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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> Value bet a baby flush?


10/5/10 11:53 AM
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andre
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I bought in for $500 and played a $5/$5 game at Hollywood Park yesterday. This is really the best game in town, but you need deep pockets for it because the action is wild. I promised to limit myself to one buy in, and if I lost that I'd drop down to the $3/$5 ($200 buy in table) where things were a bit more manageable.

The action was insane and I managed to nearly double my stack in the first 30 minutes. Then my set of tens on the flop ran into a set of kings and I was back down to my buy in. Every hand involved an early position raise and then a reraise, so it was pretty expensive just to see the flop...when finally I'm on the button with 6s3s and UTG limps in, then someone in middle position limps, so I decide to limp because I know that hitting a hand at this table has huge implied odds, even if there are only a few players in the hand. The blinds limp and we see a flop. The flop is AsQs7d. It checks around to me and I bet $15 into a $20 pot. I did this because I wanted to either take the pot down there (unlikely) or to represent that I had hit it somehow (most likely with the Q since I would have likely raised preflop from the button with an ace). The blinds fold, UTG raises to $35, MP folds, and I call.

I called because I had taken down a pretty big pot against UTG earlier and he was still steaming about hit. He had a huge stack and generally overbet the pot. I felt that if I hit I would be able to double up. The turn was the Js...I made my flush, but it was a just a lil baby.

I didnt think he could put ME on a flush, but I wasnt sure if he was raising me with a flush draw on the flop. It was unlikely, since limping from UTG and his action on the flop implied, at least to me, that he had a big ace and had check raised me with it, expecting me to fold my weak ace or Q. On the turn he bet $100, which was about the size of the pot. I called.

The river was a rag. I put him on a big ace or maybe 2 pair. I had about $400 behind me and there was $300 in the pot. He bets $150 into the $300 pot. Do I just call with my baby flush or do I shove and trust my read?

I'll see what you guys think before I let you know what I did.
10/5/10 3:40 PM
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SiftMyMind
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Edited: 10/05/10 3:44 PM
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10/5/10 3:44 PM
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SiftMyMind
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andre - I'll see what you guys think before I let you know what I did.


Damn! It would be nice to know the outcome BEFORE my having to respond...lol

…..

Based on the texture of the board, the villain may have a pair, two pair, a straight, a flush or the straight-flush.

The only hand that can beat you is the straight flush or a better flush than yours.


Straight-flush
The UTG just raised pre-flop, so it's unlikely he has KTs, because, given that he is a loose player, over bets the pot, and is possibly a little on tilt from the earlier beating you gave him, he would probably bet that hand more aggressively pre-flop, not just limp.
So the straight-flush is unlikely.

Flush (possibly better than yours)
When he re-raised you after the flop, that seems to be indicating that he has some kind of hand RIGHT THEN (i.e. a pair or two pair).
If he was drawing (like you were), I think he would try to see the turn card as cheaply as possible and NOT raise you and NOT give you any more chances to re-raise his re-raise (i.e., a third raise) and thus, he would just call your initial $15 raise.
So the flush is unlikely.

So, based on your reads and my thoughts, you should have the best hand.


What to bet?
Value Bet
The case could be made for trying to value bet and raise his bet by an amount that makes difficult for him not to call, but after you call his $150 and add to that a respectable raise out of your $400, you are basically pot committed and he might see that you are just trying to squeeze the extra out of him and that you have something pretty good and don’t want to scare him off.

Therefore, based on all the above, I would just go all-in.



10/5/10 3:53 PM
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SiftMyMind
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Edited: 10/05/10 3:54 PM
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SiftMyMind - Based on the texture of the board, the villain may have a pair, two pair, a straight, a flush or the straight-flush.


Should have also said villain could have a set.
10/5/10 3:58 PM
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SiftMyMind
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I'm guessing he had A7o or Axo, BTW.
10/5/10 4:54 PM
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andre
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Edited: 10/05/10 4:55 PM
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Ok, here is what I did.

I put my opponent on a big, non-flush hand. The fact that he limped from UTG, check raised me, and has fired on every round, including the turn (when the flush hit), told me that he was either certain I would fold to pressure or that he thought his non-flush hand was good and that he was up against another non-flush hand. Now, had the ace on the board not been the ace of spades, I would have been more cautious because then I could have put him on the ace AND the flush draw. I felt it was one or the other, based on the action.

I was pretty certain that he didnt put me on the flush draw because I bet into 3 people and he might have felt I would have taken the safer route of seeing a free card. This is a BIG factor in why I called his reraise. I figured that in order for my play to be worth it calling his reraise, I needed to try to stack him.

So since he bet on all three streets, I felt he had a non-flush monster and that his bets were in part defensive in case he was wrong. While I had a baby flush, any flush is better than any possible non-flush hand, so my only thoughts were to maximize the value.

I hesitated and asked him if he had been betting his flush draw. Then I asked out loud, "Why would you reraise me with a flush draw? It doesnt make sense." Finally, I said, "There is no way you have a flush. I'm all in."

He called immediately and showed a set of aces. I showed my flush and he about threw up as he watched his chips being pushed my way.

The danger of limping with aces...even on an action table.
10/5/10 4:57 PM
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andre
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I just deleted a line in which I said I had eliminated the possibility of a set. What I mean was that I didnt put him on a set because I thought he would simply smooth call since my flush draw was unlikely and he'd get more value by calling and letting me stab at it again, and the board could always pair.
10/5/10 5:38 PM
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SiftMyMind
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andre - I just deleted a line in which I said I had eliminated the possibility of a set. What I mean was that I didnt put him on a set because I thought he would simply smooth call since my flush draw was unlikely and he'd get more value by calling and letting me stab at it again, and the board could always pair.


Good point.
Also, tough to put him on a set given that he didn't bet it pre-flop.
10/5/10 5:40 PM
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SiftMyMind
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Edited: 10/05/10 5:44 PM
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10/5/10 5:44 PM
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SiftMyMind
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SiftMyMind - 
andre - I just deleted a line in which I said I had eliminated the possibility of a set. What I mean was that I didnt put him on a set because I thought he would simply smooth call since my flush draw was unlikely and he'd get more value by calling and letting me stab at it again, and the board could always pair.


Good point.
Also, tough to put him on a set given that he didn't bet it pre-flop.


I mean, because he didn't bet the pocket pair (which turned into the set).
10/6/10 12:18 AM
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VectorWega
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Why didn't you raise the turn?  That seems like a very bad play IMO, unless you want to get sucked out on or don't want to know where you are at if another spade hits or the board pairs.

10/6/10 12:26 AM
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PR
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1. fold preflop. you ran into one of the big problems with small flush draws. having connectedness in the hand is very valuable, by that I mean 65s over 63s. one gappers are good too, but there's a big difference in value between a one gapper connector like 64s and a two gapper connector like 63. this is because a two gapper can only make one nut straight (542) but a one gapper can make two nut straights (753 and 532). straights are more deceptive and get paid off more because of it.

2. as played your bet is great on the flop as is you call.

3. turn, just put it all-in.
10/6/10 8:10 AM
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andre
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VectorWega - 

Why didn't you raise the turn?  That seems like a very bad play IMO, unless you want to get sucked out on or don't want to know where you are at if another spade hits or the board pairs.



I'm sorry, but I think THIS is the wrong play. I see that PR agrees with you, but here is my thinking:

I don't put him on a flush like mine on the turn. And I dont think he can put me on one. I think that if I shove, he calls. However, if he has a spade in his hand, and a spade comes, I'm already all in and I lose my stack.

By not shoving, and leaving plenty behind, I can still get it all in because he doesnt put me on the flush, but I can also fold to his shove, if needed, if the 4th spade hits.

He had a monster that he wasnt folding, so getting it all in on the turn meant a much higher variance, imo.
10/6/10 8:14 AM
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andre
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Also, raising on the turn gives away my hand completely. I think my flush was pretty well disguised, but if I come out raising him on the very street the flush is made, I give him a good chance to make the right decision and fold. I think that by just calling I leave open the possibility that I'm playing a medium strength hand and hoping to keep the pot small, which encourages him to increase his bet size for value, or to get me to fold if he's unsure of the strength of his hand but feels mine is weak enough that I would fold to pressure.
10/6/10 8:50 AM
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andre
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PR,

Just so I'm clear. Are you shoving for value on the turn or to get him to fold?
10/6/10 9:48 AM
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VectorWega
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andre - 
VectorWega - 

Why didn't you raise the turn?  That seems like a very bad play IMO, unless you want to get sucked out on or don't want to know where you are at if another spade hits or the board pairs.



I'm sorry, but I think THIS is the wrong play. I see that PR agrees with you, but here is my thinking:

I don't put him on a flush like mine on the turn. And I dont think he can put me on one. I think that if I shove, he calls. However, if he has a spade in his hand, and a spade comes, I'm already all in and I lose my stack.

By not shoving, and leaving plenty behind, I can still get it all in because he doesnt put me on the flush, but I can also fold to his shove, if needed, if the 4th spade hits.

He had a monster that he wasnt folding, so getting it all in on the turn meant a much higher variance, imo.
This is horrible logic. You would be getting it all in on the turn with a 77% chance of winning the hand (if he has a set).  If the spade comes that doesn't pair the board, then you are actually a 100% favorite to win the hand but you would have know clue where you were at and would fold to a shove.  If you have a baby flush on the turn/flop and you believe it is the best hand you should always try to get it in before the river, otherwise you will take some brutal beats (in this case if a spade came on river, A7 with the 7 of spades, or what if the player overplayed A8 with the 8 of spades..that would be really brutal).

BTW, if you have a large enough bankroll you should be worrying about value, not variance.  If value is equal then perhaps you try to minimize variance but obviously here there is more value in shoving the turn.
10/6/10 9:50 AM
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VectorWega
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andre - PR,

Just so I'm clear. Are you shoving for value on the turn or to get him to fold?
Not PR but you bet on the turn to protect your hand and for value.  If you aren't going to bet this hand then don't ever complain about a bad beat because you are just asking to get sucked out on.
 
10/6/10 10:16 AM
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JHR
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  "Do I just call with my baby flush or do I shove and trust my read?"

Normally would you not just call, because if you raise you'll generally only get called by somebody with a better hand?


10/6/10 10:25 AM
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andre
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VectorWega - 
andre - 
VectorWega - 

Why didn't you raise the turn?  That seems like a very bad play IMO, unless you want to get sucked out on or don't want to know where you are at if another spade hits or the board pairs.



I'm sorry, but I think THIS is the wrong play. I see that PR agrees with you, but here is my thinking:

I don't put him on a flush like mine on the turn. And I dont think he can put me on one. I think that if I shove, he calls. However, if he has a spade in his hand, and a spade comes, I'm already all in and I lose my stack.

By not shoving, and leaving plenty behind, I can still get it all in because he doesnt put me on the flush, but I can also fold to his shove, if needed, if the 4th spade hits.

He had a monster that he wasnt folding, so getting it all in on the turn meant a much higher variance, imo.
This is horrible logic. You would be getting it all in on the turn with a 77% chance of winning the hand (if he has a set).  If the spade comes that doesn't pair the board, then you are actually a 100% favorite to win the hand but you would have know clue where you were at and would fold to a shove.  If you have a baby flush on the turn/flop and you believe it is the best hand you should always try to get it in before the river, otherwise you will take some brutal beats (in this case if a spade came on river, A7 with the 7 of spades, or what if the player overplayed A8 with the 8 of spades..that would be really brutal).

BTW, if you have a large enough bankroll you should be worrying about value, not variance.  If value is equal then perhaps you try to minimize variance but obviously here there is more value in shoving the turn.


I'm not even sure if you are trolling, if you really do play poker, or if you are just wrong in this case, but you are all over the place.

Consider this, and stop trying to win an arguement.

1) He doesnt put me on a flush, so he thinks whatever non-flush hand he has is best. He is unlikely to fold, and a shove only reinforces the idea that I'm weak because it is such a massive overbet to the flop. In other words, he isn't going anywhere, nor do I want him to at this point.

2) If I shove and he calls, a spade on the river COULD beat me. If the board pairs, I COULD be beaten. All of my chips are in and I stand to lose my stack. If I play it as I did, with him leading into me, I have the option of calling his river bet if a spade hits or the board pairs, without shoving, and thereby protecting some of my stack against variance (of the bad kind). But if neither hit, then I repop him on the river for all in, feeling pretty secure in doing so, and he is pot-committed and ends up putting all the chips in anyway.

Seriously, if you or PR can't see the logic of this, then I will just assume that you both great players (PR, at least, because I know more about his game, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt) and that you are simply wrong on this.
10/6/10 10:29 AM
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andre
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JHR -   "Do I just call with my baby flush or do I shove and trust my read?"

Normally would you not just call, because if you raise you'll generally only get called by somebody with a better hand?




JHR,

Not necessarily. If I am betting on my flush draw when the flop hits, it is hard for the other player to put me on the flush when it comes. He may think I'm overplaying my pair or betting my two pair for value. In this case, the other player has a set of aces, which he has to think is good if he doesnt put me on the flush.

The whole question is whether or not I put him on the flush. If I don't, and I'm right, there isnt a hand that beats me and I lose nothing by shoving over his bet. If I do, and I'm wrong, I think it's still +EV because in the scenario I described above, much more often than not he will have a strong non-flush hand that I beat for added value.
10/6/10 10:30 AM
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andre
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VectorWega - 
andre - PR,

Just so I'm clear. Are you shoving for value on the turn or to get him to fold?
Not PR but you bet on the turn to protect your hand and for value.  If you aren't going to bet this hand then don't ever complain about a bad beat because you are just asking to get sucked out on.
 


Wait...you just said two different things.

Am I betting for VALUE, because I want a call, or am I betting to get him to fold (in which I don't get any added value from the hand, I only avoid a suckout)?
10/6/10 1:21 PM
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VectorWega
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andre - 
VectorWega - 
andre - 
VectorWega - 

Why didn't you raise the turn?  That seems like a very bad play IMO, unless you want to get sucked out on or don't want to know where you are at if another spade hits or the board pairs.



I'm sorry, but I think THIS is the wrong play. I see that PR agrees with you, but here is my thinking:

I don't put him on a flush like mine on the turn. And I dont think he can put me on one. I think that if I shove, he calls. However, if he has a spade in his hand, and a spade comes, I'm already all in and I lose my stack.

By not shoving, and leaving plenty behind, I can still get it all in because he doesnt put me on the flush, but I can also fold to his shove, if needed, if the 4th spade hits.

He had a monster that he wasnt folding, so getting it all in on the turn meant a much higher variance, imo.
This is horrible logic. You would be getting it all in on the turn with a 77% chance of winning the hand (if he has a set).  If the spade comes that doesn't pair the board, then you are actually a 100% favorite to win the hand but you would have know clue where you were at and would fold to a shove.  If you have a baby flush on the turn/flop and you believe it is the best hand you should always try to get it in before the river, otherwise you will take some brutal beats (in this case if a spade came on river, A7 with the 7 of spades, or what if the player overplayed A8 with the 8 of spades..that would be really brutal).

BTW, if you have a large enough bankroll you should be worrying about value, not variance.  If value is equal then perhaps you try to minimize variance but obviously here there is more value in shoving the turn.


I'm not even sure if you are trolling, if you really do play poker, or if you are just wrong in this case, but you are all over the place.

Consider this, and stop trying to win an arguement.

1) He doesnt put me on a flush, so he thinks whatever non-flush hand he has is best. He is unlikely to fold, and a shove only reinforces the idea that I'm weak because it is such a massive overbet to the flop. In other words, he isn't going anywhere, nor do I want him to at this point.

2) If I shove and he calls, a spade on the river COULD beat me. If the board pairs, I COULD be beaten. All of my chips are in and I stand to lose my stack. If I play it as I did, with him leading into me, I have the option of calling his river bet if a spade hits or the board pairs, without shoving, and thereby protecting some of my stack against variance (of the bad kind). But if neither hit, then I repop him on the river for all in, feeling pretty secure in doing so, and he is pot-committed and ends up putting all the chips in anyway.

Seriously, if you or PR can't see the logic of this, then I will just assume that you both great players (PR, at least, because I know more about his game, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt) and that you are simply wrong on this.
You are a 77% favorite to win the hand on the turn.  Any poker player would take that margin all day.  Sure, you will lose the hand 23% of the time, but over a large sample size you will be a huge winner with baby flushes if you play them like this and opponents call you.
 
10/6/10 1:29 PM
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VectorWega
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Edited: 10/06/10 1:31 PM
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andre - 
VectorWega - 
andre - PR,

Just so I'm clear. Are you shoving for value on the turn or to get him to fold?
Not PR but you bet on the turn to protect your hand and for value.  If you aren't going to bet this hand then don't ever complain about a bad beat because you are just asking to get sucked out on.
 


Wait...you just said two different things.

Am I betting for VALUE, because I want a call, or am I betting to get him to fold (in which I don't get any added value from the hand, I only avoid a suckout)?
I understand that in some instances you want to slow play in order to disguise your hand but this is not one of them.  You have a very vurnerable hand, and believe your opponent will call you on the turn despite being a huge dog.  Of course you want to get your money in good and force your opponent to pay for any draw that he may be on.  This is A,B,C poker 1,2,3 - very basic, IMO.

As for Added value, that's assuming you win the pot.  If you don't raise the turn you are likely to lose the pot on the river if the board pairs or if a spade comes off (even though you would have been good in the latter).  I'd rather my opponent folds on the turn and take the pot there than to put myself in such a bad predicament. 

By contrast, if you ever have an ace high flush with similiar circumstances, your hand is less vurnerable on turn.  However, even in that instance if a 4th spade comes off that could serve as a scare card and you end up getting less value.  The point is, if you are a huge favorite and can get all the chips in the middle then get them in the middle!  (at least for cash games...in tournaments your "tournament life" should have value to you and you may want to play a hand like this more cautiously)
10/6/10 3:29 PM
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andre
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Vector,

I appreciate the input, but you cant possibly be right.

On the one hand you are saying that I am a huge favorite, but on the other hand you are saying I have a very vulnerable hand.

What I am saying is that calling on the turn provides me with the best of both options. 1) He's not folding a strong hand if he doesn't put me on the flush. 2) If his strong hand includes a big spade, he isnt folding even if he puts me on the flush. 3) I want to disguise my hand no matter what size flush it is because he simply doesnt have a flush (according to my read) and I dont want him to know I do so that he continues to bet into me and allow me to repop him on the river when he does again and is totally pot committed.

I will be surprised if PR, after some consideration, agrees with you. It simply doesnt make sense to shove there and lose the huge advantage while taking a risk that just doesnt seem to have any upside.

Actually, the only upside to shoving on the turn is if he DOESNT have a spade and a spade comes on the river. That might kill any of my action, but even then I could see him firing and me just calling.
10/6/10 3:35 PM
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PR
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andre - PR,

Just so I'm clear. Are you shoving for value on the turn or to get him to fold?


For value.

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