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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Who can teach me?


5/27/11 8:13 PM
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Markos
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Who can teach me how to bet...

I read the betting lines and sort of get them, but not sure how it all works and what sites i can go to...

I checked out this site: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ratings+on+over+400+sportsbooks+/

referred by Tenor still 10ing

but i just need some help on understanding the betting...

If its -145, does that mean you need to bet $145 to make $100...
If its +130, does that mean you need to bet $100 to make $130...

also when do you know if its a good bet or not and how do people get those number and they are able to say he is a 2 to 1 underdog....

sorry if these are really dumb questions i've just been wondering for a while and figured it would be better to ask and be ridiculed then to never ask at all
6/2/11 6:30 PM
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Tenor still 10ing
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Markos - Who can teach me how to bet...

I read the betting lines and sort of get them, but not sure how it all works and what sites i can go to...

I checked out this site: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ratings+on+over+400+sportsbooks+/

referred by Tenor still 10ing


Are you a U.S. bettor? If so, be careful where you deposit as some offshore books have been targeted by U.S. Customs recently.

Read these for more info:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/black-friday-continues-true-poker-bookmaker-indictments-5-23-11-a-1041887/

http://www.casinoaffiliateprograms.com/blog/breaking-news-u-s-seizes-doylesroom-beted-truepoker-bookmaker/

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/


Markos -but i just need some help on understanding the betting...

If its -145, does that mean you need to bet $145 to make $100...
If its +130, does that mean you need to bet $100 to make $130...


You have it exactly correct.

Markos -also when do you know if its a good bet or not


Easy. When the odds deviate strongly from where you think they should be, then it's a good bet for you.

This is what I mean: I bet on Cain Valesquez and Big Nog when they fought. I was sure Cain would KO him. However, the odds were Cain at +110, making him an underdog.

Now, to me, that was a steal because the guy I thought would win was incorrectly the underdog. Most bettors thought Cain was going to lose. So, I bet Cain big.

When a fighter's odds are very good compared to where you think they should be, bet it. A future example: I like Sam Stout vs. Yves Edwards. I think Stout should be -250 or thereabouts, I am very sure he will win. However, he is only -135. So, I placed a bet on Stout today.

Markos - and how do people get those number and they are able to say he is a 2 to 1 underdog....


A book will try to figure out what the public's opinion is on the fight. They do research and analysis. They want half the money to be bet on each fighter. This way they are guaranteed a profit on each fight.

Markos - sorry if these are really dumb questions i've just been wondering for a while and figured it would be better to ask and be ridiculed then to never ask at all


There are no dumb questions. I know some subjects with a professional knowledge level. My knowledge concerning other subjects is close to zero.

No one can know everything, and only the arrogant and delusional idiot thinks and acts otherwise. Asking questions is the best way to learn that I am aware of.

Good luck in the future.
6/2/11 10:06 PM
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Markos
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ur the man thanks
6/2/11 10:55 PM
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Markos
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Markos -but i just need some help on understanding the betting...

If its -145, does that mean you need to bet $145 to make $100...
If its +130, does that mean you need to bet $100 to make $130...



You have it exactly correct.


Ok so just so i'm 100% clear. for the -145... if i bet $145 will i make $245

and for the +130... if i bet $100 i get $230

thanks for the help man
6/9/11 8:35 PM
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Tenor still 10ing
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Markos - 

Ok so just so i'm 100% clear. for the -145... if i bet $145 will i make $245

and for the +130... if i bet $100 i get $230

thanks for the help man


Yep, correct, and you are welcome.

Just a few more pointers:

1. Be careful wagering on guys coming off serious injuries or very long layoffs. These have the potential to affect a fighter's performance in comparison to before the injury or long layoff.

2. The whole key is how a guy's strengths and weaknesses match up against the opponent's strengths and weaknesses. This is what is meant by style vs. style, it's the unique way any 2 fighters match up against each other. It's also why the so-called MMAmath doesn't work very well.....Fighter A beats Fighter B, Fighter B beats Fighter C, but Fighter C may just beat Fighter A's ass.

3. It's easier to make a profit if you concentrate your money (and mental efforts) on a few fights on a card. The more fights you wager on, the more risk. The more fights, the more times you are fighting the spreads. The more fights you spread your money around on, the more edge the book has over you. I have typically preferred to make one large wager per event, perhaps 2, but have learned it's more difficult to make a profit the more fights I bet on. When you see good value, go big on it. Making one large wager will be more profitable than making 3 medium wagers on that card (in the long run, that is....and that is where gamblers live, or die.....in the long run).

4. The better you know a fighter and his particular skill set, the more accurately your wager will be when involving that fighter. So, experience with the fighters is everything. Stick to the guys you know well. The less you have seen a guy fight, the less accurate your analysis will be. Makes sense, right? But this is easy to violate, for many reasons. Also, attempt to limit your wagering (at least big bets) to guys that have an extensive enough history against decent competition to give you enough solid data to accurately gauge their relative skills. That is one of the most difficult skills to develop in MMA wagering: determining the actual level of skills a fighter possesses. This takes an honest and thorough objective reasoning, quality data on the fighter's experience, and a knowledge of his opponent's skill levels. Practice makes perfect, learn from your mistakes and apply that knowledge more accurately next time.

5. Public MMA picks made by "MMA writers" can be used to acquire information or a different perspective, but be very wary of basing your bets on them. Why? Because most of them suck at analyzing fights. If they were great fight predictors, they would be making money on their analysis, not spending so much time writing or blogging about it. Truthfully, accurate MMA analysis is very time-consuming, and writing up MMA event predictions for some internet website is also very time-costly. That's why few winning gamblers write up their picks on the internet. They don't have the time to do both, and live their life. Only so many hours in a day.....

6. Be very wary of the perils of name recognition. The more familiar a name is....the more naturally we give that fighter too much credit for his skills. This is why 98% of incumbent politicians get re-elected....it's human nature to over-value name recognition based merely upon that familiarity. For instance, when a fighter ages and slows down, his skills naturally erode as a result. But many gamblers are slow to realize when this happens due to the power of name recognition. It's easy to think the fighter today is capable of doing what he could do yesterday. This is a huge pitfall, and if you are going to be successful at MMA wagering, you absolutely must learn to separate a fighter's skills from the power and emotional attachment of his name.

7. Avoid big favorites. The price for them is steep, the spreads are large, and to make money in the long run your accuracy rate must be so high it's far too difficult to profit consistently. Let the suckers bet the huge favorites, it's not where the smart money goes imo. Personally, I rarely go above -260 unless I have damn good reasons to do so. I feel there are better bets than putting my money on -300 or -400 fighters, and I hate risking so much to make so little. Favorites are over-valued imo because the gloves are only 4 oz. and there are a thousand ways to lose an MMA fight.

8. I stick almost exclusively to the UFC. The refs and judges in the smaller shows will fuck up and cost you more often imo. Take Bellator....almost every event they put on has a judging or reffing controversy. It's hard enough making the right pick, why subject yourself to getting screwed by small-time refs and judges, too? I don't bother, but perhaps that's just me. I don't know. It's also easier for me to get know fighters when I concentrate on one organization. But again, could be just personal preference. I could see an argument for there being good bets (and thus good profits) on the smaller shows. Just not the way I prefer to wager on MMA.

These are just some of the things I had to work out before making a consistent profit. I could write a few more, but I am tired of typing. :)

Good luck, man.
6/9/11 9:11 PM
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Markos
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you are the man, i will definitely read over these and use them. I've really been intrested in betting for a while.

Thanks for your help man
11/4/11 4:21 AM
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Tenor still 10ing
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9. Parlays are a sucker's bets. The reason: the payoff requires a high accuracy rate to profit strongly over time. This does not seem to be true, as the payouts appear to be huge, but it's the reality. There are so many factors that will affect a fight's outcome accurately, so to think you are going to be able to pick 3 winning fights on the card with the required accuracy and consistency is simple arrogance. Parlays are also overly-attractive to those with small bankrolls that hope to hit a big payoff with small monetary risk. Avoid parlays and you will build a bankroll more effectively.

10. Arrogance is a stealthy enemy. It will blind you. Arrogance will slip into the place where your due diligence used to be and your prediction accuracy rates will suffer. If you go on a good winning streak, keep in mind the luck factor (randomness). The truth is that short-term randomness may confuse you and cause you to think your prediction skills are more advanced than they are. And soon after, this delusion will cost you money. Keep your head straight and learn about randomness and variance. This is basic and mandatory wagering research.

11. Most bookies and line-setters hate the word "value". Well, they may not hate it, but certainly they have no respect for it's usage. I use it occasionally because it confers a specific definition to me regarding a bet and it's a habit from my poker playing. The reason bookies believe the word "value" marks a loser every time is simple: there is only one reason to make a wager on a fighter: you believe he will win. Putting money on "value" is ignorant and the reason is that it doesn't matter if a line is way off or not.....you only get your money back if your fighter wins.

What I mean is this....Example...at UFC 137 Hatsu Hioki and George Roop's odds were close to this:

Hioki -400
Roop +300

Hioki was a HUGE favorite to win. You had to risk $400 just to win $100. Yet, how did the fight go? It was damn close, and the fight result was a split-decision win for Hioki. Now, the line was way off, obviously. Was there "value" in the line? Of course not. Because the Roop bet still lost their money. If Hioki won by a 7-second KO, the result is the same: a Roop bet lost. Now, it's tempting to think this: "Well, I bet Roop and got great value because the line was way off and I almost won the bet. Although I lost money, I almost won so I got good value."

No, there is no value in a lost bet. NONE. Get that straight in your head. Close to winning your bet doesn't mean anything. You either win or lose a wager. It's as simple as that, and this concept had better very clear to you. Betting for "value" per se is foolish and a sure way to go bust your bankroll.

12. Bankroll management is key to any type of gambling, whether it's sports betting, casino gambling, or poker. Research this extensively and thoroughly. why? Because without proper bankroll management it doesn't matter how good you are predicting fights, you will go broke sooner or later. The reason is variance and proper bet-sizing in relation to your bankroll. What do those 2 things mean? If you don't know, you are not a winning gambler. So, do your research.

Best of luck to you fellers.
11/5/11 8:35 PM
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Team GDP
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bleek316 - Great thread! Any advice on which websites are okay to bet on?
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/recommended+list/
3/8/13 8:05 PM
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Rodger Dodger
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I use http://bestfightodds.com

They compare multiple gambling websites to see which ones have the best fight odds.

My own strategy is to consistently go for underdogs. If the line is +300 or above, I place a bet. For example the Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen fights have huge odds against Sonnen. They are 700+. I'll place money on Sonnen because I know those odds are inflated by hype.
3/11/13 8:30 PM
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gracie
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Rodger Dodger - I use http://bestfightodds.com

They compare multiple gambling websites to see which ones have the best fight odds.

My own strategy is to consistently go for underdogs. If the line is +300 or above, I place a bet. For example the Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen fights have huge odds against Sonnen. They are 700+. I'll place money on Sonnen because I know those odds are inflated by hype.

I like bestfightodds.com as well

 

I recommend you make your own odds up first before you look at your bookies lines.

Whenever the official line is wayyy off on what you think the line should be..then you should jump on that team/play.

 

Google Billy Walters..he is a sick sports gambler and has people at all of the casinos that assist him in moving lines.

3/14/13 8:02 PM
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UGCTT_ForeverOwnedByFryedTakayama
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Epic bump guys.
Thanks Phone Post
11/22/13 1:25 PM
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gatorlaw
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Edited: 11/22/13 1:26 PM
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Subbed.  Great thread.  I can attest to being a newbie falling for the parlay.  To get my feet wet in betting I put a $15 3-fight parlay to win $80 on McDonald-Evans-Hendrix (L-W-L).  Lesson learned.  Will read up more and bet smarter next time.  Had I read your advice, I would have put my money an 'Shad.  I thought he was very undervalued in that line.

11/27/13 6:05 PM
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ChrisWeidmanedmydiameter
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I forgot I made this thread haha.

I also need to stop doing screen name bets... Phone Post 3.0

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