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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> Value bet a baby flush?


10/6/10 3:50 PM
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andre
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PR, do you think I'm wrong in the line I took? I know you advise shoving, but isnt it more likely for him to fold to a shove on the very street the flush hit than it is if I do it on the river after he's made another bet? Granted, a spade on the river is the worst case scenario because he either has me beat, or he shuts down, but 3 out of 4 times there won't be a spade on the river and I'll get to take his whole stack, like I did.
10/6/10 4:14 PM
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PR
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Andre, you are missing out on a very important piece of info - the fact that on the turn the opponent still has one card to improve his hand, on the river, he either improved or he didnt.

There is value on the turn because of this, that you can not access on the river.

I started a new thread on this.

Quick example. Imagine you are playing against a terrible calling station fish, who can not fold ANY draw.

You have top pair, and he has nothing but a gut shot. Only 4 outs to beat you. It's the turn. He has a $1000 in his stack you have $1000. The pot is $10. He WILL 100% call if you bet $1000 on the turn. However, if he sees the river, he will check-fold if he missed, and only put money in if he hit his gut shot and sucked out on you.

So what do you do?

The answer is obvious I hope... you bet $1000 on the turn. It is more profitable to bet a massive amount when he can still suck out on you, than to play safe, check the turn, and then put money in when you know 100% that you won the pot.
10/6/10 6:02 PM
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andre
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PR,

I'm sorry, I'm really not following you.

He has a made hand, at least as far as he is concerned. In this scenario, he is leading into me because he feels he has the monster and needs no improvement. If you follow the action, my bet on the flop disguised, at least to most people, my flush draw. He hit the board hard, and his limp, check-raise, and subsequent bets into a guy who keeps calling him, tells me he hit the board hard and is oblivious to his flush possibilities. In your example, you have set it up as A-T, but I dont see a guy limping from AT and then playing it as strongly as this guy did. His play was more in line with a set of aces (which is what it was), or a set of 7's, because he limped (possibly hoping for a raise, which was actually the norm at that table so he could reraise with his aces), or hoping to see a flop cheap with a pocket pair like 7's. Either way, I dont see AT in his range, based on position and the line he took.

So my read is that he has a strong non-flush hand and that he puts me on a weaker non-flush hand. Given that criteria (which turned out to be correct, though I didnt realize he was sitting on a set of aces), do you see why I let the guy raising into me continue to raise into me so that I could ultimately commit him to the pot if the spade doesnt hit (most likely scenario) or reduce my losses if the spade does hit by simply calling his value bet.

"Imagine you are playing against a terrible calling station fish, who can not fold ANY draw."

Man, this goes without saying! :) Of course, I know that (dont take this the wrong way...I appreciate the advice/mentoring)...

But he ISN'T on a draw. He isn't playing like he's on a draw. He's playing like we both have non-flush hands and the spades are irrelevant because my action convinced him that I wasn't on a flush draw. Believe me, when I turned over the flush, it was the last thing on earth he expected to see.
10/6/10 10:39 PM
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wreckker
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 Andre you are overthinking the hand...


Bottom line is you shove the turbn because he will most likely call given your read he has a good hand.

YOour shove with 1 card to come.. to him could mean alot of hands he can BEAT, so he is gonna call you.

YYou lose value  if four flush hits river,  how much can he call now ? not much

can you even bet?

you may get bluffed off winning hand

board may pair and you cant bet much or you may get bluffed off pot again if he has a weak hand and makes a move.


See the big can of worms you open by not shoving turn?






10/7/10 12:22 AM
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PR
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I agree 100% with wreckker.
10/7/10 12:33 AM
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andre
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If I was guaranteed a call, I think a shove would make sense. My concern is that I shove when the flush card hits is a clear sign that I have the flush, while a call implies that I'm trying to keep the pot small until I can either make a better hand or get him to stop firing and see if my medium strength hand is good. It begs a bet on the river, at which point he's committed.

I agree that a spade is the worst possible river, whether or not he has one, but I still think that if I'm seated at an action table with guys throwing their money around my best bet is to make the play that allows me to take his stack.
10/7/10 12:38 AM
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andre
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I guess what I'm trying to say is that I played the hand in a manner that I am certain convinced him he was good on the river, when I knew he wasnt, and I am not so sure he makes the same call if I shove when the flush card hits.

Ok, knowing he had a set of aces (in hindsight), yeah, he's calling anything on the turn, but although I put him on a strong hand, I can see him folding a big ace, middle two pair, KK, etc.
10/7/10 10:24 AM
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JHR
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JHR,

Not necessarily. If I am betting on my flush draw when the flop hits, it is hard for the other player to put me on the flush when it comes. He may think I'm overplaying my pair or betting my two pair for value. In this case, the other player has a set of aces, which he has to think is good if he doesnt put me on the flush.

The whole question is whether or not I put him on the flush. If I don't, and I'm right, there isnt a hand that beats me and I lose nothing by shoving over his bet. If I do, and I'm wrong, I think it's still +EV because in the scenario I described above, much more often than not he will have a strong non-flush hand that I beat for added value.
I'm curious though,

When he bets on the river you have two options

1, call $150 leaving you $250 left in chips

2, raise all in

Wouldn't a call be a safer play in that you are investing $150 to win $435 and still leaving you $250 in case your read is wrong. (especially with such a low flush)

Where as a raise wins you an extra $250 if you are correct or leaves you bust if you are wrong?

If the all in commit wasn't made on the turn, why risk the rest of your chips on the river just in case your read is wrong?


 
10/7/10 11:05 AM
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SiftMyMind
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JHR - 


JHR,

Not necessarily. If I am betting on my flush draw when the flop hits, it is hard for the other player to put me on the flush when it comes. He may think I'm overplaying my pair or betting my two pair for value. In this case, the other player has a set of aces, which he has to think is good if he doesnt put me on the flush.

The whole question is whether or not I put him on the flush. If I don't, and I'm right, there isnt a hand that beats me and I lose nothing by shoving over his bet. If I do, and I'm wrong, I think it's still +EV because in the scenario I described above, much more often than not he will have a strong non-flush hand that I beat for added value.
I'm curious though,

When he bets on the river you have two options

1, call $150 leaving you $250 left in chips

2, raise all in

Wouldn't a call be a safer play in that you are investing $150 to win $435 and still leaving you $250 in case your read is wrong. (especially with such a low flush)

Where as a raise wins you an extra $250 if you are correct or leaves you bust if you are wrong?

If the all in commit wasn't made on the turn, why risk the rest of your chips on the river just in case your read is wrong?


 


Why leave him with an extra $250?
10/7/10 11:27 AM
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andre
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JHR - 


JHR,

Not necessarily. If I am betting on my flush draw when the flop hits, it is hard for the other player to put me on the flush when it comes. He may think I'm overplaying my pair or betting my two pair for value. In this case, the other player has a set of aces, which he has to think is good if he doesnt put me on the flush.

The whole question is whether or not I put him on the flush. If I don't, and I'm right, there isnt a hand that beats me and I lose nothing by shoving over his bet. If I do, and I'm wrong, I think it's still +EV because in the scenario I described above, much more often than not he will have a strong non-flush hand that I beat for added value.
I'm curious though,

When he bets on the river you have two options

1, call $150 leaving you $250 left in chips

2, raise all in

Wouldn't a call be a safer play in that you are investing $150 to win $435 and still leaving you $250 in case your read is wrong. (especially with such a low flush)

Where as a raise wins you an extra $250 if you are correct or leaves you bust if you are wrong?

If the all in commit wasn't made on the turn, why risk the rest of your chips on the river just in case your read is wrong?


 



Unless I have the absolute nuts, there's always a chance I'm putting my money in without having the best possible hand. The fact that I only have $250 left isnt relevant because its a cash game and I can reload, so if I am confident in my read and I think he'll call, it's better to put the money in for the extra value. If it was a tournament, I'd probably do the same thing, though I might be a bit more inclined to just call if I was on the bubble of a big tournament...probably not, though. I was pretty confident in my read.
10/7/10 11:29 AM
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andre
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JHR,

The thing is, it's not similar to a hand where I have top pair/top kicker and I'm calling a guy all the way down and then shoving because I think my pair+kicker is better than his. In this case, we have two different types of hands and as long as I'm convinced he has played one type (a non-flush hand) versus the other, the size of my flush doesnt matter.
10/7/10 11:39 AM
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JHR
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 Cool, I understand. Might be too passive thinking on my part. I just like to leave myself some outs when I'm possibly holding a vunerable hand.

Good discussion!



10/7/10 12:28 PM
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andre
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"I feel hesitant and uncomfortable giving poker advice to someone playing at a higher blinds level than I normally play at, so perhaps I'm wrong."

Please don't feel uncomfortable. I am playing at blinds that are too high for my experience level. Seriously.

Thanks for the feedback. I agree with you.
10/7/10 4:15 PM
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wreckker
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 you put in the extra 250$ because  your opponet ios getting to big a price himself to throw away alot of hands you beat.

He has to call 250 to win 685

He may think he is beat but still find it to hard to myuck his hand for that price


10/7/10 4:39 PM
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andre
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Wrekker,

On the turn I have I had about $400 behind me and there was $300 in the pot. He bets $100 into that, so there is $400 in the pot. If I shove $400 into a $400 pot, he isnt priced in if he thinks Ive hit my flush. When I call, on the river there is $500 in the pot and I've got $300 behind. Once he bets $150, he isnt going anywhere for my remaining $150, which gives me the result Im looking for.

Of course, if another spade hits then I have to be satisfied just calling his bet and hoping he isnt holding a spade.
10/7/10 10:00 PM
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VectorWega
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andre - Wrekker,

On the turn I have I had about $400 behind me and there was $300 in the pot. He bets $100 into that, so there is $400 in the pot. If I shove $400 into a $400 pot, he isnt priced in if he thinks Ive hit my flush. When I call, on the river there is $500 in the pot and I've got $300 behind. Once he bets $150, he isnt going anywhere for my remaining $150, which gives me the result Im looking for.

Of course, if another spade hits then I have to be satisfied just calling his bet and hoping he isnt holding a spade.
LoL.  Talk about revisionist history!  Andre has to be the biggest troll in pokerground history.  Previously:
 
andre - 
but I can also fold to his shove, if needed, if the 4th spade hits.

He had a monster that he wasnt folding, so getting it all in on the turn meant a much higher variance, imo.

 
10/7/10 10:23 PM
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andre
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You know the difference between calling his bet and calling his shove, right?
10/7/10 11:34 PM
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VectorWega
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 Yeah, I'm sure he's gonna value bet his set of aces with 4 spades on board.
10/8/10 12:45 AM
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andre
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Vector, be honest. Do you really play poker? Im not sure anymore.

I dont think you're following the action.
10/8/10 3:50 AM
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PR
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Whatever wreckker says I agree with. Just for the record, in case I dont have time to respond.
12/28/10 11:51 PM
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joe canada
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Andre:

I've been away from the poker ground for a while, but your OG thread got me back here and I just read through this thread.

Sorry to say, had you paid more attention to the advice given on this thread, instead of, in your own words "trying to win an argument", your OG thread would never have happened.

You shove the turn into a big hand for a lot of reasons, not least of which because he might think you are on a big SEMIDRAW.

Seriously, and with all respect because I like your posts: you are reminding me of a poker friend of mine with whom I never discuss hands anymore. Why? Because he's never wrong. Getting him to admit there MIGHT have been a higher EV line is like pulling teeth.

Nothing wrong with playing as you please, but when you post for advice, and people take the time to analyze the hand and give their sincere input (not jackass trollers, mind you), do them the courtesy of considering they might be right and that you might be wrong. Once in a while, but not always, that will be the case.

In the interim, good luck at the tables, and keep posting hands!
12/29/10 12:31 AM
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andre
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That is great advice, Joe...thanks, man. I really appreciate it!

Seriously. You make a great point...and very politely, which I appreciate it.
12/29/10 12:37 AM
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andre
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In reading this thread again, I can see what an bullheaded idiot I was.

This was a big lesson for me. Thanks, guys.
12/29/10 11:16 AM
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JHR
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 Good job you bullheaded idiot...

;)



12/29/10 12:02 PM
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andre
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JHR,

The BIG lesson I learned was that my play is always correct and that I need to stop listening to you guys.








******spoiler alert********





Im kidding. :)

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