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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> Can you ever fold Kings preflop?


8/5/10 2:55 AM
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GC111
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I had KK in MP at 1/2 8-handed with a ~$350 stack. Bought in $200 and refilled for $100. Raise up to $15 (typical raise in live casinos). Calling station behind me calls. Big stack (the only player at the table who had me covered) reraises. I reraise. Calling station of course folds. Big stack with a half-surprised look goes, "He reraised me? I'm all in." 5-bet shove.

I had a feeling he had Aces. With the loose-passive play and large preflop raises I was being VERY patient throughout the 3 hours I've played at that point. I figured he knew I was playing tight. I would've folded.

But sources say you cannot fold Kings preflop. He could have Queens or AK. So even though my gut instinct was he had two Aces, I called anyway with my remaining deep stack. He turns over the two Aces. I walk away before the flop is even dealt. I feel sick and if I hadn't been a winning player I probably would've cried. What made it even worse was it was my first visit at that casino and it's hard to return there without that memory. I knew what he had.... and yet I called because I was supposed to call.
8/5/10 3:23 AM
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andre
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Phil Gordon's book has a tip: "Fourth raise means Aces."

I have yet to see that not be the case.

In my opinion, reraising him was a mistake. I'd just shove. I dont want to have to guess after Ive already put that much money into the pot. I'll see all 5 cards heads up and hope that if he has aces I'll spike a king.

That's in a cash game. In a tournament I'd proceed with much more caution. I'd probably call his reraise and reevaluate on the flop.
8/5/10 3:45 AM
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GC111
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andre - Phil Gordon's book has a tip: "Fourth raise means Aces."

I have yet to see that not be the case.



Really? Ivey 5-bets with 52 off. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mLdPAfUcmY

On the reraise, I don't think it matters whether it was a reraise or shove beause neither of us was going to fold/flatcall anyway. Plus if an Ace comes on the flop you still have a chance to make a choice to figure out whether he has AK or Queens.
8/5/10 12:01 PM
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andre
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Well, if you think your opponent is capable of making an Ivey-like play, by all means reraise.

"On the reraise, I don't think it matters whether it was a reraise or shove beause neither of us was going to fold/flatcall anyway. "

Exactly my point. If neither of you are going to fold, why give yourself the possibility of making a bad decision? What happens when an Ace hits on the flop and you're out of position? You check and when he senses the ace was a scare card to you and bets, do you fold? What if his reraise was to protect his queens and now he gets you to fold the better hand?
8/5/10 1:29 PM
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wreckker
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 I have folded kings pre in cash games and tournies...

Its harder to do in todays game than before ... but its still possible under the right circumstances and against the right player
8/5/10 4:15 PM
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GC111
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Edited: 08/05/10 4:36 PM
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"Exactly my point. If neither of you are going to fold, why give yourself the possibility of making a bad decision

It did end up being a mistake because he had Aces. When he makes the shove, I still had a chance to make the correct choice and fold.

"What happens when an Ace hits on the flop and you're out of position? You check and when he senses the ace was a scare card to you and bets, do you fold?"

Assuming I get no read on my opponent, I'd probably have to bet the flop and if he calls, he's probably hit the ace. Otherwise, I can possibly outlevel my opponent if I think he's trying to steal with Queens and he puts me on Kings.

"What if his reraise was to protect his queens and now he gets you to fold the better hand?"

That's the reason why I ended up calling. Although I felt he had Aces in that spot.
8/5/10 4:39 PM
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andre
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"It did end up being a mistake because he had Aces. When he makes the shove, I still had a chance to make the correct choice and fold. "

I think you are being results oriented in this case. So far we have a raise (by you) and a reraise (by him). That reraise can represent anything from a medium pocket pair all the way to aces, with AK along the way, and maybe some other hands depending on the villain and how he perceives you. Most of the time, it won't be aces, and if you shove and he calls then he's making a costly mistake no matter how the board runs out. In other words, no matter what happens after he calls with the worst of it, he made a mistake that costs him money, and you made a correct play that made you some (no matter if you lose the hand). Now, in the case of aces, that's just bad luck and there was nothing you could do to avoid it (especially since you already said that neither of you would fold with the hands you have).

But by reraising or calling, you suddenly put the burden of making a mistake square onto your shoulders in all the cases where your opponent doesnt have aces. Suddenly he gets to evaluate his hand from a position where he can choose to make the perfect play, even if that play is a fold.
8/5/10 11:18 PM
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PR
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I have 4 times in my life. Twice online, and both times the guy SHOWED aces, how lucky. The twice live I didnt see what the other player had.

I've played something like 2 million hands of poker. And the fact that I can tell you every time I folded KK preflop tells you how absurd it is to even really consider folding it preflop.

Basically it comes down to math. Never folding KK preflop, and being wrong occasionally is a much smaller $$$$mistake in the long run than folding KK preflop incorrectly is.

So it's way better to just never fold it.
8/5/10 11:26 PM
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PR
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GC111 - I walk away before the flop is even dealt.


You still had 18% chance of winning lol.

Anyway GC, you didnt give bet sizes, but you were getting good pot odds by the time you wanted to fold.

You raise to $15. He reraises to $40. You reraise to $120. He shoves for $350 total (effectively). So its 230 for you to call to win 470.

Pot odds are: 470:230 = over 2 to 1. Meaning you ONLY have to have a winning percentage of 33% to make a call better (ie. more profitable than folding, which costs $0).

You are already at 18% if he has Aces. If he can have either AA or KK, you percentage jumps to 22%.

Let's get into more detail:

if he plays this way - shoving all-in, with:

AA 100% of the time
KK 100% of the time
QQ only 17% of the time he has QQ (ie 1 out of every 6 times he has QQ)
AKo 0% of the time
AKs 50% of the time

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.136% 32.11% 05.02% 5498612 860125.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 62.864% 57.84% 05.02% 9904178 860125.00 { KK+, QcQd, AcKc, AdKd }

Then calling is clearly correct.
8/5/10 11:36 PM
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andre
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PR,

What do you think about the line I'd take of shoving? He didnt give the bet sizes, so shoving could be a massive overbet, but in the live games where I play, I'd definitely get a caller from AK, maybe AQ, definitely QQ, JJ, and possibly TT.

Online I only play tourneys, so I'd expect the opponent to fold anything smaller than AA, QQ, and AK suited if it meant his tournament life.
8/6/10 12:15 AM
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PR
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You have a point for sure Andre.

Here's what I'd be thinking about at that point. I would try and weigh the options of shoving, and how profitable that is - Id ask myself how many hands can he call with?

Is he more of a calling station or an over aggro spew monkey?

The thing about shoving is its lets him off the hook if he has a mediocre hand.

If we just reraise smallish, and give him room to shove... then it lets him shove and think maybe there is a chance we'll fold.

Your right though, IME at low stakes live play I'd likely just shove, and then I'd proceed to fidget in every conceivable way and that way hopefully something he sees me do he can then use to convince himself he has a "tell" on me and call.
8/6/10 6:25 PM
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GC111
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PR,

The bet sizes you mentioned were accurate. I have another problem I'd like to address though.

Before that hand, I used to frequent another casino (Four Winds in MI) where there PokerPro machines. They were mostly old people and most of them adjusted to my tight play so if I raised pre-flop only one or two fish will call, which was what I prefer since I REALLY can't stand family pots.

When I went to other casinos with live dealers and actual chips, the players seemed to be mostly young people, some who won't fold preflop (AQ for them is worthy of allin preflop). Seemed like two big-stacks especially had zero fold equity. Every pot seemed to be a family pot and the tightest player still gets four callers after his raise preflop! As a 23 yo myself, I have MASSIVE trouble adjusting to a table full of young players who limp in every hand. I'd MUCH rather be heads-up post-flop at live 1/2, no matter what cards I have. I couldn't stand the slower pace of live dealers and family pots with ambiguous info on stack and pot sizes. Today at such a table I was trying to wait for a hand and missed nearly every flop. I experienced calling stations floating with 2nd pair and getting trips on the river and making their gutshots and straight draws calling at the wrong prices. I didn't pay them off when they bet their made hands, but I still experienced losses regardless. After 2 hours of not winning a single pot (7 hour session) I got up and left. I'm so tempted to move up so that there is more headsup action but it's not healthy for my bankroll.

When there are regulars that adjust to my TAG play, I am able to win at 20+BB/hr on average. At tables with little fold equity and too many weak players, I become a losing player. Do you really have to wait at weak tables with little fold equity?
8/6/10 7:40 PM
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PR
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Edited: 08/06/10 7:42 PM
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Naw GC, you just arent experienced enough to adjust your play to the table dynamic.

You are too focused on winning pots instead of money. This is a common step in the evolution towards being a good player.

Im pretty sure if I told you, that you'd have to play 100 hours of live poker and you were only going to win 1 single pot during that time - but it would be for a million dollars, you would do it.

Same concept applies at a table with lots of loose players.

At a table with 10 players, you'd expect each player would win about 10% of pots. But when you are at a loose table, as a winning tight player, you aren't going to win that fair share... you might get pushed down to winning only 5% of pots for example.

But that is more than made up for because the pots you do win are much much larger on average.

So patience becomes even more important.

Dont be that guy that says "I'm just happy with the money in the pot already" because thats not the most profitable way to play poker.

So when you are at a table with lots of loose players, try to focus and staying patient, not falli8ng i9nto the trap of playing shitty hands like you see everyone else do at the table - and WATCH CAREFULLY the size of the bets (in relation to the pot size) people are calling with their marginal/crappy hands.

The guy that chased his gut shot? What bet size was he calling? Would he call a pot-sized bet? More?

Also important is to find the maximum amount of a preflop raise that people will call. So when you finally pick up AA/KK/QQ/AK you know how large you can raise preflop and still get callers.

I look for a preflop raise size which fits into the gap where its too much for the good players to call preflop, but not too much to chase out the bad players.

For example, say 1/2 live. If you raise to $5 preflop, you might get 8 callers, and the good players will call too. But if you instead raise to $10, the good players might understand that its not profitable anymore to call with junk hands. But yet the bad players will still call. Then the next time you get a good hand, raise to even more, say $12 or $15 and see if the worst players will still call.

Etc
8/6/10 8:01 PM
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GC111
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Edited: 08/06/10 8:21 PM
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Preflop raise sizes was actually one of the things I've been trying to work on today. I noticed 25 seemed to chase out everyone. However, someone will reraise to 100 with AQ. That actually happened when I 3-bet with JJ to 25. I ended up folding that too.

In one hand in particular, I had QQ. I raise to 20. 2 callers who I had position on. Flop comes Kxx. They check and since I wasn't sure if they hit the king, I bet 25. One caller. On the turn (a 7 I think) he donk bets into me for 50. I fold....

The guy that chased his straight draw (open-ender) called my reraise on the flop with two pair and then a shortstack's reraise allin after I just called it. He hit the turn and I knew it so I didn't pay him off but still lost a lot off of that regardless. I was told to go all-in on the flop but I really have no idea if he wanted to chase that badly. I only had bottom two-pair though (BB special) and wasn't that sure enough that he was on a draw to go all-in.

Honestly, I think it's just bad variance for me with that many calling stations and not so much bad mistakes. Second pair improves about 22%-25% time and if you have someone else chasing a draw in the same hand that's 16%-32% for him. I probably do need to charge more than I usually would against a good player in these situations. But I don't usually bet more than the pot size.
8/6/10 8:47 PM
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PR
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Well you are flushing money down the toilet by folding JJ to dude's AQ, and by folding two pair to the straight draw.
8/6/10 8:51 PM
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PR
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Doing some quick math (with estimates) you lost +$53 in Expected Value by folding the JJ, and probably >$100 by not going all-in with the two pair on the flop.

The way you can make yourself run the worst is by being chickenshit to put the money in when you have a clear edge, fold pots you should have picked up, and then get unlucky when you finally do play a big hand.

Thats a recipe for big losses.
8/6/10 9:02 PM
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GC111
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Edited: 08/06/10 9:53 PM
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Well PR, I didn't know what he had at the moment. The guy with AQ usually limps in 90% of the time. If he suddenly 4-bets for the first time, you'd think your JJ is good? And the straight draw chaser also flatcalls trips and two pair as well. If he calls a reraise on the flop, how the fuck are you going to know he's just on a draw? When he shoves the turn OOP, then you know he has it. Are you making calculations on what he has exactly or his range?

Look man, you are being really abrasive here.
8/6/10 10:07 PM
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PR
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Yeah, sorry I get like that sometimes when I'm trying to help but dont have a lot of time to post. Nothing personal.

My rule at 1/2 is to never fold two pair or better on the flop. And to never fold AK or QQ+ preflop, unless the stacks are stupidly deep, like 300bb+.
8/6/10 11:02 PM
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billid
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PR - Yeah, sorry I get like that sometimes when I'm trying to help but dont have a lot of time to post. Nothing personal.

My rule at 1/2 is to never fold two pair or better on the flop. And to never fold AK or QQ+ preflop, unless the stacks are stupidly deep, like 300bb+.


I didn't read the thread yet. Just wanted to say that if anybody is playing differently than this, you're doing it wrong.
8/7/10 12:18 AM
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GC111
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billid - 
PR - Yeah, sorry I get like that sometimes when I'm trying to help but dont have a lot of time to post. Nothing personal.

My rule at 1/2 is to never fold two pair or better on the flop. And to never fold AK or QQ+ preflop, unless the stacks are stupidly deep, like 300bb+.


I didn't read the thread yet. Just wanted to say that if anybody is playing differently than this, you're doing it wrong.


Looking back at the 2 months I've played poker so far, I stacked most of my opponents when they had two pair on the flop. I don't think I'd be winning at $46/hr over 56 hours with normal variance if I was doing it wrong.
8/7/10 12:55 AM
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Naughty Gorilla
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I don't know if you're being sarcastic but that is a stupidly small sample size

"I don't think I'd be winning at $46/hr over 56 hours with normal variance if I was doing it wrong."
8/7/10 3:02 AM
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andre
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GC111 - 
billid - 
PR - Yeah, sorry I get like that sometimes when I'm trying to help but dont have a lot of time to post. Nothing personal.

My rule at 1/2 is to never fold two pair or better on the flop. And to never fold AK or QQ+ preflop, unless the stacks are stupidly deep, like 300bb+.


I didn't read the thread yet. Just wanted to say that if anybody is playing differently than this, you're doing it wrong.


Looking back at the 2 months I've played poker so far, I stacked most of my opponents when they had two pair on the flop. I don't think I'd be winning at $46/hr over 56 hours with normal variance if I was doing it wrong.


My friend, I have nothing against you, and I mean you no disrespect, but you are DOOMED in poker. Trust me. You will go broke in no time.

You have all the poker lingo down, so I suspect you live on the 2+2 forums, but you have gaping holes in your understanding (we all do, some have bigger ones than others), but the worst part--the part that dooms you--is that you cling to those misconceptions as tightly as if someone was criticizing your family member.

PR is a tremendous source of information and you are lucky he's giving you needed feedback. I was shocked when you said he was being abrasive. Dude...he was being kind.

PR has told me on several times that I played a hand poorly and had a misconception, and each time I discussed it with him with an open mind, learned him and thanked him for taking the time to help.

You, on the other hand, come in with some questions, but whenever someone much, much better than you answers them you say, "Yeah, but..."

Empty your cup, my man.
8/7/10 3:13 AM
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andre
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GC111 - Well PR, I didn't know what he had at the moment. The guy with AQ usually limps in 90% of the time. If he suddenly 4-bets for the first time, you'd think your JJ is good? And the straight draw chaser also flatcalls trips and two pair as well. If he calls a reraise on the flop, how the fuck are you going to know he's just on a draw? When he shoves the turn OOP, then you know he has it. Are you making calculations on what he has exactly or his range?

Look man, you are being really abrasive here.


I have to point out one more thing. You're doing something I was guilty of doing before: "The guy with AQ usually limps in 90% of the time."

How do you know?

How many times has he limped in with AQ, missed the flop, and folded it. How many times has he raised with it and not gotten any callers?

Unless he's showing down every single hand, and youve spent hours and hours watching and keeping tabs on every single one, your calculation isnt anything more than a silly guess. And you are justifying your fold on that silly guess.

My point is that you can categorize the guy as a very tight player and use that to justify your fold, but dont start creating percentages on individual hands. Makes you look silly.

And dont call people fish. It's a stupid thing for anyone to call another player, much less someone who has your limited hours at the table under his belt.

My advice: deposit $50 on Full Tilt or Poker Stars and play at the lowest possible level until you build a bigger bankroll and can move up. You arent ready for $1/$2.

Again, sounds like Im being harsh but Im trying to save you money and heartache.
8/7/10 7:01 AM
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GC111
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andre, you just simply have an ego problem. You feel threatened yourself when I'm debating with another player.

I think you have an inflated ego because you won a tournament recently. Congrats to you, but a tournament involves a lot more luck than cash games, which is why I really do not like tournaments.

I know PR's here all the time. PR was the main reason why I made the thread. I don't come here at all but it doesn't neccessarily mean a he's a superior player than I am. And yes, I do recognize he's been playing poker much longer than I have, therefore he's able to have a bankroll to play higher stakes than I do at the moment. But it doesn't mean he's infallible or he's a high stakes player.

"Unless he's showing down every single hand, and youve spent hours and hours watching and keeping tabs on every single one, your calculation isnt anything more than a silly guess. And you are justifying your fold on that silly guess."

So you'd call/raise someone with JJ, who typically limps in preflop, who 4-bets you? Ok, keep playing that way andre. Shove allin blind with JJ because it's 1/2. And he's not exactly a tight player if he's willing to go allin with AQ.

And you were wrong above shoving the 3-bet. As PR said, it lets him off the hook if he has a mediocre hand. My opponent with the Aces was neither a spewtard or aggromonkey and he was adjusting to my play by folding to most of my preflop raises. Plus he INSTASHOVED, as I described it, when I reraised him. You'd think that maybe with QQ or AK he'd think for half a second or longer before making that last reraise. That's what gave a higher possibility of Aces. But you don't look for that stuff. You just simply play Level 1 poker and do a massive overbet to a 3-bet without even thinking. You're just insecure when someone a mudnamer like myself is disagreeing.

And no, I don't live on the 2+2 forums. I hardly go there since most of the advice is misinformation, like yours. I've just been reading a lot of books and articles for several months before I took a jump to live poker.

"And dont call people fish. It's a stupid thing for anyone to call another player, much less someone who has your limited hours at the table under his belt."

Just because most people I've played against have played way more than I have doesn't mean they're better at all. I see the most experienced players at 1/2 make mistakes all the time. Why do the regulars at the casino I frequent tend to avoid playing with hands with me nowadays? If I was as terrible a player as you describe, they would salivate at the chance to win their money back when I'm in.

I don't have an ego problem like yourself because I don't have a problem with stepping down. Maybe I think shoving with bottom 2 pair in a limped pot is risky. I'm just patiently simply trying to build my bankroll, which I'm doing well in for several months now, which is why I'm starting at 1/2(I'm not able to play online.) At really weak tables, you simply can't do a lot of stuff except to wait. Take a pro to $1/$2 and he'll probably be bored to death.

"My advice: deposit $50 on Full Tilt or Poker Stars and play at the lowest possible level until you build a bigger bankroll and can move up. You arent ready for $1/$2."

Now you are tilting here. For someone who doesn't bother to read his opponents, I guess you must be right. Because live $1/$2 equals .10/.25 online, and despite capitalizing on mistakes at $1/$2 at getting a decent win rate I must not be ready for microstakes. Keep assuming that every new member to the Poker forum is worse than you are.
8/7/10 8:36 AM
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GC111
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"I have to point out one more thing. You're doing something I was guilty of doing before: "The guy with AQ usually limps in 90% of the time.

How do you know?"

Reread the sentence. I said he limps in with 90% of his hands, not limping in with AQ 90% of the time.

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