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10/9/12 4:17 PM
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Seemore Butts
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Also, imo it is best to be long right now. QE3 means a skewed S&D in equities. The economy might be shit, but it has nothing to do with the stock market. QE3 should increase equity prices until expiration.
10/9/12 4:36 PM
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Joe Ray
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Seemore Butts - Joe Ray, how are you playing the vix?

I would not by ETFs that play the VIX, for instance ishares vxx. VIX related ETFs in no way mimic the performance of the actual VIX, and you will find yourself in a losing position through time decay and degradation. Believe me, I have experience. Even in days of selling, you can see VIX based ETFs take a beating. Best play to short long ETFs, like VXX. Much better imo. Some times it is hard to find shares to short, but you don't want to be long the VIX through an ETF as long as there are HFTs and Hedge Funds ready and able to rape you.

Well I was going to say I would try and buy a suitable ETF.

But I don't have any spare cash to put on a VIX position.

But surely there must be a suitable one somewhere?

You can put on volatility arbitrage trades using options but that is rather complex, and still high risk.





10/9/12 4:37 PM
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karasu
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Currently, I am up 11% in my overall portfolio. The 5-stock pick portfolio are recent additions. I have a number of long term positions. Some of these postions are down BIG and may underperform a number of years but I expect them to outperform longterm.

I also have some longerterm picks that are currently profitable and that I plan to continue holding for a while longer.
10/9/12 4:41 PM
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bryanand
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"Do you REALLY think GE is going to get permanently wiped out? If it does drop a bit that simply creates a great buying opportunity?"

I would like to have seen what happend to them if they didn't get a 75 billion loan guarantee during the financial crisis.

10/9/12 4:43 PM
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Joe Ray
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VIX futures?
10/9/12 4:57 PM
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karasu
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bryanand - "Do you REALLY think GE is going to get permanently wiped out? If it does drop a bit that simply creates a great buying opportunity?"

I would like to have seen what happend to them if they didn't get a 75 billion loan guarantee during the financial crisis.


Good point but it is a Political issue. I am not here to take political sides. I just understand that the Government Bush or Obama could not allow society to collapse.

This is an example: Children, Mothers, Fathers, etc. have cancer. GE makes those CT machines and other things that are necessary in the treatment of those people.

Had GE and many other large corporations been allowed to FAIL perhaps many more people would have lost jobs, not received medical treatment, etc.

Yes, I am certain many very weatlhy people became even more wealthy as they benefited from the BAILOUTS but many more people would probably have suffered were it not for the BAILOUTS. It is really a difficult issue and I'm certain not one that was/is easily resolved.

Life is not so black and white. Also, it is easy to form an opinion but I also realize that I am far below the intelligence and do not have full access to the necessary information of those that are/were tasked with fixing this problem.

Could I be President? Am I capable of doing Bernanke's job? Absolutely not. So I just hope that they are doing their best with what conditions are presented to them.

It was also this realization that made me rethink being a market BEAR because I do not personally wish to fall into a mental state of wishing for Market corrections because market corretions represent society not doing well/people suffering and I want to be positive, I want to see society recover and people prosper.
10/9/12 8:25 PM
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Seemore Butts
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Joe Ray - 
Seemore Butts - Joe Ray, how are you playing the vix?

I would not by ETFs that play the VIX, for instance ishares vxx. VIX related ETFs in no way mimic the performance of the actual VIX, and you will find yourself in a losing position through time decay and degradation. Believe me, I have experience. Even in days of selling, you can see VIX based ETFs take a beating. Best play to short long ETFs, like VXX. Much better imo. Some times it is hard to find shares to short, but you don't want to be long the VIX through an ETF as long as there are HFTs and Hedge Funds ready and able to rape you.

Well I was going to say I would try and buy a suitable ETF.

But I don't have any spare cash to put on a VIX position.

But surely there must be a suitable one somewhere?

You can put on volatility arbitrage trades using options but that is rather complex, and still high risk.






Not sure. I know nothing of options. I know VXX is incredibly risky to trade. The big dogs use it for hedging, but they are allowed the risk. Day trading VXX will find you in a world of hurt if you're not careful. Of course on a day of massive selling and huge volume, playing vxx would be good, but even then you have to be careful.

Shorting long etfs is the way to go because of time decay. There is a reason Hedge Funds do it. If you check the share availability of ETFs during heavy selling, you will find it very difficult to find shares to short.

I wouldn't say the VIX is a good play right now. QE3 is going, election is on in the U.S. Europe is quiet. The indices are making higher lows, and higher highs. The trend is bullish.
10/9/12 8:30 PM
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jasonhightower
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karasu - Of course I could be wrong about all this and these things could be the Market SUCKS and I will lose my OG cred and I will not be remembered for my former stock picks:

(GE) @ around $15

(BAC) @ $5

(S) @ $2something

(MSFT) @ $24-$25
I still think BAC is a decent prospect if your willing to go long. Phone Post
10/10/12 3:19 AM
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Joe Ray
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Seemore Butts - 
Joe Ray - 
Seemore Butts - Joe Ray, how are you playing the vix?

I would not by ETFs that play the VIX, for instance ishares vxx. VIX related ETFs in no way mimic the performance of the actual VIX, and you will find yourself in a losing position through time decay and degradation. Believe me, I have experience. Even in days of selling, you can see VIX based ETFs take a beating. Best play to short long ETFs, like VXX. Much better imo. Some times it is hard to find shares to short, but you don't want to be long the VIX through an ETF as long as there are HFTs and Hedge Funds ready and able to rape you.

Well I was going to say I would try and buy a suitable ETF.

But I don't have any spare cash to put on a VIX position.

But surely there must be a suitable one somewhere?

You can put on volatility arbitrage trades using options but that is rather complex, and still high risk.






Not sure. I know nothing of options. I know VXX is incredibly risky to trade. The big dogs use it for hedging, but they are allowed the risk. Day trading VXX will find you in a world of hurt if you're not careful. Of course on a day of massive selling and huge volume, playing vxx would be good, but even then you have to be careful.

Shorting long etfs is the way to go because of time decay. There is a reason Hedge Funds do it. If you check the share availability of ETFs during heavy selling, you will find it very difficult to find shares to short.

I wouldn't say the VIX is a good play right now. QE3 is going, election is on in the U.S. Europe is quiet. The indices are making higher lows, and higher highs. The trend is bullish.

You may well be right but remember that the way to trade volatility is to buy it when it is low.

Volatility moves in cycles. I would not expect volatility to stay low for a long time.

If I could find a decent ETF or other instrument that tracked the VIX I would take a position as a hedge. The downside is very limited because if you are getting the VIX at 14 it isn't going to go much lower.

When markets have a major sell-off, and that could be caused by Euro troubles or anything else that is out there, expect volatility to spike.

10/10/12 9:39 AM
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Seemore Butts
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Joe Ray - 
Seemore Butts - 
Joe Ray - 
Seemore Butts - Joe Ray, how are you playing the vix?

I would not by ETFs that play the VIX, for instance ishares vxx. VIX related ETFs in no way mimic the performance of the actual VIX, and you will find yourself in a losing position through time decay and degradation. Believe me, I have experience. Even in days of selling, you can see VIX based ETFs take a beating. Best play to short long ETFs, like VXX. Much better imo. Some times it is hard to find shares to short, but you don't want to be long the VIX through an ETF as long as there are HFTs and Hedge Funds ready and able to rape you.

Well I was going to say I would try and buy a suitable ETF.

But I don't have any spare cash to put on a VIX position.

But surely there must be a suitable one somewhere?

You can put on volatility arbitrage trades using options but that is rather complex, and still high risk.






Not sure. I know nothing of options. I know VXX is incredibly risky to trade. The big dogs use it for hedging, but they are allowed the risk. Day trading VXX will find you in a world of hurt if you're not careful. Of course on a day of massive selling and huge volume, playing vxx would be good, but even then you have to be careful.

Shorting long etfs is the way to go because of time decay. There is a reason Hedge Funds do it. If you check the share availability of ETFs during heavy selling, you will find it very difficult to find shares to short.

I wouldn't say the VIX is a good play right now. QE3 is going, election is on in the U.S. Europe is quiet. The indices are making higher lows, and higher highs. The trend is bullish.

You may well be right but remember that the way to trade volatility is to buy it when it is low.

Volatility moves in cycles. I would not expect volatility to stay low for a long time.

If I could find a decent ETF or other instrument that tracked the VIX I would take a position as a hedge. The downside is very limited because if you are getting the VIX at 14 it isn't going to go much lower.

When markets have a major sell-off, and that could be caused by Euro troubles or anything else that is out there, expect volatility to spike.


The VIX may not go lower, but the ETF certainly will. That is the problem with long ETFs trading the VIX. Every day the shares in the ETF need to be turned over and reset. That is why you see an ETF like VXX slowly getting beat up over time. All ETFs decay in time. It is not good to be in a long term position using an ETF. Like I said the best position is too be short a long ETF. For instance, right now bulls are winning. You could short a ETF that is short. Check out TZA. The ETF is short small caps. You short TZA instead of going long. If you are think we will see some volatility and selling, short a long ETF.

I have experience losing money going long with ETFs. Don't make the mistake I made!
10/10/12 1:42 PM
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karasu
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Seemore Butts - 
Joe Ray - 
Seemore Butts - 
Joe Ray - 
Seemore Butts - Joe Ray, how are you playing the vix?

I would not by ETFs that play the VIX, for instance ishares vxx. VIX related ETFs in no way mimic the performance of the actual VIX, and you will find yourself in a losing position through time decay and degradation. Believe me, I have experience. Even in days of selling, you can see VIX based ETFs take a beating. Best play to short long ETFs, like VXX. Much better imo. Some times it is hard to find shares to short, but you don't want to be long the VIX through an ETF as long as there are HFTs and Hedge Funds ready and able to rape you.

Well I was going to say I would try and buy a suitable ETF.

But I don't have any spare cash to put on a VIX position.

But surely there must be a suitable one somewhere?

You can put on volatility arbitrage trades using options but that is rather complex, and still high risk.






Not sure. I know nothing of options. I know VXX is incredibly risky to trade. The big dogs use it for hedging, but they are allowed the risk. Day trading VXX will find you in a world of hurt if you're not careful. Of course on a day of massive selling and huge volume, playing vxx would be good, but even then you have to be careful.

Shorting long etfs is the way to go because of time decay. There is a reason Hedge Funds do it. If you check the share availability of ETFs during heavy selling, you will find it very difficult to find shares to short.

I wouldn't say the VIX is a good play right now. QE3 is going, election is on in the U.S. Europe is quiet. The indices are making higher lows, and higher highs. The trend is bullish.

You may well be right but remember that the way to trade volatility is to buy it when it is low.

Volatility moves in cycles. I would not expect volatility to stay low for a long time.

If I could find a decent ETF or other instrument that tracked the VIX I would take a position as a hedge. The downside is very limited because if you are getting the VIX at 14 it isn't going to go much lower.

When markets have a major sell-off, and that could be caused by Euro troubles or anything else that is out there, expect volatility to spike.


The VIX may not go lower, but the ETF certainly will. That is the problem with long ETFs trading the VIX. Every day the shares in the ETF need to be turned over and reset. That is why you see an ETF like VXX slowly getting beat up over time. All ETFs decay in time. It is not good to be in a long term position using an ETF. Like I said the best position is too be short a long ETF. For instance, right now bulls are winning. You could short a ETF that is short. Check out TZA. The ETF is short small caps. You short TZA instead of going long. If you are think we will see some volatility and selling, short a long ETF.

I have experience losing money going long with ETFs. Don't make the mistake I made!

to clarify you are talking about LEVERAGED ETFs and NOT index etfs like (SPY) (DIA) (IWM) right?
10/10/12 1:46 PM
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Joe Ray
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I have read that because the decay of a leveraged ETF is predictable, they are good candidates for pairs trading.

But as above, surely not all ETF's suffer from time decay?
10/10/12 1:49 PM
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karasu
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Hooray I get to compete with Cramer!

"World Wrestling [WWE 8.31 0.02 (+0.24%) ]: Despite the dividend, this stock was not a "buy." "It has no growth," he said. "That's not enough for me."-----


http://www.cnbc.com/id/49342742?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
10/10/12 1:50 PM
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Seemore Butts
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Yes, I am speaking of leveraged ETFs, sorry, I should have clarified that. VXX is 3x.
10/10/12 3:01 PM
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karasu
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UPDATE:

Today I added to my (SH) position to increase my proctection
10/10/12 3:07 PM
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karasu
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Today the markets are down and could continue down or could see a bounce tomorrow(this is NOT to say the markets are going to totally tank, just a healthy correction and/or of course as always, ANYTHING is possible).

Using the (SPY) as my measure Markets could be at a reversal of up trend or could bounce off trend support.
10/22/12 2:28 PM
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karasu
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Edited: 10/22/12 2:47 PM
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today the overall markets are negative yet the 5 stock portfolio is positive if you have an equal weighting. This is an example of out-performance/under-performance.

There may be times that the portfolio under-performs and times of out-performance. If you believe in your portfolio you will not be affected by the Lemming Effect.

I told you before that this portfolio could lose you money. These stocks could all go to zero. If if does end up doing well and you make some money, I hope that you will remember to give some of your profits to a charitable cause :)

If it does not do well, and you lose money, do not blame me. Do not just buy on stock tips alone. Do your own research and invest at your own risk.
12/6/12 9:53 AM
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karasu
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karasu - Of course I could be wrong about all this and these things could be the Market SUCKS and I will lose my OG cred and I will not be remembered for my former stock picks:

(GE) @ around $15

(BAC) @ $5

(S) @ $2something

(MSFT) @ $24-$25

Just sold my position in (BAC) this morning to lock in a gain of over 100%. Of course the stock could continue to go up but I am happy with my little victory this day :)
12/6/12 10:17 AM
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BigEyedFish
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karasu - Of course I could be wrong about all this and these things could be the Market SUCKS and I will lose my OG cred and I will not be remembered for my former stock picks:

(GE) @ around $15

(BAC) @ $5

(S) @ $2something

(MSFT) @ $24-$25

funny you mentioned BAC. Im thinking of selling off mine. Ive made some money on it but I want to dump off all of my US investments in the financial and business sectors.

Especially US banks, the derivatives scare the shit out of me. So although BAC is/was a low buy, I expect the value to crash again, hard and for a long, long time.

Link to follow:
12/6/12 10:17 AM
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BigEyedFish
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putting aside the source for a moment, the idea of what is being explained is pretty clear.  What do you guys think?  Check out BAC by scrolling down:

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

*paging billid* 

 

12/6/12 10:22 AM
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karasu
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I wouldn't bet against (BAC) it was just simply time for me to take some profits
12/6/12 10:26 AM
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karasu
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I should also add that not only would I not bet against (BAC) I would not bet against the USA economic and housing recovery either......

Of course it is also wise to be prepared for all possible eventualities ;)
12/6/12 10:29 AM
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BigEyedFish
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did you click the link?
12/6/12 10:36 AM
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BigEyedFish
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Im not trying to be argumentative or anything but I really dont see how the artificial propping up of the economy and the resistance to letting these bubbles burst 'naturally' is helping any real growth? I mean the government is just bailing out and printing money. I dont see how this changes fundamentally, what is wrong with the economy. I dont think this is a cycle. It is a cycle that will not come to fruition as normal cycles do because the politicians dont want to be at the helm when bubbles pop. We saw Bush do it, we are seeing Obama do it like crazy.

Interested in OG financiers' opinions of the link I posted.
12/6/12 10:50 AM
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karasu
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BigEyedFish - Im not trying to be argumentative or anything but I really dont see how the artificial propping up of the economy and the resistance to letting these bubbles burst 'naturally' is helping any real growth? I mean the government is just bailing out and printing money. I dont see how this changes fundamentally, what is wrong with the economy. I dont think this is a cycle. It is a cycle that will not come to fruition as normal cycles do because the politicians dont want to be at the helm when bubbles pop. We saw Bush do it, we are seeing Obama do it like crazy.

Interested in OG financiers' opinions of the link I posted.

My Humble Opinion is that it would be a great mistake to underestimate the intelligence of the power-players. Every Joe Six Pack has an opinion but unless they are operating at that level then they probably don't really understand what's going on.

Me, I respect the capabilities of these power-players and recognize my own limitations.

I have my methods and others must discover their own. I would caution arrogance and believing too much in your own intelligence and personal beliefs(biases).

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