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2/16/11 3:11 AM
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andre
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tworags.com/blog/bond18/post/1150/things_it_took_me_a_while_to_learn_part_5_3_betting4_betting 

I call bullshit.

I think this is a poor way to play. I get it, but I think it's bad. In fact, I think a lot of Bond18's advice is bad. I think he's a clumsy player.
2/17/11 2:29 AM
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andre
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Any of the pros have any thoughts on this play, or Tony's advice in general? Some of it is good, but some of it is everything that is wrong with online multitabling tournaments.
2/17/11 2:31 AM
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andre
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Question: It's a tournament and you know for a fact that you have a 3% edge over the villain. Let's say it's QQ vs AKs for sure. Get it all in at 100BBs?
2/17/11 2:32 AM
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andre
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3.8% in the scenario, actually.
2/17/11 3:33 AM
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PR
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It's been a while since I read the whole 18 parts or whatever, but most of Bond's advice is very solid.
2/17/11 4:03 AM
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andre
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I think his advice is solid if you have 8 tournaments open and need to only make the final table of one in order to pay for the rest, plus a tidy profit. But I think that much of it is "dangerous" to someone who is trying to win a single tournament, particularly a live one.

Here:

"1. "You can find a better spot": What? What the fuck? Listen, any spot that's good, by which I mean ANY SPOT THAT IS +EV/+cEV is a spot you should take. Now, are there occasionally spots that are +cEV but you should fold because they're –EV? Yes. An obvious example is folding AA in a satellite where you have a seat guaranteed. Want a better example than something this simple? Okay here's one:

I recently played a live 3k event in Melbourne with ~440 entrants. The structure was very deep, very slow and had high antes. 40% of the field was freeroll qualifiers and probably less than dozen players in the whole field were actually good tournament players. If I was BB the very first hand with a 20k bank at 50/100 with 22, and it folds to the SB who shoves his whole 20k then flips up AKs, I would fold. However, it really does take an example that extreme to make me consider passing up a +cEV spot. SO STOP DOING IT!

2. "You risked your tournament life with that?" I hear this all the time around live tournaments. I guess that's because with live you normally only get to play one tournament a day, and in the case of a major main event, people may have waited months or a whole year for it. Still, that's absolutely no excuse. Your tournament life has no value outside a sentimental one, so unless you intend to bottle that magic tournament life feeling and selling to Hallmark for a fucking Christmas card, stop wasting your time with this mentality.

What really has value in tournaments? Chips. If your opponents in a live tournament don't occasionally tell you something like "dude, you're insane!", you probably aren't playing right. A good example of how people get nitty with their tournament lives is shoving ranges and re-stealing all in. An example:

About 15-20 players from the money, in a WSOP $1500 event, it was folded to me with J5o on the button with 11 BB's with antes in play. Both blinds were standard weak tight live players. I jammed because I know how insane tight their calling ranges are, especially moderately close to the bubble. The SB thought for about 8 years before calling with AQo, then the BB folded AQs face up. When I turned my hand over the table let out various insults for putting my stack in with J5o. The real mentality you need to have is a willingness to bust if it means creating +EV spots. Just because you waited a long time to play this tournament doesn't mean you have an excuse to play bad."

Yeah, I get it. Steal the blinds against the super tight. Big surprise, there. Still dont think you should do it with J5. Suited connectors? fine. Suited 1-gap connectors? Fine. JT off? fine.

J5? where being called means your out of the tournament and not being called means you added two BBs to your already tiny stack? Hell no. You have 5 or 6 more hands before you HAVE to put any more money in and I'll wait for a better spot to shove and possibly take down the blinds anyway (because my position may represent strength) and if I'm in a race I'd rather do it with something stronger than J5, even if it means Ill be against something stronger than what the SB or BB is willing to call me with.

Just my opinion.
2/17/11 4:14 AM
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andre
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And also for the record, I'll take a 3% advantage (a coin flip, basically) if anywhere south of 25BBs, but I think it's ridiculous for him to use the 22 vs AKs example as one of only a very few instances in which he'd fold rather than face a coin flip.

I guarantee that for as long as he holds that misconception he will never win a decent sized live tournament.
2/17/11 9:31 AM
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VectorWega
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 I haven't had a chance to watch the video, but bond18 has some decent cashes (full tilt):

Ended Tournament Buy-In+Fee Rank Prize
12/13/2010 $125,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) $100.00+$9.00 1/586 $50,500.00
02/28/2008 $65,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (Rebuys) $100.00+$9.00 1/387 $35,890.40
05/17/2010 $750,000 Guarantee $200.00+$16.00 6/3497 $23,025.00
09/06/2010 $125,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) $100.00+$9.00 3/587 $22,893.75
09/30/2008 $65,000 Guarantee $150.00+$13.00 1/547 $20,512.50
2/17/11 9:32 AM
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VectorWega
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hasn't had much on poker stars in a while:

Ended Tournament Buy-In+Fee Rank Prize
11/05/2008 The Nightly Hundred Grand $150.00+$12.00 2/914 $18,508.50
09/22/2008 $109 NL Hold'em [$100,000 guaranteed] $100.00+$9.00 2/1206 $16,039.80
04/02/2009 Apr 1 14:00 $109+R NL Hold'em [$70,000 guaranteed] (Rebuys) $100.00+$9.00 1/211 $15,050.00
09/18/2008 $109+R NL Hold'em (Rebuys) $100.00+$9.00 3/279 $13,769.20
02/16/2008 The Nightly Hundred Grand [$16
2 NLHE]
$150.00+$12.00 3/813 $10,707.22


BTW, this is Tony Dunst who was featured heavily in this year's WSOp and has some big cashes in live tournaments:

Nov 06, '10 2010 41st Annual World Series of Poker $10,000 World Series of Poker Main Event $10,000 50 $168,556 0

Feb 07, '09 2009 PokerStars.com ANZPT Adelaide ANZPT Main Event - Event 4 $1,960 2 $71,680 0

Jul 03, '08 2008 Bellagio Cup IV (WPT) No-Limit Hold'em Event 2 $3,000 1 $193,720 612

Jun 17, '08 2008 39th Annual World Series of Poker Event 29 - No-Limit Hold'em $2,760 8 $54,344 240

Aug 10, '06 2006 37th Annual World Series of Poker Event 41 - No-Limit Hold'em Championship $10,000 198 $42,882 0

 
2/17/11 9:32 AM
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VectorWega
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Oct 07, '09 Absolute Poker $100K Guarantee $1,000 1 $35,775
2/17/11 10:26 AM
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andre
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Vector, he's playing dozens of tournaments a night so I fully expect him to cash in several. I'm not saying he's not a knowledgeable player, or that I know something he doesn't, but I think he has am arrogance and misconception that leads to bad "shove em and pray" poker that will occassionally pay off but not lead to any serious live wins. IMO.
2/17/11 10:27 AM
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andre
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What do you think of the sections I've posted from his articles?
2/17/11 11:57 AM
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JCT
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andre - I think his advice is solid if you have 8 tournaments open and need to only make the final table of one in order to pay for the rest, plus a tidy profit. But I think that much of it is "dangerous" to someone who is trying to win a single tournament, particularly a live one.


It shouldn't matter how many tournaments you are playing at once. All that really matters is your bank roll.
2/17/11 12:50 PM
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andre
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Well, they go hand in hand. Volume matters. If I take coin flips every time I think I have a slight advantage, Im going to build a huge chip stack in some tournaments and bust out of many, many others. Remember, you have to win the coin flip more than once in a tournament, but you can only lose it once if stack sizes are similar.
2/17/11 8:08 PM
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VectorWega
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If volume matters, then you probably aren't putting in enough volume.  If you put in a large enough volume, then all that matters is how much money you make over the longer haul.  I think it's pretty much been proven that this donkish online style is the most profitable way to win tournaments (not that I've watched the video that no longer exists at the link above, but based on the conversation).
2/17/11 8:32 PM
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andre
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Vector,

So you agree with me? (what video are you referring to? Its an article).
2/17/11 8:40 PM
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VectorWega
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andre - Vector,

So you agree with me? (what video are you referring to? Its an article).

 No I don't agree with you and sorry, but that was a great article you posted.


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2/17/11 9:18 PM
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wreckker
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 Ill be back to this thread ...with more input.

But here is situation about shoving with crap that is right play


2500 entrants in 1500 wsop event i played this year

I came to day two after a long day one.

I was in small blind with 9BB's

I shoved into a stack that had about 21 BB,s

What did I have?

95 off!

Why did I do it?

I mess up that guys stack if he calls and loses...

I take away his 20 BB three bet stack

We are close to the money

If I win I now have a 3 bet stack and have button next hand with a good chance to 3 bet steal and get back in tourney

I think his calling range is going to be pretty tight.

He thought for a couple minutes and called with QJs

I stand by y play because that was towards the bottom of his range

I figures at least 80% of the time I get a fold and if he does call I still have on average 30% equity.

So that shove had about 86-87% chance to win.

Do I like going out on 95 offf?  of course not BUT the chance of success of shoving there was way too good to pass up.

The reward too of having a 3 bet stack is huge reason to shove

Also other stacks were bigger and my 9 BB gets called by much wider range than 21BB stack I shoved into.

flop came 367 BTW and i bricked:{

Out 10 away after a 14 hour day one:{







2/17/11 10:24 PM
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andre
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mnbvcxzchewy - how do you know for a fact what someone has?


Because you hold it in your vagina for everyone to see, Nancy.
2/17/11 10:39 PM
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wreckker
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 My hand that I posted is similar to his 2. example.

You play situations with highest chance of success..
To calculate true EV especially in tournaments card value can go way down and the value of a shove even with crap goes way up.

I dont agree at all with shoving every +ev spot in tourneys at all.

Especially when you have a skill edge over your opponets.
2/17/11 11:24 PM
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andre
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Wrecker, I would shove 95 over j5 any day. 9-5 is loosely connected and both cards are probably live against a tight player calling from the blinds.
2/18/11 12:00 AM
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wreckker
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 J-5 is really the same thing in spot I shoved..but i understand your point and in other spots 9-5 has more chance to have two live cards.

Essentially I was shoving into a tight player because of his stack size and the money bubble approaching..

I would of done same thing he did with the j-5 most likely because the fold equity is so high against nits late in tourneys.

Fold equity can be more valuable than quality of  your cards in figuring out the EV in a tourney situation.






2/18/11 1:26 AM
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andre
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Wrekker,

If I know the guy is a rock, Ill steal the blinds, too. I think people are much more apt to defend their blinds these days because they know how thinly people are shoving from the button, c/o, and even the hijack.

My perspective is that 3 BBs wont change my situation. I need to shove and feel like I'm giving myself the best chance to double up. I don't want the blinds, necessarily, so I dont mind if a deepstack calls me light because he thinks Im shoving with any two cards from the c/o or hijack, or in even earlier position.
2/18/11 2:52 AM
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PR
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andre - Wrecker, I would shove 95 over j5 any day. 9-5 is loosely connected and both cards are probably live against a tight player calling from the blinds.



woah woah woah. If you are going to continue to play tournies you gotta know this math

1) Go download any equity calculator... the go to one is pokerstove.com.

2) Now plug in 95 and see how it does against the top 10%, top 20% top 50%, top 100%

3) do the same for J5.

4) Compare the numbers. Which does better against the top 10% of hands? Which does better against the top 20%? Which does better if the opponent is calling with 100% of his hands?

When you are playing shove or fold preflop tourney poker you gotta know this math. Some hands do better than other against tight opponents. The opposite is true against loose opponents for other hands.

This is ALL math, and there's simply no excuse for not knowing this shit.
2/18/11 2:28 PM
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andre
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1) Im having a hard time doing so on my Mac. Do you know of a way?

2) I've plugged them in against hands that a tight player is likely to call with and in most cases 9-5 is slightly ahead.

(J5, 95)
AK: 32.47%, 33.75%
AQ: 32.14%, 33.78%
AJ: 23.02%, 33.52%
AT: 34.79%, 33.18%
A9: 36.40%, 24.14%
A8: 36.17%, 36.61%

AA: 12.71%, 13.81%
KK: 12.70%, 14.23%

Im sure there are hands, like TT and 99, where it would obviously be MUCH better to have J5, but at the same time you'd rather have 9-5 against JJ, obviously.

My point, though, is that I am more likely to have two live cards against a tight player's range with 9-5 than with J5, AND 9-5 plays slightly better against most premium hands anyway.

Have you run the numbers? If so, can you copy and paste them? I must be doing it wrong.

"Which does better if the opponent is calling with 100% of his hands?"

I'm not shoving either into a player who calls everything. It cant be +EV to shove into a player like that without a decent hand.

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