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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> opinion, please


6/16/10 4:00 PM
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joe canada
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Been chewing on a hand for about a week.

Cash, 3/6 live.

Most everyone has 50-100BB (early in the night, obviously)

Limped pot, I'm on the button. SB and BB and passive callers (and mouth breathers)

Two callers in front of me, no real interest behind me, so I call the BB with 10-8 assuming we'll go five handed.

SB min raises to 3BB which I consider absolute idiocy, as everyone is coming along. Everyone does. Five handed to the flop

10 high flop, three spades. SB bets 1/2 pot three callers behind. I have a bit more than pot left back and decide to jam.

Folds around to the CU, who calls with the 8 high made flush.

My question is not whether I should have shoved -- the only one I was worried about was the SB, and I read him well enough to know he didn;t have it in his hand.

I figured anyone else would likely raise the made flush unless it's the nut, and even if it's the nut they likely want to get some money in the middle in case the fourth spade hits killing the action.

here's my question: Am I an idiot, or is the CU? Seems to me that if you're on the CU with only the button left to act behind you, it's pretty low ev to let it go by.

On the other hand, if the spade doesn't hit on the turn and the board doesn't pair you do get the chance to let other people drive a pot into you where you can get some more money in.

This hand has been bothering me a lot, because for me letting that go by is fairly reckless.

...Or maybe it's because he hit me for 100BB not 10 minutes earlier 10 high flushing into my set of KK


What say you?
6/16/10 4:25 PM
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joesonshuevos
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 IMO too many people in the hand to shove with just 1 pair and a made hand on board. 
6/16/10 5:07 PM
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joe canada
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joeson -- I agree it's risky, but

1) it's not much more than pot sized
2) the preflop raiser would have hammered anything real he hit
3) i assumed from past experience that anyone with a real hand at that table would want to defend it, rather than call (overcall) a 1/2 pot bet into a five handed flop.
4) the preflop raiser obviously had nothing but a possible flush draw (he reads like a book)
5) multiple callers take some spades out of the deck

I figured I would be good against anything but the flopped flush. In that spot, on that table, I thought my top pair shove had plus EV.

But you may be right...

Still, do you smooth the made 8high flush in the CU? Is that what the kids are doing nowadays?
6/17/10 12:24 AM
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Mr B Rock
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if i've got this right there was $270 in before you went all-in. when you say a little more than pot do you mean more than 315 or 270 or the original 90?

if it was the original 90 i'm surprised they all didn't call.

270 or 315 I'd still expect 1 guy to call. That seems to be too much gamble because you've got no info from anyone but the small. What you're hoping for is one caller thats on a flush draw lower than a 10.

What we learn from this is a good reason why not to play 10-8.
6/17/10 2:34 PM
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joe canada
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Brock:

Sorry, I'm converting from pesos, so the numbers aren't exact. It was a little more than the existing pot, not the original pot.

I really didn't mind if the flush chasers called, as I was fairly certain a lot of the flush cards were already out (else why all the overcalls?). I figured there was no overpair out there and there was an excellent chance that someone with just a non A overspade would likely fold (which turned out to be the case). Against any chaser, I'm at least a coin flip on what would be a 2:1 pot, so I may as well get it in with some fold equity.

Most of the stacks weren;t big enough to make a set checkraise someone off the hand, as a check-raise would give most of us the odds we need for the all-in call.

Basically, I took a risk with the hand, and would not have been upset with losing, had I not run into the late called 8 high flopped flush.

What pisses in my cornflakes is the flush. I don't see how that is a reasonable line to take. He's one of those horrible players who makes ridiculous plays, hits his magic card, and then gets smug about how well he plays. I've made a lot of money off him, but this particular hand still shits me.
6/17/10 4:32 PM
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andre
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Here is my take:

1) it's not much more than pot sized

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but I wouldnt shove into that many players on a board with that texture because I would assume a call from anyone with a flush (obviously), possibly two overcards that contain at least 1 spade, and possibly anyone who flopped 2 pair or a bigger ten. As you said, you had about a pot sized bet, and for calling that pot sized bet someone gets to see two cards.

2) the preflop raiser would have hammered anything real he hit

With a board like that, I think the preflop raiser is the least of your worries. On a ten high flush board that everyone limped into, the preflop raiser is the one I'd least expect to have the best hand. I'd put him on two overs, depending on how I'd seen him play leading up to the hand.

3) i assumed from past experience that anyone with a real hand at that table would want to defend it, rather than call (overcall) a 1/2 pot bet into a five handed flop.

I dont necessarily agree that he needs to protect anything. With that many players, he has to consider that someone has a higher flush, and he might not be willing to commit the chips to put someone off of a draw to a higher flush. I think your shove told everyone you didnt have a big flush (or at least not the nut flush) or else you might have reraised but there was no reason to shove with a big flush.

4) the preflop raiser obviously had nothing but a possible flush draw (he reads like a book)

If even that. He could have just made a really bad C-bet into a really dangerous board.

5) multiple callers take some spades out of the deck

That may have also been a consideration for the 8 high flush guy. He may feel that he can safely slow play his flush because it's likely that some of the callers are carrying a spade that they're hoping to hit.
6/18/10 9:56 AM
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JHR
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I say...

I regret not having my renovations done in time for you to swim over to my place and play a game...

;)

j/k
6/18/10 2:39 PM
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joe canada
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Note to self: smash JHR

I KNOW that playing 10-8 with a relatively small stack is not optimal, even on the button with 5:1 odds. The blinds didn;t look interested, so calling the BB was no biggie. When the small blind threw in a 3BB micro raise, it was unfoldable for the odds.

YES, dropping 10-8 preflop would have kept me out of trouble.

Shoving the top pair WAS a risk. But I was giving myself 2:1 against anyone who called (or better with multiple callers).

Two overs with a flush card was even money against me.

The over pair and the set screw me, but in the absence of the big overpairs with the spade (which would have raised preflop) what overpair am I afraid of? So take overpairs out of the mix.

Two pair? Must be a pretty raggity two pair, and I have outs anyway. But two pair is a concern.

Set f*cks me in the arse, which is actually the hand I'm most worried about.

Flopped flush? From the SB and BB, ok. Anyone else really needs to raise the SB crappy cont bet, no?

And THAT's where I'm having an issue with this hand. I KNOW 10-8 is not a cat1 hand. I played it b/c I was on the button and took a shot, then had mad odds when it was minraised back to me.

I KNOW that top pair crap kicker is not a hand to go broke with, but the action on the flop led me to believe I only had the SB and maybe the BB to worry about, unless there was a flopped A or K flush out.

I took a chance on the flop that I was best, or at least even money, and gave myself 2:1 on the all in in case I wasn't.

My play? Not optimal, obviously.

What I didn't account for in my calculations is that someone in late position would smooth a crap flopped flush into 5 people.

THAT's my question. Am I completely out of the poker loop in thinking that decent poker players don't deep smooth a flopped 8 high flush with relatively low stacks out?

I KNOW my play wasn't great. My question is: Was his play simply dumb, in which case he got rewarded for horrible play, or do any of you see positive EV in his play? Andre makes a point that he might have thought as I do that most of the spades are out.

There's a case to be made for moving on the turn to take the pot down if the stacks are big enough. Problem with that is that there are enough small stack in play that at least three of us commit if we put more money in, so flop or turn move from the flopped flush is about the same thing.



6/18/10 6:10 PM
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joe canada
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By the way: this is a perfect example of a slow-burn tilt. It's been almost a week and I am still steamy on the hand.

I have lost MUCH bigger pots on MUCH bigger nights and slept like a child. This one I have stuck between my teeth.
6/22/10 10:17 PM
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VectorWega
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 I'd recommend folding 10-8 preflop if there is a chance that you would put it all in 5-handed on a flop of 10XX with three spades. 

That's not a good flop for you at all.  Really, the very best you can hope for is that everyone folds except a player with the (unsuited) Ace of spades and no pair.  Say he had the Ace of Spades and the 6 of Diamonds (someone would have to be REALLY bad to have that hand in this pot) on a flop of 10s-5s-2s, then your 10-8 would still only have a 54% vs 46% chance of winning. 

If he has As5d (spade + pair) you are a slight underdog, as you are if he has AceSpade with an overcard. 

If he has As10d (or Ks10d, Qs10d, Js10d) you only have a 6.67% chance of winning this pot.

If the small blind had an overpair like JJ with a spade you have a 12% chance of winning the pot

If he has a flush, you have less than a 3% chance of winning the pot.

If he has a set, you have less than a 2% chance of winning the pot, unless he has a set of 10s in which case you have 0% chance of winning the pot.

6/22/10 10:21 PM
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VectorWega
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Edited: 06/22/10 10:21 PM
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 BTW, players - both good and bad slowplay flushes all of the time.  A cautious player would likely want to see the turn prior to getting his money in the middle with a small flush.

Also, I hope the SB raised often from early position with nothing because even bad players rarely raise from the small blind into 4 other players without a very good hand. (at least based on the games i've played...i haven't played many live games like this one) 
6/23/10 5:01 AM
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PR
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wtf this hand makes no sense Joe.

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