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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> I think variance is a lot more subtle than it seem


1/17/11 9:35 PM
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andre
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I really think that if you look really carefully at your "running bad" periods and your "running good" periods you will see that a lot of it has to do with your play and not necessarily "bad" variance or some long heater. I think that more often, in the case of bad variance, you are on some form of tilt and playing in a way that seems right but is off just enough that it's causing you to end up in too many marginal situations where your weak hand is actually strongest but doesn't hold up...if that makes any sense.

Likewise, when you are "running good", I think you are often playing confidently and with a clear mind, and totally focused. I think that people attribute too much to variance, in other words.

Thoughts?
1/17/11 11:32 PM
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andre
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I need to read that book. Im not saying that variance doesnt exist, just that I think people might attribute too much to it.
1/18/11 2:11 AM
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PR
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In every bad run, there's bad play too. The problem is it's really hard, maybe even impossible to play well when running bad, simply because the feedback you get is murky.
1/18/11 1:10 PM
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PoWdA101
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andre - 
Likewise, when you are "running good"...

Thoughts?


I would like to know what this "running good' stuff is that you speak of???
1/18/11 1:16 PM
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andre
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PoWdA101 - 
andre - 
Likewise, when you are "running good"...

Thoughts?


I would like to know what this "running good' stuff is that you speak of???


Running good is...

wait.

hmmm...perhaps it IS a myth!
1/18/11 4:46 PM
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PR
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Rookies!

Running good = 100% because I'm playing so awesome
Running bad = It's 100% not my fault, it's all bad luck.
1/18/11 5:03 PM
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andre
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No wonder I never recognized good variance!!!!
1/18/11 5:45 PM
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stillmatic
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PR - Rookies!

Running good = 100% because I'm playing so awesome
Running bad = It's 100% not my fault, it's all bad luck.


LOL, stupid as it seems lots of excellent players think this way. Some of the best players are also the biggest whiners. When they bum hunt, they bitch and moan if the fish gets lucky and manages to win. They feel as though they're entitled to that money just for sitting down at the table.
1/18/11 6:20 PM
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andre
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stillmatic - 
PR - Rookies!

Running good = 100% because I'm playing so awesome
Running bad = It's 100% not my fault, it's all bad luck.


LOL, stupid as it seems lots of excellent players think this way. Some of the best players are also the biggest whiners. When they bum hunt, they bitch and moan if the fish gets lucky and manages to win. They feel as though they're entitled to that money just for sitting down at the table.


I noticed that when I play against "fish" (people more fishy than me), I fall into the trap of chasing too much and playing too many hands, in the hopes of cashing in on the implied odds when I actually hit a hand. But in the meantime, I am PLAYING JUST LIKE THEM, and not how I normally play. I think that when you are playing "fish" you have to use every skill that comes with being a better player and not simply rely on the fact that you "should" beat them.

I hope that makes sense. lol
1/18/11 10:45 PM
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wreckker
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 My strength as aplayer has been to play pretty good even when running well below EV

It is not as good as it was at one point though, I get bored, I dont use all my skills and experience and go on auto pilot to often while multitabling 1-2$ and some 2-4$.


I have to grind at these limits and stick to PLO 8 for next few months to avoid big swings of playing alot of mtt's or NL higher cvash games.

PLO8 has lowest varaiance of any PL game plus maximum rakeback im forced to play a boring game against same mofos for 90% of my hands.

Hope to score at wsop or online because its a grind and liek i said BORING!

Come june i will have alot more opportunities to play other games on my own or backed  so looking forwrad till that..


Until then grindsville USA









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