UnderGround Forums
 

UnderGround Forums >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky


7/8/13 8:39 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
70 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 752
RJJH - 

UFC on FOX.

Mitrione - without question Matt is going to KO Shuab in the 1st. Mitrione improves with every fight, and is a better fighter as it is.

Ellenburger - I might be way off base but I really dont see a way Rory wins this fight.

Siyar - he will put on a show going toe to toe with Robbie. I think Siyar wins a decision with Lawler simply because they are both durable guys and will fight tentatively due to respecting each others power.

 

bank that shit boys.


Lazy evaluation. You also were big on SIyar over DHK, Couture over Pearson, Gracie over Kennedy... awful bets, again with no real analysis behind them. Mitrione is 34 - and what improvement did you see in the Kongo and Nelson fights? I think he is good value but Schaub could win a dec., he has good TDs and is not afraid to use them. And when has Lawler ever been tentative? I think Siyar is more technical but Lawler is tougher and gamer with more power. SIyar has never been KOed though and I plan on rewatching some fights to see how good his chin is, and if he fades in the later rounds or not... I've only seen his UFC fights and maybe one more.

 

Ellenberger vs. Macdonald

You are completely off base if you see 'no way' Rory beats Ellenberger. Rory's striking is sick - he has good footwork, a very diverse attack (calf kicks, leg kicks, fake low>high kick, push kick, good straight punches, great body hooks, stepping in elbows), great cardio. Rory is great at sticking to a gameplan and fighting smart as well. Rory's downside is that he is a bit hittable and Ellenberger does, of course, throw bombs... but Ellenberger's cardio is shit and technically he is inferior everywhere except wrestling. 

 

If Rory weathers the early storm, he is almost guaranteed to win this... Rory is rightfully the significant favourite, but as to whether there is a disparity in value between the betting odds and his winning percentage is something I'm not set on or not yet.

 

 

7/8/13 9:55 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
70 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 07/08/13 9:58 PM
Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 753

^^ good posts

7/9/13 7:11 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bixby
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/14/10
Posts: 1271
Fox card

Demetrious Johnson-425
John Moraga +340

Jake Ellenberger+185
Rory Macdonald -225

Mac Danzig -115
Melvin Guillard -105

Brendan Schaub +100
Matt Mitrione -120

Jorge Masvidal -250
Michael Chiesa +210

Jessica Andrade +450
Liz Carmouche -600

Robbie Lawler -125
Siyar Bahadurzada+105

Johnson, McDonald's, MITRIONE, Masvidal and Carmouche.

Danzig/Guillard:

Always a KO chance with Melvin. If Danzig survives a fresh Melvin hes more than capable of outpointing or even subbing the guy. Gonna check the KO prop for Melvin when it comes out. Wittman trains him now which is good.

Johnson U. Dec.

Schaubs girlfriend is such a scank for not telling him that last week, he accidentally bumped into a wall and was out and he couldnt remember it. Dollahs feel good I guess. Meathead KO!

Very gud feeling that McDonalds'll do it. Hes gonna win convincingly by...POINTS!

Since I busted my UFC 162 parlay with 1 wrong pick (1) Ima bet straight this event...I hope ;)

Good luck and Ill be back!
7/9/13 7:50 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
90 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 42783

Some solid picks here. Danzig is  going to sub Melvin, remember the Melvin G rule? If the guy has subs, Melvin loses.

Schaub-Mitrione is going to be ugly. Schaub is going to try and grapplefuck Meathead. He'll succeed if he doesn't get touched on the chin. He makes Arlovski look like Cabbage and Hunt combined.

Rory is going to beat Jake by wearing him out through changing tactics. Ellenberger is gonna swing for homeruns and Rory is going to be fight a very cautious, tactical GSP type of fight and do enough to win. Jake will have a gas shortage like the Carter administration.

Masvidal puts on a striking clinic

Lawler with the killshot. He loves technical strikers. No way a Pat Miletich guy loses to an Afghan. Iowa Jesus will not let that happen.

7/9/13 8:01 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
70 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 755

I don't like Carmouche at all at -600

7/9/13 8:04 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
90 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 42786
raags - 

I don't like Carmouche at all at -600


I'd avoid any womens' fight bets. We just don't know enough.

7/9/13 8:07 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8661

Well after reading above fish (LOL @ ironing of name) & to some other posters I've read post here in fairness, I admit I'm taken back big time (to be quite nice LOL).

So I'll say the following to help you out:

As a vet of betting (& life even more importantly) don't invest time (meaning 'even' 'worrying' about betting) for chump change (meaning to win only chump change)! If you don't have it you can't bet it, to be a piker is ok, it is what it is; however, in that spot I'd look to connect for a 50 or 100 spot on a well thought out parlay, & look to start really playing after I connect on one. Those of us who know (yes that is damn few) understand that we can grow a bank roll into a life sustaining force for our families and more.

7/9/13 8:21 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
70 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 756

Proper bankroll management and bet weighting is valuable regardless of if you are playing small stakes or big, what strategies are most efficient do not differ with your base amounts as it all scales linearly. 

7/9/13 9:21 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8662

I guess I was waiting my time LOL.

But yea, you bet $50 to win $50 (about) = Don't fuckin bather IMO (life piker contract), unless you are just keeping a dedicated account (advised no matter what) and looking to take a good amount of time to get a base bank roll (Min. about 3K). If you can at least bet $500 then you'll have some chances to just do some straight betting to get the bank roll. I'd rather keep throwing $'s in this case (very low funds) in parlays at odds until I connected. Just a personal preference.

Skill at betting is huge (picking winners), I'm not here to tell any of you you have any.

All I'm saying is my advise is NOT to waist time.

In MMA we can't give points (NFL) to get even money odds (about), so it's a slower progression (getting the 3K) to get started. But yea having a plan (an idea of growing a dedicated account) with your personal foot print in is imperative to possible success. That overall was the essence of the basic help I was trying to convey is all. Best of skill to all....


7/9/13 9:50 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bixby
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/14/10
Posts: 1272
Pinpoint Lazer accuracy right here :D


Do NOT be emotionaly invested in it. Meaning dont lose your mind if a bet goes wrong. It is MMA after all...nothings certain but if you analyse with a clear mind you can beat the system here, and dont fall into the hypereactor.

BR management is inevitable. Im small time, but parlays are a relatively good way to boost BR for starters. I 100 % agree with Lazer here.

Lets say you managed to build a BR of 5k...matchups like Mendes/Cody or Edgar/Oliveira will make you cream your goddamn pants.

Good luck ;)
7/9/13 10:20 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8665

Very IMPORTANT advise by Bixby! "Do NOT be emotionaly invested". No steaming (do not fuck with your bank roll!)and if it's smarter for you (emotion - for whatever reason) do not watch an event. Go get a piece of ass or go drinking, whatever, we all need to skip some events to keep it even keel sometimes IMO.

7/9/13 1:18 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8675

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01848/million-dog-620_1848773b.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8383084/1-million-for-worlds-most-expensive-dog.html&h=471&w=620&sz=79&tbnid=H3I_2p6aNKiLmM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=122&zoom=1&usg=__vrE0V0zbBoUpauiBKybV6wJW4E8=&docid=SxO4t3T84S1ndM&sa=X&ei=SkTcUaHnDNiq4AOrp4FI&ved=0CDoQ9QEwAg&dur=5349

Great try to buy this one fish! If you want to figure out if you stand a chance to do that track fake bets with a 'fake' bankroll, it's free (& cool)! If you find you can win, use the suggestions above offered would be my advise. The poster you refer to is also a fish BTW IMO. Have a good one... Best of luck
7/9/13 1:45 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 07/09/13 1:58 PM
Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8677

No one is free, and can possibly be of a longer duration, as who TF wants to lose "between 50$ and 100$" (Sp?) a pop to find out they can't win like 99 percent of others?

Sorry if I offended you, I was really just trying to illustrate some basic pointers as a courtesy to Ug'ers. I do admit I find the combination of your SN & posts comical and apropos.

I'm not here to teach, only gave a small thought. It's something like just pointing out that in chess (as an example) after 1. F4 & 1. ...E5 2. G5 is a fuckin joke and only a "fool" would play as such as is all. Those that can do, do. Those that can not teach and write books.

7/9/13 1:52 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
UGCTT_mojodmonky
21 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/4/11
Posts: 931
Great post earlier fishyfish.

My strategy regarding parlays is in line with your thinking. I wouldnt be doing any 5 fight fliers or anything like that... well thats a lie. I probably would, but moreso just for fun and no more than a couple pennies here and there.

My focus with parlays would be getting a somewhat decent return on multiple heavy favorites. Lazer mentioned one recent heavy favorite in Mendes/Cody. Of the top of my head, I dont remember what the opening line was (probably Mendes -600 or so) but I remember thinking that even at that price there is +EV. Roll that fight 100 times and Mendes probably wins 98 times easy. The problem is, I have a limited bankroll (i play with around $2,000 total) and dont want to lockup that much on such a big favorite. If i had the opportunity to parlay a -600 with another +EV -500 for -250, I would do that in a heartbeat.
7/9/13 2:00 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8678

"Lazer mentioned one recent heavy favorite in Mendes/Cody."

No sir
7/9/13 2:14 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 07/09/13 2:15 PM
Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8680

NP fish, the limited data & betting tactics supplied is logical to you or no. Fair enough

BTW in NO way does 'piker' mean 'loser' or 'schmucks', let me be clear on that one LOL! 2. G5 is a very bad move though and I've just offered you better.
7/9/13 4:29 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8685

Weidman +100 vs. Silva -140 rematch odds
http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/ns/mma.cfm?go=forum.posts&thread=2198684&forum=1&page=1&pc=7#post-45518136
7/9/13 4:56 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
90 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 42793
Lazer MMA - 
Weidman +100 vs. Silva -140 rematch odds
http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/ns/mma.cfm?go=forum.posts&thread=2198684&forum=1&page=1&pc=7#post-45518136

GSP-Serra 2 part 2

7/9/13 6:48 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bixby
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/14/10
Posts: 1274
Weidman +160 on Sportsbook?

+160!?!?!?!?!?

I just ate a burger and thought this fuckin' day couldnt get any better. THx Odessa...thank you!
7/9/13 7:13 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 8691
Bixby - Weidman +160 on Sportsbook?

+160!?!?!?!?!?

I just ate a burger and thought this fuckin' day couldnt get any better. THx Odessa...thank you!


Do they do US traffic? Are they reliable? WOW, give me that shit!
7/15/13 9:30 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bixby
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/14/10
Posts: 1281
Demetrious Johnson-450
John Moraga +360
Jake Ellenberger+185
Rory Macdonald -225
Mac Danzig -115
Melvin Guillard -105
Jorge Masvidal -260
Michael Chiesa +220
Jessica Andrade +450
Liz Carmouche -600
Bobby Voelker +245
Robbie Lawler -290

Reminder: Johnson, McDonald, GUILLARD, Masvidal, LAWLER!

Im not touching Carmouche...not worth it.

Thought about Danzig and Im laying some juice on Guillard. Danzig is a grinder...yeah he can sub him but the speed difference is enormous here and I fully believe now thats hes Wittman, it'll turn out just good for Melvin. Low fight IQ is always the problem but Im willing to take the risk...

Voelker is tough...Robbies tougher. He touches him and Bobby goes down. Both very tough guys but I dont see Voelker having a superior element to his skills. He can strike and grind but Robbie doesnt fuck round. Koscheck is a way superior opponent than Voelker.

Voelker is a victim of the Strikeforce purchase hence the long layoff PLUS first UFC fight. Bobby may fucked a bit too much with Joe Silva telling him to grow up or seomthing LOl ;) and hes gotta pay for it.

Parlay: Johnson, McDonald, Masvidal
Straight: Guillard and Lawler

UFC 163: Aldo vs. Jung

Chan Sung Jung +550
Jose Aldo -800
Lyoto Machida -360
Phil Davis +300
Anthony Perosh +240
Vinny Magalhaes -300

Aldo, Machida, VINNY!!! Kirik may change my name to EasyCASH because thats what this fuckin' event is.

Machida is too good here. He will stay in Machida range and pick Davis apart. Occasionally Davis will press him against the cage if hes lucky and do nothing to make him the victor here. Always got the feeling his wrestling didnt transition that well into MMA.

No value for these 2 events...if you like winning thats it.
7/17/13 9:25 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
70 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 766

I dunno how much I like Rory at heavy -odds. I think he is rightfully the favourite, but he is hittable and Ellenberger has dynamite in his fists. I am likely not going to play that fight... if my bookie offered Ellenberger in Rd 1 (which is at +550 atm) I'd take Rory hedged with that.

 

MM is great value at the -400 he is at now.I rewatched some MM fights lately... and cannot see why he is not a bigger favourite. He is very polished, well rounded, fights smart, recovers well, flawless cardio, good technical striking game. Will go moderate-large on him.

 

Bixby, I agree with your analysis of Danzig/Guillard... I think there are some question marks on Guillard just due to him being unstable but I will likely make a play on him closer to the fight.

 

Masvidal was insane value at the opening line and is still good. Chiesa is good at winning fights that he loses on paper (Iaquinta, Lawrence) but Masvidal is three tiers above those TUFers.

 

I think Lawler is a very risky bet at -260~ and not really good value. Voelker is tough as fuck and Lawler leaves himself open. While I feel Lawler is the superior fighter, Voelker is a decent threat and Lawler's style doesn't make him a great bet as a heavy favourite. Will stay away or play small on Voelker.

 

Carmouche, as Lupo said, not enough WMMA footage to make a solid analysis... but I will likely play Andrade small at her huge +odds.

 

-----

 

I still think Machida is good value at -350.

Despite being a huge fan, I am not sold on Vinny... While he should be better than Perosh everywhere, he is chinny, with questionable fight IQ and poor cardio. He has all the tools to win this fight but he tends to throw fights away. Staying away at his heavy -odds.

 

7/24/13 11:31 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
90 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 43040
Mac and Masvidal. Phone Post 3.0
7/24/13 1:55 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
YousHerName
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 9/10/12
Posts: 997
Ed herman
Jorge Masvidal
Liz Carmouche
Robbie Lawler
Mighty Mouse

Bet the HOUSE on that parlay. Phone Post
7/24/13 1:57 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
YousHerName
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 9/10/12
Posts: 998
YousHerName - Ed herman
Jorge Masvidal
Liz Carmouche
Robbie Lawler
Mighty Mouse

Bet the HOUSE on that parlay. Phone Post
And if you want to get cray..
Add Melvin and Rory

But I would stay away from the Rory fight since Ellenberger is a beast. Phone Post

Reply Post

You must log in to post a reply. Click here to login.