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7/7/12 9:37 AM
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chokeyou
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It may seem early to you but i've been studying for months.

My hobby is gaming on sports. i've devoted a great deal of my free time to this hobby for the better part of 15 years, I trained under a pro gamer, blah blah, i went into greater detail in last years thread. Go there is you want more.

In last years thread i had some impressive successes and few complete misses. I picked Bama to win the Natty (obviously i was right) but thought LSU was over rated to name a few of my prognostications.

Pura Vida came on the thread and added a lot. I hope he shows up this year as well.

Aside from having a little time to write i decided to start this today because i feel pretty god about my aggregate research. Obviously a lot will change between now and Sept 1st, but lets get this going.

Ask anything about anyone. If i don't have an answer i will happily admit it.
7/7/12 9:40 AM
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chokeyou
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Specifically i'm doing research for early bettering, but i have lots of opinions in general.

I feel terrible for Georgia. I thought Georgia and South Carolina were the class of the SEC and i'm bummed they've had such bad luck.

BTW, i live in LA and my fav team is the Cal Golden Bears.
7/7/12 10:24 AM
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chokeyou
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1194430-preseason-college-football-rankings-2012-top-contenders-for-national-title


7/7/12 1:07 PM
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chokeyou
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 A little old, but fun


PROJECTED PRESEASON AP TOP 24

For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and this year with its overwhelming popularity I have decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is NOT MY preseason Top 24 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 24 to come out at the start of the season. I have also strategically projected 24 teams and not 25 because I feel confident that all 24 of these teams will be in the preseason Top 25 while leaving room for a wildcard team that could slip into the Top 25 due to injuries, suspensions, transfers or preseason magazine projections. 

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the off-season. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly six months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from now to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. If you want to see how I have performed with my Top 10 projections refer to my January 30 Blog. Also it should be noted that a couple of teams have been moved up or down to reflect what has happened since that last blog, which includes national signing day.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 24 and keep in mind again these are NOT MY preseason Top 24 teams!

#24 Florida-The Gators have had two sub-par seasons finishing 8-5 and 7-6 in 2010-11 but 2nd-year HC Will Muschamp looks to have the Gators on the upswing. They return 10 starters from a defense that allowed just 299.5 ypg last year and one of their keys to their season will be if they can get better QB production from Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel.

 
7/7/12 1:08 PM
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chokeyou
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 #23 Oklahoma St-Mike Gundy has done a tremendous job here and while they lose their starting QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon, Gundy was in a similar position two years ago losing two of his “triplets” in QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant and the Cowboys would respond with an 11-2 season. Expect good production from the QB position no matter who lines up behind center as Gundy and the Pokes are becoming one of the more consistent programs in the country.

#22 Texas-Similar to Florida, the Longhorns have had two sub-par seasons but looked poised to rebound in 2012. They again have one of the top defenses in the country, signed a great incoming frosh class including another PS#1 RB in Johnathan Gray and the big question remains whether or not they can get better QB play from David Ash or Case McCoy.

#21 Boise St-The Broncos lose their 4-year starting QB in Kellen Moore who won an NCAA-record 50 games and they also lose RB Doug Martin who could go as high as the 2nd round in the upcoming 2012 NFL Draft.  However, HC Chris Petersen is 73-6 in his first six seasons and the Broncos, no matter who fills in at the skill positions, will be the media’s favorite to win the MW.

#20 Stanford-Yes, the Cardinal lose all-everything QB Andrew Luck and two possible 1st Round DC on their OL. However, the Cardinal signed arguably their best recruiting class in school history which includes RB Barry Sanders, Jr and three of my Top 10 PS#OL. While they will be hard pressed to duplicate the 23 wins they have had in the last two seasons, 2nd-year HC David Shaw seems to have this program in reload rather than rebuild mode.

#19 Nebraska-You have to expect that Nebraska will be more familiar with their conference opponents this year. The Cornhuskers have lost four games in each of Bo Pelini’s first four seasons but their 2nd-year in the Big Ten will see them return both QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead along with seven starters on defense.

#18 Ohio State-While the Buckeyes will not be eligible to go to a bowl game or be ranked in the coaches’ poll like USC the past two years, they still have the opportunity to be highly ranked in the AP poll this year. The Buckeyes signed a Top 10 class loaded with DL and QB Braxton Miller, who led the Buckeyes in rushing last year as a true frosh is a perfect fit for Meyer’s spread offense.

#17 Virginia Tech-Last year the Hokies were my #1 Surprise Team and finished the regular season 11-1 and in the Top 5. While they lose RB David Wilson early to the NFL Draft this year, QB Logan Thomas returns for his second year as the starting QB. VT has won at least 10 games eight straight seasons and the Hokies should once again be the preseason favorites in the ACC Coastal Division.

#16 Wisconsin-The Badgers lose their dynamic QB in Russell Wilson but keep in mind they also went to the Rose Bowl the prior year with Scott Tolzien at QB. This year Heisman candidate RB Montee Ball returns after scoring 39 TD’s in 2011 and Wisconsin has won at least nine games in 5 of Bielema’s first six seasons as HC.

 
7/7/12 1:09 PM
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chokeyou
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FLA has lots of talent..Just like the Zook years. They'll be a fav of mine to bet against this year as they will underachieve> They just dont have a good coaching.
7/7/12 1:12 PM
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chokeyou
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OK ST is the opposite of FLA. Great coaching, but they lost a lot. I made a lot of money on them last year and they'll push the ball up and down the field this year, but an improved defense and NEW QB will slow the offense
7/7/12 1:18 PM
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chokeyou
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Texas suffers from FLAism as well. People confuse Mack Brown's ability to recruit with the ability to coach.

He can recruit...

He can't coach.

A complete lack of offense player development and the rise of programs life TCU, SMU, Baylor and Texas A&M are going to further exacerbate his short comings.

Better talent and a light schedule will earn him 8 or 9 wins.
7/7/12 1:25 PM
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Jozy
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Gamecock fan here and its gonna be a good year. Should win the sec east, and have an all around good season. Connor shaws arm is getting better and better so the versatility between the run and throwing game should be aarge factor to boost them up. Phone Post
7/7/12 1:36 PM
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chokeyou
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[quote]Jozy - Gamecock fan here and its gonna be a good year. Should win the sec east, and have an all around good season. Connor shaws arm is getting better and better so the versatility between the run and throwing game should be aarge factor to boost them up. Phone Post[/quote] 

You guys are a money team this year. I like Connor a lot. Garcia was a disruptive influence. But that D is insane. Clowney is the real deal. People attacked him saying he wasn't able to get the defense. Basically saying he is stupid or Lazy. No matter, i think he had 8 sacks "lost" in the D. I love Lattimore as well. Having three (if memory serves) starting O lineman back is massive. I thought you and Georgia were neck and neck until the wheels came off Geo. 

7/7/12 1:39 PM
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cthlcschlgrl
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Go Huskers! Phone Post
7/7/12 1:43 PM
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itskrisdude
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All those freshamn Stanford signed will not be playing this year. They lost every single signifigant weapon on offense. Team is going to struggle.
7/7/12 1:49 PM
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itskrisdude
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Nevermind, Taylor is still there. They'll go 8-4 regardless.
7/7/12 1:59 PM
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MushroomHead
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Which Big 12 team, on paper, is looking to have the strongest season, and why? Phone Post
7/7/12 1:59 PM
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DaveFu
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I predict my beloved Hawaii Warriors will not win the national title this year.
7/7/12 2:12 PM
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scrawny white boy
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MushroomHead - Which Big 12 team, on paper, is looking to have the strongest season, and why? <img src="/images/phone/droid.png" alt="Phone Post" border="0" style="vertical-align:middle;"/>

Oklahoma because Landry Jones is back.
7/7/12 2:37 PM
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Lehman
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cthlcschlgrl - Go Huskers! Phone Post
. Phone Post
7/7/12 2:39 PM
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Animal Chin
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Hopefully knile Davis can stay healthy and take some of the load off of Wilson. Running game was fucking pitiful last year.
7/7/12 3:28 PM
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The Cannibal
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GO NAVY!
7/7/12 8:29 PM
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Jozy
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chokeyou - 
Jozy - Gamecock fan here and its gonna be a good year. Should win the sec east, and have an all around good season. Connor shaws arm is getting better and better so the versatility between the run and throwing game should be aarge factor to boost them up. <img src="/images/phone/droid.png" alt="Phone Post" border="0" style="vertical-align:middle;" />
 

<p class="p1">You guys are a money team this year. I like Connor a lot. Garcia was a disruptive influence. But that D is insane. Clowney is the real deal. People attacked him saying he wasn't able to get the defense. Basically saying he is stupid or Lazy. No matter, i think he had 8 sacks "lost" in the D. I love Lattimore as well. Having three (if memory serves) starting O lineman back is massive. I thought you and Georgia were neck and neck until the wheels came off Geo. </p>


Healthy Lattimore, Clowney going strong for every quarterback, and Shaw developing his vision should lead to a good year. I was worried about Georgia but with their biggest weapon in Crowell not being there anymore it should be a strong showing.
7/7/12 8:44 PM
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B Sharps
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ECU alumni here. It will be another season pulling for a mid-major and hoping we break .500. This will be the make-or-break year for Coach Ruff.
7/8/12 5:16 AM
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Byrd
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WVU
7/8/12 11:29 AM
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chokeyou
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cthlcschlgrl - Go Huskers! Phone Post


after a year of transition, i like the Huskers this year. BUt the lack offensive identity is going to be a problem again
7/8/12 11:33 AM
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chokeyou
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itskrisdude - All those freshamn Stanford signed will not be playing this year. They lost every single signifigant weapon on offense. Team is going to struggle.


yes and no. Nottingham is going to be solid at the very least. As much as it pains me, they are going to be tough again.

Not Natty tough, but 9 wins tough
7/8/12 11:36 AM
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chokeyou
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scrawny white boy - 
MushroomHead - Which Big 12 team, on paper, is looking to have the strongest season, and why? Phone Post

Oklahoma because Landry Jones is back.


yeah, i feel like OK is just an underachieving team. Every yeat i watch people predict their being in the natty, every year i laugh. Don't get me wrong, i bet home first half against them every week and they have better players than most teams, but their something missing.

They beat Texas but lose someplace they shouldn't. Landry gets hurt. repeat..

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