UnderGround Forums
 

UnderGround Forums >> Grading the Prospects: Allan Nascimento


7/20/12 9:24 AM
Ignore | Vote Down | Vote Up
Underground Blog
1107 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 12/3/08
Posts: 9565
MixedMartialArts.com
 

This is the second in an UnderGround Blog series by Daniel Caton, on grading the prospects in MMA, similar to the way the NFL grades prospects, based on strength of competition, size, speed, agility, and martial arts background, among other factors.

Caton's previous piece was on James TeHuna. Today he analyses Allan Nascimento.

Strength of Competition.
A    UFC would grant the prospect 30 base points to his/her grade (must have at least 4 UFC Fights)
B    Strikeforce would grant 20
C    Bellator (who have done an astounding job at signing young talent) would give 16
D    TitanFC/OneFC/MFC/KOTC/LEGACY would grant 12
F    Anything below that would garner a local show base of 5

Then size would add 10-40 points to the score.  Size weighs more in the score value and potential than other categories, as size is for example a main attribute that separates the Jon Jones from the rest of the world. 

Then we’re going to look at skills.

This is where the previous two point scales will build into a number.  We’ll grade the prospect based on the following and give them a range of 1-7 based in each category. Points are deducted where there are holes from 1-7.

Striking: As each striker has different bases this will follow the basic forms of MMA.
Offense-    Boxing, Clinch Work, Kickboxing, Footwork
Defense-    Positioning, Chin, Composure, Cardio (gas tank)

Grappling: Likewise broken down into different branches
Top Game-    Takedowns, Top Control, Transition Ability, Submission Ability
Bottom Game-  Takedown defense, guard work, escape ability, submission defense

The final points are for age.  After running numbers on a host of current top tier UFC fighters, a system has been developed to project growth and decline. Age is SO essential as it relates to time to grow.  There are the Hedo’s of the world that defy such logic, thanks in part to TRT, but they are the exception that proves the rule. 

18-21              15   A  4.5
22-23              14   A  4.0
24-25              10   B  3.0
26-28              5     C  2.0
29-30              0     D 1.0
31-32              -2    F    0
33-36              -4    F   -1
37+                -10   F    -2.5

Our next prospect is...
Allan Nascimento 
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 135-125; was signed as a flyweight. 
Range: 70”
Age:  20                                    14  A  4.5
Record:  6-0  (all finishes)
Strength of Competition:  1 Legacy Fight                        12  D  1.0                                            
Size: Nascimento staying at bantam or flyweight seems farfetched - he’s an extremely big bantamweight and mammoth flyweight. Bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz towers over most of his competition at a significantly smaller 5’8” with a 68" reach. Combine that with the fact he’s very athletic and mobile, and the future loosk bright.

Pros:  Nascimento is considered the next big thing from Chute Boxe. Already being tagged “lil Anderson” this 20 year old has years to develop his already adaptive game. Nascimento has professional kickboxing experience, yet uses his muay thai to strengthen his submission game.  It reminds of how Chris Lytle would bang to lull people into his deep submission arsenal. 

In one of his fights Nascimento Thai clinches his opponent, lands a knee, and then jumps him into a flying triangle for the finish! He has very good submission ability with an active guard, continuing to attack while on his back, looking for knee bars and chokes. The Brazilian is quick, and moves very well to set up jabs and effective leg kicks.  He has dangerous striking already, and can still improve further. Chute Box is stamped all over him, with the aggressive and straight forward attack mode characteristic of the team. Comparison to Aldo and Anderson at the same stage in their career is not out of the question.

Cons: Allan does show some holes. In his last fight he was fighting a great prospect in his own regard in Terry Acker.  The Brazilian's wrestling will need to develop a lot more, as his takedowns are currently limited to throws from the clinch or pulling guard. Allan’s pure focus on the mat is BJJ. At some point n NCAA wrestler is going to challenge him, and exploit that hole. Acker clearly won the first, second, and most of the third round until Nascimento’s BJJ saved him. At this point Acker is the only quality opponent he has faced.  So there is a concern how Allan would handle a step up in competition.  

As Acker took it to him so thoroughly mainly due to the Chute Box style of pushing forward.  He would push forward, and then get clinched, and dumped on his head or back.  Despite his kickboxing experience he doesn’t work his range as well as he could.  The aggressive straight forward mode can be limiting, as he is prone to step into jabs and hooks.  His conditioning seems to be okay, but is “okay” good enough for a five round fight in that division?

Overall:  Nascimento has a very bright future ahead of him.  The holes in his game are correctable with time and experience. He kept his composure in a losing fight and found a way to win.  He possesses very good muay thai and clinch ability.  He is able to combine that with a slick submission game. This prospect can grow exponentially with the time left in the bucket. While his wrestling is lacking, a lot, with good coaching, he can develop cage control.  As for his timing and position it will get better with experience. At just 20 years old he is still a kid, and has over a decade of development left. 

Score: 
SOC: 12 
Size: 35
Age: 15 
Skill Set Scores:
Striking-- boxing 2 clinch work 3 kickboxing 3 footwork 2  ----   Positioning 2 chin 2 composure 3 cardio 3
Grappling- Takedowns 0  Top Control 2   Transition 3 Submission 5----TD defense -3 Guard Work 4 Escape ability -5 Sub D 0 
Total Grade—88 B

The grade would be far higher, but he hasn’t fought much real tough competition yet. What we see is a phenomenal striker and submission expert, who has the size and athleticism of the next generation of MMA fighters. And he has all the time in the world to start working on his holes.

Fighters in MMA are too often afraid to use their Guard.  In the minds of many, being in Guard means you are losing the fight. A lot of judges do see it that way, but if you can make your guard a weapon, like Aoki, why not have the option in your armory? Nascimento does, and he can finish with it.

Potential outlook in such a deep division is difficult to predict, especially when it is unclear how long he can stay at 135. It is just a matter of time before he’s in the UFC. Expect him to be a top 5 bantamweight…at least.

The UFC should give him two to three more fights, andthen take a hard look. If groomed correctly, he can be one of those Rory MacDonald “Do Everything Great” fighters. So keep a look out for him, and when it happens, and tell everyone… Daniel got it right!

To those of you interested in submitting prospects just reply below. I ask only that you also link me around 3-5 fights to review. 

 


7/20/12 9:28 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Chimonos Revenge
264 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 7/26/07
Posts: 14658
too much math.....



I need Rich Franklin to help me figure that out.


I kid, I kid
7/20/12 9:59 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
DanielCaton
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/11/11
Posts: 4
 I'm looking for the perfect scouting report, to be honest.  I think that if I keep working on the formula I could be close in a year or so.  The only draw back I think is if someone see's a score of 2 or 3 they assume that's a low.  But, they should account for the absolute value and range from -7 to +7.  But, I'm still tinkering with it and comparing top level talent to prospects and trying to find the gap.  I'm also looking for that special number to equate to what one number would mean to get a Zuffa contract.  I'm thinking rougly 73 (take away age number to graph it) is a entry level number for those guys.  I'm still crunching numbers to find out. 

Anyways, hope you guys enjoy :)
7/20/12 10:07 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Wade5000
32 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 2188
Allen fights again vs Cody Williams--- Legacy in Sept
7/20/12 10:13 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
DanielCaton
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/11/11
Posts: 5
 I hope people tune, the guy is exciting.  Legacy does a great job of finding guys then ultimatly pushing them to the UFC.  Hopefully Gerald Harris will get the call back once his knee's fixed up.
7/20/12 10:45 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
mick713
24 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/7/05
Posts: 87
Great assessment of Nascimento.
7/20/12 1:06 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
DanielCaton
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/11/11
Posts: 6
 @mick713, thanks
7/20/12 3:13 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
sly fox
18 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 6/30/09
Posts: 1800
DanielCaton -  I hope people tune, the guy is exciting.  Legacy does a great job of finding guys then ultimatly pushing them to the UFC.  Hopefully Gerald Harris will get the call back once his knee's fixed up.

 Legacy is rocking!!!
7/21/12 8:49 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
GladiatorGannon
277 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 07/21/12 8:49 AM
Member Since: 9/1/04
Posts: 19329
 I respectfuly disagree on your guard comments.

"Fighters in MMA are too often afraid to use their Guard.  In the minds of many, being in Guard means you are losing the fight. A lot of judges do see it that way, but if you can make your guard a weapon, like Aoki, why not have the option in your armory? Nascimento does, and he can finish with it."

Fighters attempt to use guard pretty much every time they get taken down
(it's much better than being mounted or side controlled). If they're not able to sweep/submit/stand up, it's not that they're not trying to "use" their guard, it's because their attempts are being stuffed. Under current rules of MMA, guard is not an equal position for two equally skilled guys.

Yeah, jumping guard can still be a viable strategy if you know you have a major advantage in jiujitsu, but these kinds of mismatches are getting rarer and rarer as fighters become more well rounded.

 
7/21/12 10:08 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Wade5000
32 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 2189
ttt
7/21/12 4:27 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
DanielCaton
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/11/11
Posts: 8
GladiatorGannon -  I respectfuly disagree on your guard comments.

"Fighters in MMA are too often afraid to use their Guard.  In the minds of many, being in Guard means you are losing the fight. A lot of judges do see it that way, but if you can make your guard a weapon, like Aoki, why not have the option in your armory? Nascimento does, and he can finish with it."

Fighters attempt to use guard pretty much every time they get taken down
(it's much better than being mounted or side controlled). If they're not able to sweep/submit/stand up, it's not that they're not trying to "use" their guard, it's because their attempts are being stuffed. Under current rules of MMA, guard is not an equal position for two equally skilled guys.

Yeah, jumping guard can still be a viable strategy if you know you have a major advantage in jiujitsu, but these kinds of mismatches are getting rarer and rarer as fighters become more well rounded.

 
I can see you're assesment and it's fair.  I was refering to making you're guard just as good as your stand up or any other aspect of a fighters game.  To be fair just having someone sit in your guard is not the same as an active guard or even attacking guard.
 
7/21/12 5:20 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
GladiatorGannon
277 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 9/1/04
Posts: 19334
DanielCaton - 
GladiatorGannon -  I respectfuly disagree on your guard comments.

"Fighters in MMA are too often afraid to use their Guard.  In the minds of many, being in Guard means you are losing the fight. A lot of judges do see it that way, but if you can make your guard a weapon, like Aoki, why not have the option in your armory? Nascimento does, and he can finish with it."



Fighters attempt to use guard pretty much every time they get taken down

(it's much better than being mounted or side controlled). If they're not able to sweep/submit/stand up, it's not that they're not trying to "use" their guard, it's because their attempts are being stuffed. Under current rules of MMA, guard is not an equal position for two equally skilled guys.



Yeah, jumping guard can still be a viable strategy if you know you have a major advantage in jiujitsu, but these kinds of mismatches are getting rarer and rarer as fighters become more well rounded.


 
I can see you're assesment and it's fair.  I was refering to making you're guard just as good as your stand up or any other aspect of a fighters game. 


The problem with that is that if two guys have equal jiujitu/equal guardwork/equal everything, odds are the guy on top is landing more/heavier shots, is scoring ahead on the judges cards, and even has a higher chance of passing and getting a sub than the guy on bottom has of gettin one straight out of guard. Just because it's an equal position in sport grappling doesn't mean it's an equal postion when the heavy leather is dropping.

To be fair just having someone sit in your guard is not the same as an active guard or even attacking guard.



A lot of active guards become a lot less active when the top man is landing lot of shots and has jiujitsu just as good as yours and can shut down your attacks before the audience is even aware of them.

And thanks for taking the time to engage in reasoned debate here.
 
7/21/12 10:31 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
DanielCaton
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 4/11/11
Posts: 9
GladiatorGannon - 
DanielCaton - 
GladiatorGannon -  I respectfuly disagree on your guard comments.

"Fighters in MMA are too often afraid to use their Guard.  In the minds of many, being in Guard means you are losing the fight. A lot of judges do see it that way, but if you can make your guard a weapon, like Aoki, why not have the option in your armory? Nascimento does, and he can finish with it."



Fighters attempt to use guard pretty much every time they get taken down

(it's much better than being mounted or side controlled). If they're not able to sweep/submit/stand up, it's not that they're not trying to "use" their guard, it's because their attempts are being stuffed. Under current rules of MMA, guard is not an equal position for two equally skilled guys.



Yeah, jumping guard can still be a viable strategy if you know you have a major advantage in jiujitsu, but these kinds of mismatches are getting rarer and rarer as fighters become more well rounded.


 
I can see you're assesment and it's fair.  I was refering to making you're guard just as good as your stand up or any other aspect of a fighters game. 


The problem with that is that if two guys have equal jiujitu/equal guardwork/equal everything, odds are the guy on top is landing more/heavier shots, is scoring ahead on the judges cards, and even has a higher chance of passing and getting a sub than the guy on bottom has of gettin one straight out of guard. Just because it's an equal position in sport grappling doesn't mean it's an equal postion when the heavy leather is dropping.

To be fair just having someone sit in your guard is not the same as an active guard or even attacking guard.



A lot of active guards become a lot less active when the top man is landing lot of shots and has jiujitsu just as good as yours and can shut down your attacks before the audience is even aware of them.

And thanks for taking the time to engage in reasoned debate here.
 
NP,

I'm not saying what you're saying isn't the case.  And yes, every blow to the head takes a belt tip away, lol.  What I was suggesting that offensive guards like Aoki's are finishers.  Just as justified as thai pluming and kneeing a guy to finish.  It can work that way.  And yes the unified rules to levy to top control.  I think reversals, sweeps, submission attempts should be counted the same way takedowns and control are.  Just because you're in someones guard doesn't mean your actually winning.  Look at the first anderson vs. chael fight.  Chael looked liked a mauled salmon at the end of that fight, from elbows and active guard work.  Many people forget it was a straight right from the bottom that got anderson to slip in that triangle choke.  And yeah, I concede that the guard will never get the points that it should, as such I see why many fighters reluctantly train off their backs.  I was only suggesting that it should be an option if you can't take a guy down and he's tuning you up on the feet.  Pulling or working you're guard should be a weapon rather than a survival instinct.

*and thanks for the intelligent debate rather than muk throwing*
 
7/22/12 10:56 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Wade5000
32 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 2190
Allen fights again vs Cody Williams--- Legacy in Sept
7/24/12 4:17 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Wade5000
32 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Member Since: 1/1/01
Posts: 2191
ttt

Reply Post

You must log in to post a reply. Click here to login.