number of players at the table, antes, or stack sizes of the players.

Thirdly, yes, of course players can make mistakes.

Here's my analysis, keeping the above in mind.

1) Tamayo decides to not reraise AKs preflop. This is a non-standard play. So he's obvious got something in mind, for him to not reraise. Watching the entire hand, I get the impression he decided the other guy was over aggro and he was trapping him.

2) Usually what happens when you dont reraise AK preflop, you tend to overplay postflop because you want to get value from it. If feels like suc a waste to call with AK, then just fold the flop.

Its tough for the guy to hit a QQJ flop because the board is paired. So Tamayo is likely thinking, "he has a wide range" (meaning hes playing a lot of hands) "it is standard for him to bet any flop no matter if he has a hand or absolutely nothing" and "even if he has something that is ahead like 99 I have lots of outs to pull ahead" (T, K, A)

So Tamayo has a lot of options. However the big problem is that he is out of position. This hand would be infinitely easier for him to play if he had position. This hand really shows how important position is. Tamayo is shackled by it.

But once the turn bet is announced his options are cut by more than half because he now only has one card left to suck out with instead of two, and the other guy is showing more strength by betting the turn instead of checking.

The river of course is worse. But step 1 on the river is to calculate the pot odds his bet is giving Tamayo. When you call, you dont need to be right all the time.

Typically, as long as you think you have >33% of winning, a call is more correct than a fold.

Also by calling, it will make it a lot harder for that guy to bluff you in the future, because you have shown him you can call him down.
5/31/10 11:34 PM
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andre
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PR,

Thanks again for the great analysis.

I dont think I'll ever understand calling all the way down a hand, and giving away over half my stack, with A-high. I'm wondering what hand he put Kopp on. 10-9? K-9?

Had Tamayo raised on the turn and then folded when Kopp pushed back, I would have thought it made sense, but I just cant see any sound justification for that play no matter what the context. I get that you arent really justifying it, just explaining the thought process that probably led to it, and I appreciate it.
6/1/10 3:25 AM
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PR
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Yeah it's def a unusual play, and that's probably why it made it on TV
6/1/10 8:28 AM
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VectorWega
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 If the turn or river hit Kopp he probably checks the river.  Many times if he has a jack, he checks the river.  If he has an underpair, he checks the river.  Tamayo beats any bluff there so it's likely that he wins this hand unless opponent has a very strong hand.
6/1/10 3:24 PM
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JHR
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Listen, I ran the numbers...

In the end, I figured out that Leo Margets is hot as fuck.

:)

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