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12/29/12 10:18 AM
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BrCutter
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Olive Garden Table For One - 

I actually have to bet Melvin b/c my rule is: against a guy without subs, Melvin wins. I think he's a batter Varner everywhere Varner is good.


This.  Melvin has wresting and Melvin has striking.  Varner doesn't throw headkicks.  Varner is going to have to basically beat Melvin at what Melvin does and that's not fuggin easy.  I do think Varner is a brand new fighter since he went to join Bendo at the Lab.  He's humbled, fights his ass offi, and so far, keeps his mouth shut.  I think it could be interesting, but sticking with history and facts: take Guillard.  

Not done:  Varner's striking has improved.  He really hurt J-Lau pretty good on multiple occasions.  He didn't finish, but again, he's Varner 2.0 now.  Varner hurts Guillard: Varner pounces on him and takes his back.....

I've watched and rewatched Melvin fights and hey I'm no stranger to taking big shots, but he doesn't go to defense 101 when he's wobbled.  Like, it's very basic (and again, I'm no pro fighter or not even any good).  Melvin gets his back taken and he does what he thinks he's been told and that is to 2 on 1 an arm and move it over his head and get on top. He ignores handfighting of the choking arm!!! (I do have 7 years of jits).  

ps. I've been trying my nuts off in mma for the last 8 months and will make my return in March.  I took two quick fights after 6-7 years of just doing jits and they both ended bad.  Most of the time, I just come to the UG to come to this thread.  

12/29/12 10:18 AM
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BrCutter
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Edited: 12/29/12 10:21 AM
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I'm going to go with Jr inside the distance too when it comes out Bad Monkey.  I think that's a solid bet if you believe Junior is going to win this.  

I'm also going to keep my faith in Michael Johnson, though on a limited basis, like $50.  Lups is right, it's a lot of hype train so far that may be legit, but we still need more fights to see.  Honestly, Jury is intriguing, but let's see what he has to do in round 2 and 3.  Johnson is a very smart fighter.  No matter what, he's surviving into 2 and 3. 

12/29/12 10:25 AM
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BrCutter
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NorthFromHere - I bet on Belcher at +110 earlier and now laid some money on Varner vs Guillard u2.5 rounds at -170.

I'm online right now with Bovado.  I'm going to put $100 on Belcher.  I actually think he should win this convincingly, but Okami is a much better fighter than his record shows.  Anderson is Anderson.  He beat the shit out of Boetch of 2.5 rounds, gassed, and Boetch threw a kitchen sink at him.  He's still a very solid fighter.  He's still got solid solid takedowns and gnp.  Belcher looked phenomenal at weigh in's.  

12/29/12 10:25 AM
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BrCutter
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Edited: 12/29/12 10:25 AM
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As a rule of thumb, whoever is  regular here that is in the negative needs our vote ups to not get frozen.  So, when we pop on, try to hit up the guys that are blank or else we could lose some of our gambling brethren.  

12/29/12 11:00 AM
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Bad Monkey
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I need all my picks to come through tonight. I've got over half of my stack on the line, which is big for me. I usually only bet 20% or so on a card. The good news is that it looks like all my picks are lupes locks approved except for one, so no worries. 

Thanks to all for the input, now it's time to get paid, gentlemen. 

12/29/12 11:50 AM
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Olive Garden Table For One
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Cain at 240 with love handles is a comfort to me. He's 9 pounds less than the mess he was the last time, but he's going to need every bit of quickness and fitness if he expects to have a prayer in this thing. The fight starts standing, and the disparity between their striking quickness will once again be shocking. I would have been worried if Cain came in 228. I think he's an equally great athlete, but 240 on a 6 foot frame says that he didn't take his diet or conditioning seriously. When your entire job is to train and prepare for a fight and you don't look prepared: you aren't. I know it's not a bodybuilding contest, but his physical shape is telling.

12/29/12 11:53 AM
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Diaz50-43Failure
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Hmm Phone Post
12/29/12 12:08 PM
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morse
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Lupo voted up. I love this thread.

12/29/12 12:46 PM
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BrCutter
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pj_benn -  You nervous or something br?

I took some cracks yesterday so hopefully I can turn it around on this card Phone Post

I was a little bit on JDS, but after weigh in's, i felt pretty damn good.  I basically have been on a solid run for  nearly two months and I'm taking about 75% of the winnings and going with JDS straight up.  Then, I got way overconfident to the "jinx point".  I settled back down.  Then I watched Carwin and JDS and saw a takedown and I'm ready to second guess myself anywhere on this fight.  

That said, weigh in's happened and Cain didn't look half as in shape as JDS does.  It's actually even worse that he doesn't look in shape and he's not really over his normal weight.  So, he doesn't even have the extra 10 lbs of umph to press against JDS.  i've never had this much riding on a fight or an entire card, so I'm shaky!  I couldn't be more confident though in JDS for this fight.  I don't see a way for him to win.  I can't see where he even out-cardio's him looking like he did.  

My massage chair is about 7k (not including taxes) and into JDS for about $8.500.  If I lose, it just makes the last two months a wash, but I really want my massage chair!   

12/29/12 12:48 PM
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BrCutter
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Olive Garden Table For One - 

Cain at 240 with love handles is a comfort to me. He's 9 pounds less than the mess he was the last time, but he's going to need every bit of quickness and fitness if he expects to have a prayer in this thing. The fight starts standing, and the disparity between their striking quickness will once again be shocking. I would have been worried if Cain came in 228. I think he's an equally great athlete, but 240 on a 6 foot frame says that he didn't take his diet or conditioning seriously. When your entire job is to train and prepare for a fight and you don't look prepared: you aren't. I know it's not a bodybuilding contest, but his physical shape is telling.


Great point.  228 or hell even 225 would have made me concerned.  I'd think shit, he's going to bounce around and just move and clinch, and get out, and shoot, and just be so active, that he win it.  Negative.  

12/29/12 1:28 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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BrCutter -
pj_benn -  You nervous or something br?

I took some cracks yesterday so hopefully I can turn it around on this card Phone Post

I was a little bit on JDS, but after weigh in's, i felt pretty damn good.  I basically have been on a solid run for  nearly two months and I'm taking about 75% of the winnings and going with JDS straight up.  Then, I got way overconfident to the "jinx point".  I settled back down.  Then I watched Carwin and JDS and saw a takedown and I'm ready to second guess myself anywhere on this fight.  

That said, weigh in's happened and Cain didn't look half as in shape as JDS does.  It's actually even worse that he doesn't look in shape and he's not really over his normal weight.  So, he doesn't even have the extra 10 lbs of umph to press against JDS.  i've never had this much riding on a fight or an entire card, so I'm shaky!  I couldn't be more confident though in JDS for this fight.  I don't see a way for him to win.  I can't see where he even out-cardio's him looking like he did.  

My massage chair is about 7k (not including taxes) and into JDS for about $8.500.  If I lose, it just makes the last two months a wash, but I really want my massage chair!   

They are wonderful... Will be sweating in my penny's and your Dimes tonight... Lets go JDS Phone Post
12/29/12 6:03 PM
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jjj2121
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Two Saints

Boetsch

Wineland

Moraga

Perez/Duffman/Holloway parlay.

12/29/12 6:34 PM
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mister_sticks
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I parlayed JDS and Belcher. Also, Leben and Philippou.

Good luck to all! Phone Post
12/29/12 6:41 PM
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nubp
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I thought I'd be clever and wait for the weigh ins before betting Melvin, but between him coming in emotional and so worked up, now I'm not so sure. Melvin is often his worst own enemy and I'm kind of scared his excitement is going to lead to more brain farts in the cage
12/29/12 6:42 PM
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Eunuchorn
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Was about to drop a shitload of money on Duffee but I was too late and my site took it off. FUCK!

I'm thinking about a Leben, Miller and Boestch parlay.

Staying the fuck away from Okami/Belcher and the main event.

Put a little on Melvin at -125 aswell.

12/29/12 8:28 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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UGCTT_El Pescadero - JDS is a triple black diamond love lock. Gunna end just like the 1st fight!

$400 on JDS at -200
$100 on Belcher at -110
$100 on Jury at plus 190 Phone Post
1 in... Weeeeee Phone Post
12/29/12 8:31 PM
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Eunuchorn
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Just put £5 on either Cain or Junior to win by sub for £65

Could happen! Worth a shot.
12/29/12 8:32 PM
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BrCutter
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El Pesc did you lay anything on Jury?  You liked that bet this week.  Nice call, that was a fucking domination.  I never saw that coming.  From that first timed double I said, oh shit!  

12/29/12 8:39 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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BrCutter -

El Pesc did you lay anything on Jury?  You liked that bet this week.  Nice call, that was a fucking domination.  I never saw that coming.  From that first timed double I said, oh shit!  

Ya had 100$ on him... Free rolling on my Belcher Lay.

Kids a stud! Phone Post
12/29/12 8:39 PM
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BrCutter
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Holy shit at the player props for JDS/Cain.  Cain's moved to about -225.  Win inside trhe distance is -150, not even worth it, not much to gain.  

Fuckin over/under rounds is 1.5!  lol.  I saw JDS on the tel earlier in the locker room.  He looks in Terminator mode.  

T-Minus about 3 hours left on these fuggin Samsung Galaxy Cain commercials.   Just stating fact: they stopped Cain advertising after he lost to JDS, then started running them like madmen after he beat Bigfoot.  I've seen him slamming a guy in a ring 4,583 times since he beat Bigfoot.  I can't take it and I don't even mind Cain. 

 

12/29/12 8:40 PM
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BrCutter
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Edited: 12/29/12 8:40 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero - 
BrCutter -

El Pesc did you lay anything on Jury?  You liked that bet this week.  Nice call, that was a fucking domination.  I never saw that coming.  From that first timed double I said, oh shit!  

Ya had 100$ on him... Free rolling on my Belcher Lay.

Kids a stud! Phone Post

 

He's legit man.  I had no idea.  Johnson's solid and had some real good wins this year and that was a one-sided beatdown.  He literally didn't finish because Johnson spent so much time defending and not opening up to try to come back.  A loss is a loss, whether it's a decision of a 5 second knockout. 

 

Congrats!  Nice call. 

 

12/29/12 8:41 PM
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BrCutter
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I'm on with $100 with Varner.  I don't care.  Guillard might knock him out, but I can't stand Guillard.  This is purely emotional. 

12/29/12 8:57 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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BrCutter -
UGCTT_El Pescadero - 
BrCutter -

El Pesc did you lay anything on Jury?  You liked that bet this week.  Nice call, that was a fucking domination.  I never saw that coming.  From that first timed double I said, oh shit!  

Ya had 100$ on him... Free rolling on my Belcher Lay.

Kids a stud! Phone Post

 

He's legit man.  I had no idea.  Johnson's solid and had some real good wins this year and that was a one-sided beatdown.  He literally didn't finish because Johnson spent so much time defending and not opening up to try to come back.  A loss is a loss, whether it's a decision of a 5 second knockout. 

 

Congrats!  Nice call. 

 

Thanks... Lets get JDS in and then we can really Celebrate! Phone Post
12/29/12 9:03 PM
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UGCTT_El Pescadero
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BrCutter -

I'm on with $100 with Varner.  I don't care.  Guillard might knock him out, but I can't stand Guillard.  This is purely emotional. 

Nice lay Phone Post
12/29/12 9:06 PM
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burner22
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BrCutter -

I'm on with $100 with Varner.  I don't care.  Guillard might knock him out, but I can't stand Guillard.  This is purely emotional. 

Nice bro Phone Post

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