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7/3/13 8:35 AM
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RJJH
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how about Cub - Siver? I cant wrap my head around that one.

7/3/13 12:14 PM
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UGCTT_mojodmonky
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Paddypower has Frankie Edgar by KO or Decision @ 1.40, bet the house

All over that. Plus leben as an underdog against Andrew Craig!? Even if the crippler shows up drunk he should have that one. Boetsch is value as a dog against Munoz too in my book Phone Post

i think im on the other side of both of these fights.

Leben looked terrible his last time out against a late replacement guy. Granted, Brunson went for the basic TD to LNP technique, but its not like Leben was lighting him up on the feet even before getting taken down. Craig may not have the wrestling pedigree that Brunson has, but Craigs striking is probably light years ahead of Brunson's.

7/5/13 7:25 PM
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Bixby
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LOL!

Richie did Bobby Lupo? THat is hilarious and I didnt know your nickname origin!

Nearly died:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHts1rGfnXE&feature=player_detailpage#t=250s

I mean that whole scene is perfect!

Bobby Lupo LOL!
7/5/13 7:27 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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Richie did it over that hot tomato Roxanne Phone Post 3.0
7/5/13 8:11 PM
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Bixby
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Bobby Lupo - Richie did it over that hot tomato Roxanne Phone Post 3.0

I would have done the same as Richie!
7/6/13 7:07 AM
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burner22
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UGCTT_mojodmonky -
burner22 - 
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Paddypower has Frankie Edgar by KO or Decision @ 1.40, bet the house

All over that. Plus leben as an underdog against Andrew Craig!? Even if the crippler shows up drunk he should have that one. Boetsch is value as a dog against Munoz too in my book Phone Post

i think im on the other side of both of these fights.

Leben looked terrible his last time out against a late replacement guy. Granted, Brunson went for the basic TD to LNP technique, but its not like Leben was lighting him up on the feet even before getting taken down. Craig may not have the wrestling pedigree that Brunson has, but Craigs striking is probably light years ahead of Brunson's.

Yeah leben looked woeful in his last fight, I'm thinking he knows he's in the last chance saloon for this fight tho. And I've never been impressed with Craig. Phone Post
7/6/13 4:33 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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Kennedy, Edgar, leben, ando, siver (I underrate cub for losing to the ghost of Jens) Gonzaga Phone Post 3.0
7/6/13 4:52 PM
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MarcVanBas
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I also know I underate cub, (never had the chance to get out the blocks against aldo) but I picking him over silver and I think the Ross fights for both swayed me. Cub by UD
7/6/13 7:33 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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Risk 
US$ 239.92
To Win
US$ 106.63
Y
7/6/13 11:05 PM
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burner22
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UGCTT_mojodmonky -
burner22 - 
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Paddypower has Frankie Edgar by KO or Decision @ 1.40, bet the house

All over that. Plus leben as an underdog against Andrew Craig!? Even if the crippler shows up drunk he should have that one. Boetsch is value as a dog against Munoz too in my book Phone Post

i think im on the other side of both of these fights.

Leben looked terrible his last time out against a late replacement guy. Granted, Brunson went for the basic TD to LNP technique, but its not like Leben was lighting him up on the feet even before getting taken down. Craig may not have the wrestling pedigree that Brunson has, but Craigs striking is probably light years ahead of Brunson's.

Good call bro Phone Post
7/7/13 5:35 AM
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Bixby
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Last nights bet:

http://www10.pic-upload.de/07.07.13/q99u8gfrvvmj.jpg

Ill never forget Seth for this and I picked Chris in the end...the parlay was screwed during the prelims and my night was done.

Cocky Silva in that ME? Ive never seen anything like it. It was insane. I knew it would be insane as soon as he told Chris to come at him after a minute or so...KNEW IT!
7/7/13 6:30 AM
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raags
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holy fucking shit

7/7/13 8:28 AM
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raags
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Did awesome on Frankie, few fliers that didn't go my way (Silva dec., Weidman dec., Herman outright)

Kennedy was a money bet here and I wish I watched Kennedy vs. Jacare before tonight. Dude is awesome, great at sticking to a gameplan, very intelligent fighter

Heartbroken, shocked, and awed at the Silva fight. I felt Weidman was a real threat but did not expect it to go down like that.

--

UFC on Fox 8 I think DJ is great value at -400, I like Mitrione but will wait for props on that, Masvidal opened at -140 which is insane value and I still think he is good at the current -210 you can get him at

I want to bet Siyar as well but I think I'm blinded by my love for him

7/7/13 8:35 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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Kennedy and Frankie saved me from total destruction. 

7/8/13 7:42 AM
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Lazer MMA
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AS back down to only -220! Hammered down hard again after it looked like it was moving the way you'd figure last week with AS becoming more of a favorite. Red flag!


So fuckin this!

Bobby BTW I have no idea why you made a thread talking about betting AS with the premises you asserted prior here based on the Sakara fight after I broke that fight down and essentially refuted the premises (without a need to watch but a few seconds on round 3 to boot). Solid poster but 0/10 on that one.
7/8/13 7:47 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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Lazer MMA - 
Lazer MMA - 
AS back down to only -220! Hammered down hard again after it looked like it was moving the way you'd figure last week with AS becoming more of a favorite. Red flag!


So fuckin this!

Bobby BTW I have no idea why you made a thread talking about betting AS with the premises you asserted prior here based on the Sakara fight after I broke that fight down and essentially refuted the premises (without a need to watch but a few seconds on round 3 to boot). Solid poster but 0/10 on that one.

I'll own up to it. Weidman was going to take it with or without Silva's clowning. I have a hard time judging local guys. I'll always remember them from when they were starting out and raw. I still think Costa Phillpou is a good boxer who needs to train his ground game, and he's a top 15 middleweight in the world.

7/8/13 1:20 PM
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UGCTT_mojodmonky
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UGCTT_mojodmonky -
burner22 - 
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Paddypower has Frankie Edgar by KO or Decision @ 1.40, bet the house

All over that. Plus leben as an underdog against Andrew Craig!? Even if the crippler shows up drunk he should have that one. Boetsch is value as a dog against Munoz too in my book Phone Post

i think im on the other side of both of these fights.

Leben looked terrible his last time out against a late replacement guy. Granted, Brunson went for the basic TD to LNP technique, but its not like Leben was lighting him up on the feet even before getting taken down. Craig may not have the wrestling pedigree that Brunson has, but Craigs striking is probably light years ahead of Brunson's.

Good call bro Phone Post

thanks.

unfortunately these picks couldnt save me from making the #1 cardinal sin of betting.

POOR BANKROLL MANAGEMENT.

Ended up taking a bit of a loss this weekend due to piss poor bankroll management. Ando fucked me proper.

Had. $75 on Gonzaga @ -235. Line dropped to -175 so I reloaded for $47 more. WIN!

Had $35 on Parke @ -140. WIN!

Had $40 on Craig @ -155. WIN!

Had $50 on Munoz @ -125. Line dropped to +115 so I reloaded for $25 more. WIN!

I was feeling pretty good about myself at this time, and against better judgment put $10 on Roger. This was more of a degen bet than anything. I was leaning Kennedy, but could not bring myself to root against Roger. I was also 10 beers in and felt pretty good about throwing $10 away since I had gotten off to a solid start. Oh well... its just $10 bucks.

sat out FE/Oliveira fight.

then came the tidal wave of bad news. Had $270 on Ando @ -270. Reloaded for $250 more @ -250. Reloaded for $120 more @ -240. With 1 flush punch on the chin, I saw it all go down the toilet.

Why Ando Why?

7/8/13 6:20 PM
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UGCTT_mojodmonky
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^ my problem is that I dont have access to parlays. I bet with a local and he doesnt offer parlays on MMA bets. That would be a gamechanger for me.
7/8/13 6:28 PM
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RJJH
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UFC on FOX.

Mitrione - without question Matt is going to KO Shuab in the 1st. Mitrione improves with every fight, and is a better fighter as it is.

Ellenburger - I might be way off base but I really dont see a way Rory wins this fight.

Siyar - he will put on a show going toe to toe with Robbie. I think Siyar wins a decision with Lawler simply because they are both durable guys and will fight tentatively due to respecting each others power.

 

bank that shit boys.

7/8/13 8:39 PM
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raags
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RJJH - 

UFC on FOX.

Mitrione - without question Matt is going to KO Shuab in the 1st. Mitrione improves with every fight, and is a better fighter as it is.

Ellenburger - I might be way off base but I really dont see a way Rory wins this fight.

Siyar - he will put on a show going toe to toe with Robbie. I think Siyar wins a decision with Lawler simply because they are both durable guys and will fight tentatively due to respecting each others power.

 

bank that shit boys.


Lazy evaluation. You also were big on SIyar over DHK, Couture over Pearson, Gracie over Kennedy... awful bets, again with no real analysis behind them. Mitrione is 34 - and what improvement did you see in the Kongo and Nelson fights? I think he is good value but Schaub could win a dec., he has good TDs and is not afraid to use them. And when has Lawler ever been tentative? I think Siyar is more technical but Lawler is tougher and gamer with more power. SIyar has never been KOed though and I plan on rewatching some fights to see how good his chin is, and if he fades in the later rounds or not... I've only seen his UFC fights and maybe one more.

 

Ellenberger vs. Macdonald

You are completely off base if you see 'no way' Rory beats Ellenberger. Rory's striking is sick - he has good footwork, a very diverse attack (calf kicks, leg kicks, fake low>high kick, push kick, good straight punches, great body hooks, stepping in elbows), great cardio. Rory is great at sticking to a gameplan and fighting smart as well. Rory's downside is that he is a bit hittable and Ellenberger does, of course, throw bombs... but Ellenberger's cardio is shit and technically he is inferior everywhere except wrestling. 

 

If Rory weathers the early storm, he is almost guaranteed to win this... Rory is rightfully the significant favourite, but as to whether there is a disparity in value between the betting odds and his winning percentage is something I'm not set on or not yet.

 

 

7/8/13 9:55 PM
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raags
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Edited: 07/08/13 9:58 PM
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^^ good posts

7/9/13 7:11 AM
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Bixby
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Fox card

Demetrious Johnson-425
John Moraga +340

Jake Ellenberger+185
Rory Macdonald -225

Mac Danzig -115
Melvin Guillard -105

Brendan Schaub +100
Matt Mitrione -120

Jorge Masvidal -250
Michael Chiesa +210

Jessica Andrade +450
Liz Carmouche -600

Robbie Lawler -125
Siyar Bahadurzada+105

Johnson, McDonald's, MITRIONE, Masvidal and Carmouche.

Danzig/Guillard:

Always a KO chance with Melvin. If Danzig survives a fresh Melvin hes more than capable of outpointing or even subbing the guy. Gonna check the KO prop for Melvin when it comes out. Wittman trains him now which is good.

Johnson U. Dec.

Schaubs girlfriend is such a scank for not telling him that last week, he accidentally bumped into a wall and was out and he couldnt remember it. Dollahs feel good I guess. Meathead KO!

Very gud feeling that McDonalds'll do it. Hes gonna win convincingly by...POINTS!

Since I busted my UFC 162 parlay with 1 wrong pick (1) Ima bet straight this event...I hope ;)

Good luck and Ill be back!
7/9/13 7:50 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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Some solid picks here. Danzig is  going to sub Melvin, remember the Melvin G rule? If the guy has subs, Melvin loses.

Schaub-Mitrione is going to be ugly. Schaub is going to try and grapplefuck Meathead. He'll succeed if he doesn't get touched on the chin. He makes Arlovski look like Cabbage and Hunt combined.

Rory is going to beat Jake by wearing him out through changing tactics. Ellenberger is gonna swing for homeruns and Rory is going to be fight a very cautious, tactical GSP type of fight and do enough to win. Jake will have a gas shortage like the Carter administration.

Masvidal puts on a striking clinic

Lawler with the killshot. He loves technical strikers. No way a Pat Miletich guy loses to an Afghan. Iowa Jesus will not let that happen.

7/9/13 8:01 AM
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raags
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I don't like Carmouche at all at -600

7/9/13 8:04 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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I don't like Carmouche at all at -600


I'd avoid any womens' fight bets. We just don't know enough.


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