UnderGround Forums
 

UnderGround Forums >> Lupo Locks Need to Be A UG Sticky


12/16/12 2:02 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bad Monkey
95 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/29/09
Posts: 1124

OK, I'm looking for a fight to press the action after the big score in a couple weeks. I see the Bisping/Belfort fight as the next opportunity.

Now I like Bisping, and think he is grossly underrated, but how the fuck does he get past the first round in this? If Stann wobbled him what hope does he have against Vitor.  If he makes it through the second round things could change if Vitor starts to slow down, but i don't know how he could make it that far in a stand up fight with Belfort.

Vitor is -130 right now and I would think that line is going to move down closer to the fight.  I'm thinking now may be the time to get in.

Thoughts?

12/16/12 2:11 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39678

Bisping has been tagged and staggered in almost every one of his fights. He has pretty good footwork, and usually comes in well prepared, but when he gets hit, he reacts terribly. Dennis Kang and Elvis had him all rocked and messed up. The ghost of Wand nearly ruined him on several occasions. 

Bisping cannot finish Vitor, barring a fluke injury. He doesn't have the power or subs to get that done, and he's not going to win a decision in Brazil. 

The problem here is: Zuffa wants Silva-Bisping to main event a card. The alternative is Belfort who got his face kicked off in front of the whole world. That will sell in Brazil, but nowhere else. 

5 rounds is a very long time for the Count to fight such a disciplined fight. He has no room for mistakes. Are you confident that Bisping can hang around the cage with Vitor for 25 minutes and not get chin checked?

12/16/12 2:17 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Bad Monkey
95 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/29/09
Posts: 1126

Exactly, Lupes.  And I don't see the price getting any better, do you? I'm thinking it may be time to go on Vitor now, or we may be settling for less in a few weeks when all the money comes in on Vitor.

12/16/12 2:21 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39679
Bad Monkey - 

Exactly, Lupes.  And I don't see the price getting any better, do you? I'm thinking it may be time to go on Vitor now, or we may be settling for less in a few weeks when all the money comes in on Vitor.


MMA isn't popular enough in the UK to see fucked up lines fueled by homer bets like you get in boxing. So I can't see move in that direction. Old fans are going to bet Vitor and some new ones are too after seeing him almost sub Bones. I don't think it moves much. Do some now, and keep an eye on things.

12/16/12 2:24 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39680

Full disclosure: I've won a lot of money with Bisping being underrated, and lost a lot on Vitor by being a fan. 

Bisping's way to win is by being faster and slicker standing without getting hit with anything serious. So it's like a guy with a curtain rod fighting a guy with a baseball bat

12/17/12 1:24 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
French Fries Malone
26 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 9/26/08
Posts: 4430
Belcher looks like a good bet for the next card. He should find a way to win. Phone Post
12/17/12 1:51 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
burner22
8 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/17/12
Posts: 477
Olive Garden Table For One -

Bisping has been tagged and staggered in almost every one of his fights. He has pretty good footwork, and usually comes in well prepared, but when he gets hit, he reacts terribly. Dennis Kang and Elvis had him all rocked and messed up. The ghost of Wand nearly ruined him on several occasions. 

Bisping cannot finish Vitor, barring a fluke injury. He doesn't have the power or subs to get that done, and he's not going to win a decision in Brazil. 

The problem here is: Zuffa wants Silva-Bisping to main event a card. The alternative is Belfort who got his face kicked off in front of the whole world. That will sell in Brazil, but nowhere else. 

5 rounds is a very long time for the Count to fight such a disciplined fight. He has no room for mistakes. Are you confident that Bisping can hang around the cage with Vitor for 25 minutes and not get chin checked?

I dunno man, belfort is massive for 185, I'm thinking that fight goes past the first 1.5 rounds he's gonna gas.not to mention he will be under massive pressure being the hometown hero. If bisping can somehow survive the opening blitz I think he's got a real good chance. If the line moves a bit and I can get on the pommie as a dog I'll throw some on him , and hedge with belfort first round KO. I'm thinking it's 50/50 Phone Post
12/17/12 8:17 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39686

I have a feeling that Bisping is going to fight scared. He knows he's a win away from a big payday and a title shot, and he knows that Vitor can destroy his world if he's hanging around punching range. He fought Hendo scared, and I expect to see something like that during this fight. 

There's a possibility that Bisping is confident enough in his offensive wrestling that he'll try to get Vitor down right away and tire him out there instead of jabbing and jogging with a bull charging. If Mike can't take him down, he'll go into panic mode, knowing that he has no other choice than to get involved in a fist fight with Vitor. 

Bisping has fantastic cardio, so if he can manage to drag this thing out, he'll have a good chance of outpointing Belfort, but will the judges go against the hometown hero? VItor is a real celeb in Brazil. Brazilians who know nothing about, or dislike MMA know who Vitor is. 

I have a feeling that Dana is going to be having the same "he's not following the gameplan" convo he did during Chuck-Rampage 1

12/17/12 10:10 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6356

Couldn't have said it better.  Look, Bisping is underrated (as much as I hate saying that) and he's a good kickboxer.  When he has the nerves, he does some really crazy shit (like circling the wrong way while in punching range) and he is obviously very stiff and his punches get slowed down because of it.   

Look, we have some guys that just can't seem to make that hurdle from almost top contender, to the top contender.  Let's put Martin Kampmann on that list.  They're actually capable, but they fight differently in those fights.  Kampmann.  Too stiff. Takes too many punches too early in his fights.  Hendricks throws hard.  That was a gimme for us.  

Bisping could very well, stick and move, for five.  He does have great cardio. Man's always in top shape for fights.  Again, Bobby hits on the head that this damn fight is in BRAZIL.  Even if it's tight, don't freak out if you see some 49-46 cards.  Bisping's been KO/TKO'd once, by Hendo.  That includes all his kickboxing bouts and mma bouts.  

 

12/17/12 10:14 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6357

Main Card
Dos Santos vs Velasquez
Miller vs Lauzon
Boetsch vs Philippou
Okami vs Belcher
Leben vs Vemola

Prelims
Pickett vs Wineland
Perez vs Bloodworth
Johnson vs Jury
Garcia vs McKenzie
De Fries vs Duffee
Cariaso vs Moraga

12/17/12 10:19 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39690
Belcher and JDS are free money Phone Post
12/17/12 10:19 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39691
Leben too Phone Post
12/17/12 10:12 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6360
Thoughts on M Johnson and Jury? Phone Post
12/18/12 5:37 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
burner22
8 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/17/12
Posts: 481
Good points br an loops. Food for thought.

I'm thinking lauzon as the underdog has value. Khabib nagmawhatever as well.mainly because I like the way those Russians roll. All killer no filler Phone Post
12/18/12 5:42 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
burner22
8 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/17/12
Posts: 482
Missed the boat on costa too, he opened as a solid underdog. I meant to get on but never did. Now he's the solid favorite. Bleh. Phone Post
12/18/12 8:31 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39695

I got in on J-Lau. My night will be fucking ruined if J-Lau and Junior both lose. 

Boestch and Costa is a nearly impossible fight to predict for me, so I'm leaving it alone and hoping that Costa wins, he's a nice guy. 

12/18/12 8:36 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39696
BrCutter -  Thoughts on M Johnson and Jury? Phone Post

I'm staying away. People keep talking about Johnson's improvement. I'll make up my mind on him after this fight.

12/18/12 8:37 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
NorthFromHere
309 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/4/07
Posts: 14077
MMAViking.com
Olive Garden Table For One - 

I got in on J-Lau. My night will be fucking ruined if J-Lau and Junior both lose. 

Boestch and Costa is a nearly impossible fight to predict for me, so I'm leaving it alone and hoping that Costa wins, he's a nice guy. 


Okami was going to town on Boetsch before Boetsch came back with the barbarian assault and caught Okami with those upper cuts. Costa is really hard to take down or keep on the ground. I think this fight will stay on the feet where Costa's crisper boxing will win him the decision.
12/18/12 8:47 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BaraoKix
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 3/20/12
Posts: 7304


Belcher = 10units
12/18/12 8:56 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Olive Garden Table For One
67 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/12/05
Posts: 39699
NorthFromHere - 
Olive Garden Table For One - 

I got in on J-Lau. My night will be fucking ruined if J-Lau and Junior both lose. 

Boestch and Costa is a nearly impossible fight to predict for me, so I'm leaving it alone and hoping that Costa wins, he's a nice guy. 


Okami was going to town on Boetsch before Boetsch came back with the barbarian assault and caught Okami with those upper cuts. Costa is really hard to take down or keep on the ground. I think this fight will stay on the feet where Costa's crisper boxing will win him the decision.

Costa is awesome, but he's local, so I'll never be able to bet him in an objective way. I'll think of him from 10 years ago as a good kickboxer with some BJJ, when he's obviously 10X that now. Tim is a gorilla at 185, but Costa is no pushover. I just have difficulty betting locals. The IFL was sometimes disasterous for me.

12/18/12 9:29 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6369
Olive Garden Table For One - 
BrCutter -  Thoughts on M Johnson and Jury? Phone Post

I'm staying away. People keep talking about Johnson's improvement. I'll make up my mind on him after this fight.


Thanks Lups.  I'm one of those people and I thought I was caught up in it.  I needed somebody to tell me that.  Too many solid ones on this card.  

12/18/12 11:57 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6371
burner22 -  Missed the boat on costa too, he opened as a solid underdog. I meant to get on but never did. Now he's the solid favorite. Bleh. Phone Post

Man, I say if you like that fight, take it.  I think Costa is a fucking animal and in IMO one of the top 3 camps in the Country.  If you do what Serra and Longo tell you what to do, you will win.  Costa listens. Weidman listens.  To the point on Lups, you can't keep Costa down.  Costa also doesn't give a shit what style of standup you have, he's throwing fuckin heat down the pipe and he will land.  I think Tim is a great guy and what a ton of heart, but man, that's got to run out here on someone.  Yushin was just absolutely destroying him.  The Lombard fight was one where Lombard hardly did shit.  I just have no reason to believe yet that this streak of his is substantitive.  He could prove me wrong, but if I'm laying money on this, I'd take Costa in 3 rounds.  They will have a strategy for him and he will impose.  That's what I'm seeing.  BTW, Matt Hume is obviously one of the best there is too, so no insult to him and the camp up there in Washington.  

IMO, this was a pick'em fight from the start and the linesmakers are actually paying attention on this one. 

12/18/12 12:01 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6372

I CANNOT believe that JDS is still only about -175 and Cain even.  If I'm a bookie, I tell everyone I take every Cain bet you want to give me.  He came back and beat up Bigfoot who has been in that scenario several times before against quicker guys.  Hell, Mike Pyle at lhw nearly finished him in the first round.  He as ONE fight back at heavyweight and his commercials are on every 5 minutes and he's got a title shot after being finished easily in like 2 minutes.  Man, the ufc pushes him hard.  Again, I don't have anything against him, but shit, that's the status quo for title shots in the ufc now.   I'm mclovin the odds. I'd bet it at like -400 or -500.  It's free money.  It's a FREE massage chair. lol

12/18/12 12:05 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6373

I'm going to run through some of these other fights and maybe lay 25-50 on a few of them to make the night just that much better.   

12/19/12 8:58 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
BrCutter
191 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 8/26/08
Posts: 6379

Mornin' LLSBAST brethren.

 


Reply Post

You must log in to post a reply. Click here to login.