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UnderGround Forums >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky


12/6/12 8:40 AM
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BrCutter
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Olive Garden Table For One -
BrCutter - 

lol, I took note and voted Lups up like 6 times in the last two days and he went from -29 to -34.  Just got him to -33. Ridiculous that that's an issue.  Again, lol, how the hell do I have about 80 vote ups?  I guess i don't disagree much or my stalkers haven't found me yet.  


Thanks bro. I get frozen like every other day now with the vote downs. I would think that maybe I banged a bunch of dudes' girlfriends or something and they're voting me down out of revenge, but this is the UG....nobody has a real girlfriend. 

 

Grazie mille

Welcome boss. Just found out the other day I get a bunch of votes to use every day. Takes 3 seconds to click u up a few times and not let the haters win. Phone Post
12/6/12 8:45 AM
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Lazer MMA
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BrCutter - 
NorthFromHere -

Functional reach is more than just the length of your arms. If you have a long torso, you can lean further and that adds to your actual reach. 

100% on. Nobody get carried away with the wingspan. He's 6'5. That jab reaches way the fuck out there with that torso. Phone Post


Yep but if is in that position above for more than a second his ass is getting taken down.

On their feet Shogun can counter with kicks. Man this is a great fight IMO.
12/6/12 2:42 PM
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French Fries Malone
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VTFU bobby lupo



i have some money on shogun and a lil on bj and some parlays with benson so far,.
12/6/12 3:11 PM
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BaraoKix
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BrCutter - 
BaraoKix - 
Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?



How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"




LOL EXACTLY, thats why I said it...



Hes basing his "pick" off a reach advantage that isnt even there. Must be real high end bettor.
12/6/12 4:16 PM
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Woodford Mike
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BaraoKix -
BrCutter - 
BaraoKix - 
Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?



How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"




LOL EXACTLY, thats why I said it...



Hes basing his "pick" off a reach advantage that isnt even there. Must be real high end bettor.
Never claimed to be a high end bettor, far from it. Just sharing my thoughts on a message board and asking for feedback. I was wrong about an assumption I made and someone pointed it out (which I appreciate). Phone Post
12/7/12 12:35 AM
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raags
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Rory's TD game is severely overrated and BJ will work him on the feet

Benson will manhandle Nate to a 49-46 decision via top control/GnP but maybe get hit and rocked a couple times

Shogun will eat a lot of shots but come forward, Gustaffson is very hittable and Shogun has bombs (and a good TD game) and will score and possibly finish him at some point

Moderate plays on Benson by dec, Penn, and Shogun

In India travelling now but wish I could watch this card. So excited.
12/7/12 2:00 AM
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BrCutter
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Woodford Mike - 
BaraoKix -
BrCutter - 
BaraoKix - 
Woodford Mike - Been going back and forth on my picks for this card all week and I seem to be leaning towards Diaz, Gustafson and Penn.

Logic tells me that Henderson will be too big and powerful for Diaz and will manhandle him the way Rory did, but I also know that a) Diaz has improved by leaps and bounds since then and b) Henderson has great sub defense but he also manages to almost get caught at times and I think Diaz has a decent shot at catching him in a 5rd right.

As for Gustafson / Shogun, Im basing my call on the reach advantage and a hunch that maybe Shogun wont be in the best of shape.

The Penn / McDonald fight is the one im most shaky on. Im going Penn simply because this is a big fight (Fox) and Penn has far more big fight experience. Also think the odds on Penn are simply too attractive to pass on.

Thoughts?



How much of a reach advantage does Gus have over Shogun?

Gus 76.5

Rua 76"

It's a wash.  Nothing.  1/4" each arm.  A lot of people think he has a huge reach, but he doesn't, just uses that height pretty well.  

He's middle of the road for reach at lhw.  Hell, Phil Davis is close to 80".  I think he's a little over 79"




LOL EXACTLY, thats why I said it...



Hes basing his "pick" off a reach advantage that isnt even there. Must be real high end bettor.
Never claimed to be a high end bettor, far from it. Just sharing my thoughts on a message board and asking for feedback. I was wrong about an assumption I made and someone pointed it out (which I appreciate). Phone Post

lol, no worries Woodford. You were off on the wingspan advantage, but Gustaf still has a large mechanical advantage by virtute of his height and long torso.  It's not because of the wingspan, but he still has a good size advantage because of height and torso, and he also move a TON and from the outside to be able to utilize it.  It's effectively still a good advantage for Gustaf, but for slightly different reasons.  

Unless the variance is significant, the span doesn't matter much.  I realize they always do it on the tale of the tape for the UFC, but they make it out liek x fighter at 80" reach has a jab that is just going to beat up his opponent with a 77" reach.  It's an inch and half on each side, but there are lots of other people factors.  Just a misleading variable a lot of times.  It's very EASY to think Gustaf has long arms since he's 6'5".  

12/7/12 8:03 AM
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Olive Garden Table For One
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raags - Rory's TD game is severely overrated and BJ will work him on the feet

Benson will manhandle Nate to a 49-46 decision via top control/GnP but maybe get hit and rocked a couple times

Shogun will eat a lot of shots but come forward, Gustaffson is very hittable and Shogun has bombs (and a good TD game) and will score and possibly finish him at some point

Moderate plays on Benson by dec, Penn, and Shogun

In India travelling now but wish I could watch this card. So excited.

Me too, except for the India part. 

12/7/12 7:48 PM
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UGCTT_mojodmonky
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Loopz, any additional insight after the weigh ins?
12/8/12 5:09 AM
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burner22
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I noticed Martinez missed weight. Threw a few pennies on cruickshank cos of that. Missed weight generally means a loss.
Shogun looked decent but I still bet on Gus, I think the old Brazilian has been in too many wars and had too many injuries. I'm thinking Gus stays on the outside and picks him apart. The wildcard will be shoguns leg kicks. If he can get them firing, like against machida, it could swing his way.
Put a small wager on yves Edwards, think there's value there for 1.50.
Also bet on bj an Nate because j love them both. Not the best reason for betting but fuck it.
Pumped got the fights! Phone Post
12/8/12 8:13 AM
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Olive Garden Table For One
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Rory was like 2 penns big, but he looked nervous. Shogun looked ready and fit for him. I'm sticking with the name brand high risk high reward penn and shogun bets.

I wonder how much bendo will rehydrate. He looked mini next to Nate. That was the one shocking thing out of all of this Phone Post
12/8/12 9:00 AM
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mister_sticks
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Where are you Loopz? Phone Post
12/8/12 9:01 AM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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mister_sticks - Where are you Loopz? Phone Post
Lol... Look up! Phone Post
12/8/12 9:02 AM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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Olive Garden Table For One - Rory was like 2 penns big, but he looked nervous. Shogun looked ready and fit for him. I'm sticking with the name brand high risk high reward penn and shogun bets.

I wonder how much bendo will rehydrate. He looked mini next to Nate. That was the one shocking thing out of all of this Phone Post
I agree... Was shocked at how sucked up Bendo was.

Lets go Diaz, Penn, Swick and Lil Heathen! Phone Post
12/8/12 9:23 AM
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mister_sticks
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UGCTT_El Pescadero -
mister_sticks - Where are you Loopz? Phone Post
Lol... Look up! Phone Post
I think I've gone blind, brah... Can't find his post! Phone Post
12/8/12 9:26 AM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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mister_sticks -
UGCTT_El Pescadero -
mister_sticks - Where are you Loopz? Phone Post
Lol... Look up! Phone Post
I think I've gone blind, brah... Can't find his post! Phone Post
He's directly above you my man... Lost a SN bet, fucking Olive Garden face... Lmao Phone Post
12/8/12 9:31 AM
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mister_sticks
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UGCTT_El Pescadero -
mister_sticks -
UGCTT_El Pescadero -
mister_sticks - Where are you Loopz? Phone Post
Lol... Look up! Phone Post
I think I've gone blind, brah... Can't find his post! Phone Post
He's directly above you my man... Lost a SN bet, fucking Olive Garden face... Lmao Phone Post
Oh. Damn. Phone Post
12/8/12 9:44 AM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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mister_sticks -
UGCTT_El Pescadero -
mister_sticks -
UGCTT_El Pescadero -
mister_sticks - Where are you Loopz? Phone Post
Lol... Look up! Phone Post
I think I've gone blind, brah... Can't find his post! Phone Post
He's directly above you my man... Lost a SN bet, fucking Olive Garden face... Lmao Phone Post
Oh. Damn. Phone Post
Get over to my Charity Bets thread and call someone out ... for charitable reasons of course! Link a few pages back, Lupo and I are dueling for charities... Brcutter has a charitable sweat going... Join the team my man! Phone Post
12/8/12 1:03 PM
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BrCutter
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Okay, here we go, just clicked place bets.  Did nothing last night and traned UFC instead.  

I'm going Jorgenson straight up at -270.  He'll use some wrestling in this fight and get the W.  Scott's a really good fighter and it gets lost sometimes due to some losses against the big names.  He's not losing to Albert. 

Siver eats Phan alive.  I put $300 on this one at -275.  

I took BJ Penn straight up at +230 and a three round decision win at +500 for $50.  

Mauler straight up at -250.  Okay, I think this could be a super close fight and this is a first, but I put $25 down on a draw at +4500.  It's tossing money away, but fuck it.  If it hits, it's big.  I probably should just run some parlays, but I'm lazy and took it.  

 

I think Benson wins, but I'm not confident.  I was thinking about it a lot and Benson's wrestling is good, but not great.  It's at a place where Nate can counter it.  Nate's arms are real long and if he gets body locked, he always goes for a kimura to the point the other guy bails.  I think Nate has a really good chance and Benson's face could look like a mess after this fight.  Just going to kick back and enjoy this one.  

 

 

12/8/12 1:41 PM
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Bad Monkey
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Anyone else think Stevens is a lock over Yves at -190.

I'm thinking about betting Stevens to cover a BJ/Shogun/Diaz parlay.  While it is probably a waste of money, I still want to believe in the concept of real fighters, and 20 to 1 aint bad for a bet on these guys.

12/8/12 4:39 PM
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BrCutter
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Bad Monkey -

Anyone else think Stevens is a lock over Yves at -190.

I'm thinking about betting Stevens to cover a BJ/Shogun/Diaz parlay.  While it is probably a waste of money, I still want to believe in the concept of real fighters, and 20 to 1 aint bad for a bet on these guys.

Man, that's a tough one. Stephens is a tough bet. He's great to watch when the other guy comes forward, but he loses a lot of those stick and move fights. He's also had a lot of distractions outside of fighting..... Phone Post
12/8/12 4:49 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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Got my plays in... BJ for $100 at plus 220 and Nate plus 130 for $100!

Just need baby jay to come threw and I'm free rolling the main! Lets go BJ Phone Post
12/8/12 5:05 PM
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BrCutter
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Jorgensen was easy money. Phone Post
12/8/12 5:06 PM
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BrCutter
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Lets go Siver! Phone Post
12/8/12 5:17 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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BrCutter - Jorgensen was easy money. Phone Post
Nice.... My man only has the mains! Gd job! Who else you got, I'll sweat you in? Phone Post

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