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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> Lucky Seat at Poker Table?


12/9/11 10:17 PM
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GrapplerHK
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Hows this sound? A table opens up and Im at the new table.....I play for 2 hrs (1-2 NL).....win $100, im hungry, its dinner time, I go eat my free buffet

When I come back to the same table 2 hrs later, the guy who was to my immediate left had moved to my seat, ie the seat i WAS in, and he had gone from $300, to $1500 in the 2 hrs i was gone

Everyone was saying the dude was hitting EVERYTHING

Would you be pissed? Like dam IF i had stayed in that seat all the $$$, or at least some of it, assuming im a decent player, would have been mine.....did I miss out on my lucky day or what?

I usually dont believe in lucky seats, or bad luck seats, it all evens out in the end
12/16/11 10:37 AM
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Kamikaze Emu
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I wouldn't be pissed because the fall of the card is random, and in no way linked to any given seat.

If you're making a case that the same would have hit if you were sitting there I don't think that is accurate either as your betting actions, etc would have changed the way each hand unfolded.
12/18/11 3:40 AM
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Cheeseburger Eddie
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There is no lucky seat, however, the players around a certain seat might make it "lucky."

I.E. Nits to your left and fish to your right.
12/18/11 8:39 PM
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Kamikaze Emu
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Cheeseburger Eddie - There is no lucky seat, however, the players around a certain seat might make it "lucky."

I.E. Nits to your left and fish to your right.


Good point.
12/19/11 5:03 PM
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GrapplerHK
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"I wouldn't be pissed because the fall of the card is random, and in no way linked to any given seat"

This is true, and its why I dont get upset.

Those cards only fell to the seat I left BECAUSE i had left, had I been there things wouldve been completely different.

But the guy who took my seat wss thrilled I left and that he moved into it
12/21/11 4:55 AM
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VectorWega
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If you get up from a seat and your replacement gets Aces 3 times in 10 minutes, this is only relevant if there are still the exact same # of people at the table for each of the hands (and thus the button is in the exact same location as it would have been had you not left).  If someone doesn't replace you immediately, this would change the cards dealt in a hand which would subsequently alter shuffling and future deals ensuring that the same cards you would have received are not received by your replacement.
12/22/11 5:11 AM
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SwedishShooto
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Edited: 12/22/11 5:15 AM
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That kind of thinking will drive you crazy. Some pots he might've played differently than you even if you had the same cards (He raises J4 off cause he likes to gamble, you fold it) and win with it, etc, etc. Plus the cards don't fall the same way anyway.

You'll just go mad thinking about shit like that, there is no lucky seat. If several people at the table are dumb enoug hto perceive that it is lucky, they may actually play differently and more passively against the 'lucky seat'. Ie, they fold against his semi bluffs because in their mind "even if he's bluffing he's gonna make his flush anyway because he's getting so lucky over there". This actually really happens, and it adds on some further money going to the "lucky seat". The whole thing kind of perpetuates itself and it seems like he's getting luckier than others and the guy who sat there before him was also catching good cards. It's just short term variance, all random, all useless math... just don't think about it and don't let it fuck with your poker game.
12/22/11 5:18 AM
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SwedishShooto
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VectorWega - If you get up from a seat and your replacement gets Aces 3 times in 10 minutes, this is only relevant if there are still the exact same # of people at the table for each of the hands (and thus the button is in the exact same location as it would have been had you not left).  If someone doesn't replace you immediately, this would change the cards dealt in a hand which would subsequently alter shuffling and future deals ensuring that the same cards you would have received are not received by your replacement.


It still doesn't ensure it would all happen the same way. One player might take longer than the other in a decision even though they had the same cards in the same seat, in essence changing events, butterfly effect style! It really only counts for the first hand if nothing changes.
12/23/11 2:09 AM
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PR
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good players never go on the hot streaks that fish do simply because good players fold much more often.
12/23/11 9:18 AM
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Kamikaze Emu
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PR, good players for sure go on heaters.

It is a certainty that over a small sample hands will deviate from the mean from time to time. This will be your boom or doom switch, and you'll heat or cool respectively.

Folding more (I'm assuming you're thinking pre-flop) only means you're going to play a tighter range of hands during your heater, but you'll still play more hands then you would otherwise. If you're getting AA twice as often as you should you won't be folding them to maintain a certain VPIP.

Over my last 1,000 hands my VPIP has been around 12% to 14% and I'm pulling in 30bb/100 in that stretch. While I'm not a good player, my VPIP is low aka I'm folding a lot, but I still feel like I'm on a heater as I'm getting nice flops and not too often am I getting out flopped. Don't be too impressed as I'm talking 2NL.
12/23/11 9:54 AM
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SwedishShooto
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Yea fish tend to suck out more just because good players don't put themselves in the bad spot to have to suck out, but good players can definitely still run good and go on hot streaks imo
12/23/11 12:05 PM
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PR
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Of course good players can go on hot streaks, I'm just saying tighter, good players don't go on the hot streaks that fish who play more hands and go too far with them do.
4/28/12 5:36 AM
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iclimb513
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Don't forget how fish can continually price people into hand with low bet, while more serious ones would have gotten them out of a hand.

I've been playing at the Venetian a lot lately and have seen the following scenario play out numerous times.

At $2/5 someone under the gun makes it $30. This causes a domino effect of 5 other people calling, until it gets to the button who raises to $50. Every one else calls that too and suddenly there is $300 in the pot.

The flop comes and it gets a cautious bet of $100, which gets called (if not raised) around thus making the pot now $900+ to $1200

Then comes the card that will make or break hands. The turn. Someone with a *real* hand like AA or KK or AK will fire off $400 and get called by two people who went from seeming rags preflop to two pair, straight and / or flush draws. With the people still playing having $1000 behind, two people will call an the pot is now $1100+.

None of the 3 people are going away very quiety now, considering how often the turn changes things. You can usually bank on another $600 to $2500 going in on the river all told before the dust clears and the cries of "how could you call those bet(s)??!" from the defeated, whimpering voice of the original raiser who couldnt get away from AA and lost everything to "the morons" who stayed in with 8 / 10 offsuit.

I see it every day, and have adjusted my play as need to both avoid and take advantage of the situations.

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