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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> I believe in LUCK


7/24/10 2:19 AM
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LLORT8RG
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I don't believe in variance. I believe that some people are truly more lucky than others and also that luck comes in spurts. Its a crazy little phenomenon how 1 person can always catch the right cards all of the time. I can only ask to get it in with the best but end up on the other side.
7/24/10 4:52 PM
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PR
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Edited: 07/24/10 4:54 PM
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You need to read "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb and take courses on probabilities ASAP.

You contradict yourself too. Either that or you dont understand what variance is. I know I'm coming off as a jerk, but if you want an explanation for the effect you are seeing I'll write more about it.
7/24/10 7:47 PM
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VectorWega
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 If luck were real over the long term, Jamie Gold would be crushing all of the high stakes cash games.
7/24/10 8:54 PM
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LLORT8RG
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PR,

Probability is a theory but is supposed to be proven by math. How can a theory be proven?

Please write more about it. Im a low stakes player (2/5 cash.) Im at best, a break even player over the last 2 years. I'm not sure how I can alter my game to become a winning player under the circumstances.
7/24/10 8:54 PM
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LLORT8RG
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PR,

Probability is a theory but is supposed to be proven by math. How can a theory be proven?

Please write more about it. Im a low stakes player (2/5 cash.) Im at best, a break even player over the last 2 years. I'm not sure how I can alter my game to become a winning player under the circumstances.
7/24/10 9:51 PM
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andre
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"Probability is a theory but is supposed to be proven by math. How can a theory be proven?"

I hope, for the sake of your bankroll, that you are trolling. :)
7/24/10 10:47 PM
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LLORT8RG
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Look it up
7/24/10 11:20 PM
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andre
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I dont need to. I simply need to know that it is infinitely more provable than your theory of lucky people.
7/24/10 11:28 PM
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PR
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Hmm, I suspect you are more for lamenting your bad luck than having a truly open mind to be able to learn about probability. I dont want to waste my time typing shit out. If you are really looking for reasons to explain the phenomenon you are seeing I suggest reading wikipedia. Search Tversky's famous studies. And Bayes Theorem. Go from there.
7/25/10 4:48 PM
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LLORT8RG
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I'm open minded. I have lamented anything yet. Did I slip a bad beat story in there somewhere?
7/25/10 4:59 PM
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PR
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LLORT8RG - I'm open minded. I have lamented anything yet. Did I slip a bad beat story in there somewhere?


No, but the train is on the same track and I've heard the same story a million times before.
7/25/10 9:45 PM
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LLORT8RG
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I'll just ask on two plus two then since my interest is now sparked. Thanks though.
8/2/10 9:08 AM
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VectorWega
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I know who Moorman1 is.  He's one of the top tournament players in the world.  In online tournaments, quite often you are going to get it in bad.  It's pretty clear that you don't understand his strategy which is why you are not one of the top tournament players and he is.
8/2/10 9:49 PM
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VectorWega
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 So you are equating sponsorships with skill level...wat?
8/3/10 3:08 PM
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wreckker
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 I have played poker as my living full time for 14 years plus now.

I have a losing month on average once every 18 months.. usually due to higher tourney buy ins.

may have a second losing month every 18 months buy my rakeback offests that.

Bottom line is some people will never win over long term because they make way to many bad decions and vice versa if you make a much greater amount of correct decions than your opponets you will win long term.

But fuck did i have BAD luck at the wsop this year!!!







8/6/10 7:07 PM
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VectorWega
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tj615 - VectorWega......I don't expect someone who plays as badly as you to understand how bad Chris Moorman is. Your play at the WSOP is epic comedy. Nice luck though, very nice.

 How was it comedy?  I thought I did quite well.

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