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UnderGround Forums >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky


10/18/13 8:24 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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Night of the underdogs: Napao +175, G. Sot +160, 2 Saints +170, Dolloway +140.

Diego at +550???????? Tempting. Gil has off nights, and Diego is to good to be +550
10/18/13 3:46 PM
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Woodford Mike
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fishyfish - you guys want a lock ?

hedge your bets with an unbeatable advantage tonight:

BODOG: Peter Graham -275 vs. Eric Prindle +215


SPORTS INTERACTION: Peter Graham +210 vs. Eric Prindle -278


that's the best odds I've ever seen.

don't be shy to tip me later ;)
Has to be an error no? Did you go ahead and bet it? Phone Post 3.0
10/18/13 3:51 PM
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Woodford Mike
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5dimes has Graham the favorite (-270) and Prindle the dog (230).

I'd have to assume sports interaction takes that down soon. If not, somebody might be out of a job lol. Phone Post 3.0
10/18/13 11:53 PM
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Il Duce
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fishyfish - I Wonder what's the maximum one could put up and cash in on this scheme: 10,000$ ? probably less, right ?

Bro fist for the clever thinking, Mr Fish.
10/19/13 12:06 AM
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Il Duce
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Any of you gambling gurus know, from a statistical standpoint, what's the average amount of betting favorite upsets per main card and entire card? From a statistical standpoint, the Shields Maia card had quite a few. Any idea how outside of the norm that card was?

Usually when I'm watching a card, especially the main card, if the first few fights have a couple upsets then I kinda guess that from a statistical standpoint the favorites are more likely to win to following bouts, which more often than seems is the case. I also figure that if all the favorites have won the first two or three fights, the chance of an upset for the top or top two fights goes way up. Is there any truth to this or am I just talking voodoo mumbo jumbo jibber jabber?

The next question would be what are the same statistics for the main and co-main in terms of betting favorites win/loss rate.

Feel free to just ignore me, but if you entertain this no math skills having wookie, I'd appreciate it.
10/19/13 2:39 AM
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Il Duce
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fishyfish - ...things did not go quite as planned for me...

WORST WAGERING NIGHT FOR ME EVER
Damn, solely on that Prindle Graham bet? What happened? Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 4:13 AM
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burner22
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Il Duce - Any of you gambling gurus know, from a statistical standpoint, what's the average amount of betting favorite upsets per main card and entire card? From a statistical standpoint, the Shields Maia card had quite a few. Any idea how outside of the norm that card was?

Usually when I'm watching a card, especially the main card, if the first few fights have a couple upsets then I kinda guess that from a statistical standpoint the favorites are more likely to win to following bouts, which more often than seems is the case. I also figure that if all the favorites have won the first two or three fights, the chance of an upset for the top or top two fights goes way up. Is there any truth to this or am I just talking voodoo mumbo jumbo jibber jabber?

The next question would be what are the same statistics for the main and co-main in terms of betting favorites win/loss rate.

Feel free to just ignore me, but if you entertain this no math skills having wookie, I'd appreciate it.
Not that I'm an expert, but I would say, on a fight card, the fight before has no bearing on the fight after. Like, if u are betting on heads vs tails, if heads comes up 50 times in a row, the odds of a tail coming up next are still 50/50. They don't change. Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 8:43 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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I have it saved on my other PC. A UG hero gave me a breakdown of the % of times a favorite won and it was like IIRC around 75% and most of those were really tight odds. There are always bad lines to be exploited. Coleman was +300 against Bonnar and Coleman wins that fight 99/100 times (he might DDT KO himself on a double leg once)

You really have to jump at the bad lines. I'll middle along until some wild shit like that jumps out.

I don't know if Diego is going to win tonight, but he's better than +550, so I'm riding him for a little.
10/19/13 8:48 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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I'm the only motherfucker who can make people money and get voted down 20 times in 2 days.

FUCK THE UG

10/19/13 9:27 AM
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RJJH
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tonight I like these parlay's

 

Noons - Dolloway

Diego - Gonzaga

 

 

10/19/13 10:24 AM
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IronArmy87
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RJJH -

tonight I like these parlay's

 

Noons - Dolloway

Diego - Gonzaga

 

 

With the high odds for Diego I'd take him straight up. I don't like putting big dogs in parays.

I have a single bet on Diego and parlayed Cain and Cormier 100 to win 80 Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 10:36 AM
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Mphelan
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http://www.fileswap.com/dl/6vOscrwzDE/

This is a spreadsheet that shows the results of every +400 or greater fight since 2007 in the numbered UFCs, as well as a hypothetical $100 initial deposit where $10 is bet on the underdog for each fight. Please excuse the chart, I began work on it over a year ago when my Excel skills were... shoddy. It hasn't been improved since.

Currently, betting on the underdog would leave an ending balance of $161.30 (down from a high of $302.80 in mid 2012). Betting on the favorite would leave an ending balance of $65.32.

The fourth tab shows the results of betting either completely for the favorite or completely for the underdog, from UFC Fight Night 21 to 26.

Betting on all of the favorites (consistent $10 bet per) would lead to a net increase of about $10 while betting on all the underdogs would lose about $50.

If I continue with this project (unlikely) I will need direct access to betting data feeds, rather than importing the tables from BestFightOdds.
10/19/13 10:54 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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That's my man mphalen right there.

My friend and I are working on a subset of 200 fights, assigning a classification to each fighter (wrestler, striker, bjj, jack of all) and a negative (bad tdd, gasser, submission dummy, chinny, poor takedowns).

I think we're close to solving scissors, rock and paper. Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 10:56 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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200 fights, not 200 fights Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 11:08 AM
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Mphelan
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We need to create a giant dataset for the UFC (as well as other) events so we can backtest our strategies efficiently.

Also, for your classifications, do you have weightings? Like, old Cro Cop is chinny, but he ain't Arlovski chinny.
10/19/13 11:11 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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Not weighted, but still shows a pattern. Additional info would prob make it even clearer Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 11:51 AM
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Illidan
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What are the recommended picks for tonight? Phone Post
10/19/13 1:15 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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I'm only going with dogs tonight: JDS, Diego, gonzaga, g sot, Dolloway Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 1:16 PM
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Bobby Lupo
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You'd probably make money if you just bet the favorites in those fights. Diego at 550 to anyone besides best of BJ Penn. Phone Post 3.0
10/19/13 6:05 PM
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Il Duce
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burner22 - 
Il Duce - Any of you gambling gurus know, from a statistical standpoint, what's the average amount of betting favorite upsets per main card and entire card? From a statistical standpoint, the Shields Maia card had quite a few. Any idea how outside of the norm that card was?

Usually when I'm watching a card, especially the main card, if the first few fights have a couple upsets then I kinda guess that from a statistical standpoint the favorites are more likely to win to following bouts, which more often than seems is the case. I also figure that if all the favorites have won the first two or three fights, the chance of an upset for the top or top two fights goes way up. Is there any truth to this or am I just talking voodoo mumbo jumbo jibber jabber?

The next question would be what are the same statistics for the main and co-main in terms of betting favorites win/loss rate.

Feel free to just ignore me, but if you entertain this no math skills having wookie, I'd appreciate it.
Not that I'm an expert, but I would say, on a fight card, the fight before has no bearing on the fight after. Like, if u are betting on heads vs tails, if heads comes up 50 times in a row, the odds of a tail coming up next are still 50/50. They don't change. Phone Post 3.0

Ok, but statistically there's an average number of upsets. My inquiry was what those numbers might look like for the card as a whole, the main card, and the main and co-main. I also wondered as the main card unfolded, how likely was an upset in the main or co-main if the favorites won their bouts and vice versa.

Like, do the odds shift, based on statistics, as the card goes on?
10/19/13 6:12 PM
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Il Duce
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Bobby Lupo - That's my man mphalen right there.

My friend and I are working on a subset of 200 fights, assigning a classification to each fighter (wrestler, striker, bjj, jack of all) and a negative (bad tdd, gasser, submission dummy, chinny, poor takedowns).

I think we're close to solving scissors, rock and paper. Phone Post 3.0

Thanks for the info and reply both you guys. It sounds like somebody would have to generate these stats, or I can just keep some kind of foggy mental notes. I figure this kind shit is worked out in baseball, yeah?

Still would be interesting to know. Hope your efforts pan out.
10/19/13 6:14 PM
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Il Duce
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fishyfish, that's bunk. May you recoup your scratch with a wicked vengeance.
10/20/13 1:38 PM
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Toquinho
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Volkswagen lupo? Phone Post 3.0
10/22/13 10:06 AM
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Bixby
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Its been a long time but Im back. Freakin laughable judges decisions that almost buried me completely. It is insane to bet on MMA. everyone that bets on MMA needs to go evaluate their mental health by a doc and tell me the results.


Machida -360 yes please...
Guillard -150 yes please...
11/1/13 7:47 AM
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Bobby Lupo
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pidgey - Rashad-Chael a mega lock?
I dont see how can Chael win?
He's not going to take down Rashad, no way in hell.
And Rashad's striking is like 100 times better.


Rashad might be shot or half shot. I can't bet on him after watching him play patty cake 2 fights in a row.

Logically, it's all Rashad, but I think something is off.

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