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Cigars, Beer & Poker Ground >> What are the odds he has quads here?


11/13/12 3:35 PM
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1st Round Armbar
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Online 6 max game, I'm in the Big Blind.
Folded around to small blind.
No reads on small blind as I'd only played a few hands, but he has a full stack so I'm assuming he is decent

SB bets 3BB and I call from BB with KJo

Flop comes down KQ7 no flush draw.
SB bets and I call.

Turn is KQ7 Q
SB bets again and I call.

River is KQ7 Q Q
SB shoves for about 1 1/2x pot

What do? call or fold?
1/18/13 6:52 PM
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Mentaljim
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Hard to say when you don't know what his starting hand range is.

Being first to act and raising would suggest that he has either high paired cards or suited connecting face cards.

The action on the river seems a bit strong at 1.5 x pot.

Looking at that he could be sitting on poket 7's and the queen on the river his weakened his full house to anyone with a higher pocket pair, a king or the lucky person holding the last queen.
1/18/13 7:00 PM
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Mentaljim
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I would call.
1/23/13 1:10 PM
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KZTT_HaliChap
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You played this hand brutally bad.  He doesn't have to have anything good at all to attempt a sb v bb steal.  So you could have 3bet pre flop, or raised the flop or turn for info.

 

You flopped top pair 2nd kicker, in position, against an opponent who SHOULD have a wider range here, yet you let him take control of the hand the whole way.

 

As played, you have to call.

3/27/13 8:08 PM
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andre
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I would snap call. I think just calling pre is fine because you have position and you said you don't know anything about his range.

I think calling the flop is fine as you likely have the best hand and if he has a naked ace he's drawing to 3 outs, is likely to bet the turn even if he doesn't improve, and you will likely only get called if you raise the flop by a hand that beats you.

I think him betting the turn after making trips or better is a good play but depending on the limits/skill of the person it's probably more likely he checks to induce you to bluff at it. Your call on the flop represents the 7 (if he has the queen) more than it does the king, so his betting the turn shouldnt bring him any more money if he has the queen. That said, some players will bet it--and I personally prefer playing it this way--when they turn trips because the expectation is that you will check trips and let the BB bet for you, at least at the lower limits.

Once the 3 queen hits the board it is safe to simply call it a cooler if he has you beat, because odds are strongly against it. I would think AA is more likely.
3/28/13 11:08 AM
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VectorWega
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Depending on the bet sizing, I could actually find a fold on the turn here. As played, given stack sizes it would be silly to fold this river with no reads.
3/28/13 12:12 PM
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andre
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VectorWega - Depending on the bet sizing, I could actually find a fold on the turn here. As played, given stack sizes it would be silly to fold this river with no reads.
With no reads on the villain I'd find it hard to fold the turn. As you said though, there is probably a bet size that would get me to fold simply because the board lacks draws except for JT and a couple of gutshot draws, and most people don't double barrel air.

What limits was this at? Phone Post
3/28/13 12:14 PM
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andre
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But to answer the thread title, I think the odds are 1:45. Phone Post
3/28/13 12:16 PM
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andre
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I'm rusty though.. Could be 2:45. Phone Post
2/17/14 11:17 PM
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civ77
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you are probably chopping. Don't worry about actual percentages, as everybody who has posted is wrong/ looking at it the wrong way. If you're ok with 95% of the time either chopping or losing, call. Probably should call as its not a huge over shove and you do have a decent amount committed relative to the bet you're facing. Are you playing on lock?
2/19/14 10:34 AM
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andre
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civ77 - you are probably chopping. Don't worry about actual percentages, as everybody who has posted is wrong/ looking at it the wrong way. If you're ok with 95% of the time either chopping or losing, call. Probably should call as its not a huge over shove and you do have a decent amount committed relative to the bet you're facing. Are you playing on lock?
How am I wrong if I'm saying its a snap call?

The river and flop are never folds, and the turn is almost never a fold. As you said, with stacks so shallow there isn't much to discuss. The only spot worth a pause is the turn, IMO. Phone Post 3.0
3/8/14 11:37 AM
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JOB
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Very small chance he has quads. You should have check-raised the turn, and played the hand way too passive. Letting people bet into you doesn't let you know where you stand.

Hard to say exactly what he had if you don't know his range, or his blind steal percentage.

I would have called, but I wouldn't have put myself in the position of having to make that decision. Turn check-raise is so powerful in poker. If he shoves over the top of your check raise, it's cheaper to find out where you're at than calling a river shove.
3/8/14 11:41 AM
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JOB
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Also, I would have liked to see the bet sizing on each street. Bet sizing is a good indicator of what he has there. His turn bet should have been relatively small, as if he had the queen he should have been betting for value. The river shove seems suspicious to me however. I would have put him on a king with a worse kicker. But it's really hard to say without knowing.
3/12/14 10:35 AM
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andre
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JOB - Very small chance he has quads. You should have check-raised the turn, and played the hand way too passive. Letting people bet into you doesn't let you know where you stand.

Hard to say exactly what he had if you don't know his range, or his blind steal percentage.

I would have called, but I wouldn't have put myself in the position of having to make that decision. Turn check-raise is so powerful in poker. If he shoves over the top of your check raise, it's cheaper to find out where you're at than calling a river shove.
The problem with check-raising is that you only get called by hands that beat you and fold out any hand you beat/bluffs.

I don't think you need to really know where you are in a BvB situation with 100bbs or less and the king high full house. I think you chop some of the time, lose a bit more of the time, but win a big pot the vast majority of the time, so if you are never folding then you want to take the line that gets the villain to put as much money in the pot as possible. Phone Post 3.0
3/21/14 11:31 PM
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Harvey Specter
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