UnderGround Forums
 

UnderGround Forums >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky

| Share | Email | Subscribe | Check IPs

9/17/13 4:53 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
burner22
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/17/12
Posts: 1399
Bobby Lupo -
burner22 - Anyone have a clue what the frankie/bj 3 odds will be? If there's value on frankie I'm betting big. I think people make too much of bj s conditioning and not enough of his technical failings
Don Lupo this might be a ginzo bet that actually pays off bro Phone Post 3.0

Frankie can't lose to an older and slower BJ. It's not a matter of conditioning, the gulf in speed and strategy between the two is a mile wide.
Apparently bj is now training at nova uniao. This gives me a little pause for thought. So many killers at that gym, might actually force baby jay to add a couple things to his arsenal? Phone Post 3.0
9/17/13 5:40 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44090
I don't care if BJ is doing nothing but lifting rocks underwater and went to Spam rehab. he ain't beating Frankie Edgar
9/19/13 12:10 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
71 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 779
UFC166?

I like small plays on:
Gusta by KO
Jones by dec

Moderate on:
Mitrione
Jones vs. Gustaffson fight starts round 2

Not a whole lot of value on the card IMO. The o2.5 at +125 (which it opened at) was stellar value but it's down to like -120 now
9/19/13 12:12 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
71 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 09/19/13 12:12 AM
Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 780
!! Paddypower has Jones/Gusta o2.5 at +100. Good value
9/19/13 12:16 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
71 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 781
I also like small plays on Wineland by dec. (its like at +1000) and the o2.5 on Barao/Wineland (at like -120)
9/19/13 12:23 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
71 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 783
What do you think Jones' gameplan will be? Outstrike Gustaffson at range? Look to counter Gustaffson's rushing flurries? Wear him down at range with strikes to the body / legs and then look for TDs in rounds 2/3/4/5? Will he be looking for GnP or subs from top position?

Gustaffson has tough skin and an amazing chin, I really can't see Jones (T)KOing him. I think Gustaffson's size will pose problems for Jones' offense from the bottom, and make it more difficult for Jones to TD from the clinch. I still think Jones will get TDs and inflict damage from the top... but for once, Jones is actually fighting a legitimate 'LHW' sized guy. The only other guy I'd say who he has fought that is close to elite level AND has size was Rampage, and Jones had a tough time taking him down.

I still think Jones wins this matchup the vast majority of the time but I think it'll be trickier than most people expect.
9/19/13 12:39 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
The Brool Story Company
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 5/18/13
Posts: 2241

whoever said putting small plays on Gus by TKO/KO and Jones by Decision is a smart man.

9/19/13 6:36 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
burner22
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/17/12
Posts: 1401
raags - What do you think Jones' gameplan will be? Outstrike Gustaffson at range? Look to counter Gustaffson's rushing flurries? Wear him down at range with strikes to the body / legs and then look for TDs in rounds 2/3/4/5? Will he be looking for GnP or subs from top position?

Gustaffson has tough skin and an amazing chin, I really can't see Jones (T)KOing him. I think Gustaffson's size will pose problems for Jones' offense from the bottom, and make it more difficult for Jones to TD from the clinch. I still think Jones will get TDs and inflict damage from the top... but for once, Jones is actually fighting a legitimate 'LHW' sized guy. The only other guy I'd say who he has fought that is close to elite level AND has size was Rampage, and Jones had a tough time taking him down.

I still think Jones wins this matchup the vast majority of the time but I think it'll be trickier than most people expect.
I'm thinking jones will look to stay on the outside and work the oblique kick and a few high kicks, then when he gets a chance, takedown and submit. Gus has the size, but it's kinda mitigated by the fact he usually prefers to use his hands.

I think that will allow bones to stay out of range, work his kicks to stay ahead, then look to time one of gus's flurries and get the td. Phone Post 3.0
9/19/13 7:15 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 9171

JBJ will lure Gus in (he wants to come in anyway), get the TD with his VASTLY superior wrestling and finish his man via hellbow (I'd guess hellbow). -1800 looks more realistic; however, after seeing JBJ's toe after the Sonnen fight and knowing I almost lost that pile of cash, I'm not laying -900 here!
9/19/13 8:38 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
UGCTT_El Pescadero
4529 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/16/12
Posts: 9415
Healy plus 195.... Lock it up! Phone Post 3.0
9/19/13 10:08 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Woodford Mike
57 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/23/10
Posts: 3044
5dimes has Healy 205

What do you guys think of Jones by submission 175? I tend to think Jones will will be looking to take him down (which he should be able to do) as opposed to try and trade with him. Seems like a decent play to me. Thoughts? Phone Post 3.0
9/19/13 7:38 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
raags
71 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 11/15/10
Posts: 787
You can get Jones by sub. or points around -150 and I think that's the best line for betting Jones
9/20/13 4:39 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44137
fishyfish - 

so Bobby, you wagering on the Bellator card ?


just on Saunders.

Saving my plays for Healy, Mitrione and Jones by sub and maybe some other JBJ props
9/22/13 9:37 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Lazer MMA
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/24/12
Posts: 9225
Bobby Lupo - 
fishyfish - 

so Bobby, you wagering on the Bellator card ?


just on Saunders.

Saving my plays for Healy, Mitrione and Jones by sub and maybe some other JBJ props


Well at least I saw no thread on Healy that you wrote LOL! Never doubted my fighter won with him & JBJ in a long tick through nov
9/22/13 10:28 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44176
Just bet against the guy I bet on. Another fucking disaster.
9/22/13 8:15 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44180
I really thought that Healy was going to grind that out in an ugly way. I slept of Khabib. Kid is legit, legit
10/5/13 9:52 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44417
Bet Wlad and the over. I'm in for 5 units on each. Phone Post 3.0
10/5/13 5:40 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44427
Nice score on Wlad Clinchko
10/6/13 10:04 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44441
It's a good thing when everybody in boxing does what they're supposed to do. Cotto and Wlad.
10/18/13 8:24 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bobby Lupo
142 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 44581
Night of the underdogs: Napao +175, G. Sot +160, 2 Saints +170, Dolloway +140.

Diego at +550???????? Tempting. Gil has off nights, and Diego is to good to be +550
10/18/13 3:46 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Woodford Mike
57 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/23/10
Posts: 3069
fishyfish - you guys want a lock ?

hedge your bets with an unbeatable advantage tonight:

BODOG: Peter Graham -275 vs. Eric Prindle +215


SPORTS INTERACTION: Peter Graham +210 vs. Eric Prindle -278


that's the best odds I've ever seen.

don't be shy to tip me later ;)
Has to be an error no? Did you go ahead and bet it? Phone Post 3.0
10/18/13 3:51 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Woodford Mike
57 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/23/10
Posts: 3070
5dimes has Graham the favorite (-270) and Prindle the dog (230).

I'd have to assume sports interaction takes that down soon. If not, somebody might be out of a job lol. Phone Post 3.0
10/18/13 11:53 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Il Duce
196 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/1/12
Posts: 1740
fishyfish - I Wonder what's the maximum one could put up and cash in on this scheme: 10,000$ ? probably less, right ?

Bro fist for the clever thinking, Mr Fish.
10/19/13 12:06 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Il Duce
196 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/1/12
Posts: 1741
Any of you gambling gurus know, from a statistical standpoint, what's the average amount of betting favorite upsets per main card and entire card? From a statistical standpoint, the Shields Maia card had quite a few. Any idea how outside of the norm that card was?

Usually when I'm watching a card, especially the main card, if the first few fights have a couple upsets then I kinda guess that from a statistical standpoint the favorites are more likely to win to following bouts, which more often than seems is the case. I also figure that if all the favorites have won the first two or three fights, the chance of an upset for the top or top two fights goes way up. Is there any truth to this or am I just talking voodoo mumbo jumbo jibber jabber?

The next question would be what are the same statistics for the main and co-main in terms of betting favorites win/loss rate.

Feel free to just ignore me, but if you entertain this no math skills having wookie, I'd appreciate it.
10/19/13 2:39 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Il Duce
196 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 2/1/12
Posts: 1746
fishyfish - ...things did not go quite as planned for me...

WORST WAGERING NIGHT FOR ME EVER
Damn, solely on that Prindle Graham bet? What happened? Phone Post 3.0

| Share | Email | Subscribe | Check IPs

Reply Post

You must log in to post a reply. Click here to login.