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UnderGround Forums >> Rousey-Carmouche Technical Breakdown


2/11/13 12:35 PM
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FatBuddha
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Edited: 02/11/13 12:41 PM
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I watched a few of Carmouche's fights and this is what I saw (feel free to add your analysis):

First, I was impressed by her toughness and conditioning. She's a tough girl and no push over. This and some of her technique impressed me. That being said, I think that her being the heavy underdog against Rousey is justified because she's simply not technical enough:

STANDING STRIKING RANGE: Even
Rousey throws mostly straight jabs and crosses and I've seen Carmouche's vulnerability to some straight shots right down the middle. Carmouche catches kicks well (and then trips her opponent) but Rousey rarely if ever throws kicks and fights from more of a boxing than a kickboxing structure. Carmouche is the better kickboxer but doesn't possess the clinch/takedown defense to turn this into a kickboxing match. Although Rousey has displayed the bad habit of keeping her chin up, Carmouche doesn't have knockout power. Because of these factors, the clinch is almost inevitable sometime in the first round.

The likely effect of Carmouche's kicks are a mixed bag. On the one hand, she may be able to utilize them to keep Rousey away and keep some range. If Rousey has skill in catching kicks (unknown) applying a judo sweep (ouchi, sasae, etc.) will be second nature to her from here. The one danger is that Carmouche has a decent high kick which is the second likeliest way for an upset win for Carmouche (the most likely upset scenario is described below)




CLINCH: Advantage - Rousey
Carmouche has achieved a lot of her success by applying some basic judo from the clinch. She likes the right side osoto-gari (outside sweep or "trip") and has utilized this to get on top to side control or mount (her best positions). The problem is that Rousey is light years ahead of Carmouche skill-wise from the clinch. When the fight goes to the clinch, Carmouche will be going for a ride.

GROUND GAME: Advantage - Rousey
In the unlikely case that Carmouche ends up on top in Rousey's guard, it's arm bar city for Rousey. Carmouche doesn't technically attempt to pass the guard. Instead she likes to throws knees to her opponent's thighs and legs. While creative, these will do nothing in the grand scheme of things to finish the fight and will leave her off balance and vulnerable to a sweep into an armbar.

It's actually more likely that Rousey will end up momentarily in bottom side control then in guard bottom. This is because if she attempts an armbar and Carmouche slips out/defends, this is the likely position that will occur. Rhonda has the bad habit of "turtling up" from her Olympic judo days that she should break asap. Carmouche has a solid rear naked choke and such a scenario (Rousey going for an armbar and losing it, Rousey ending up on bottom side control and turtling, Carmouche taking the back and finishing with a rear naked choke) is the most likely scenario for an upset victory by Carmouche. Carmouche is very vulnerable to be put back in guard once she obtains side control since she favors striking over stabilizing the position. Hopefully Rousey has basic guard recomposition skills from side control bottom and will not turtle as she did against Meisha Tate (and where Tate took Rousey's back).

As far as finishing the armbar once she gets it, perhaps 30% of Rousey's brain's wiring is dedicated soley for 1 task: finishing the armbar. Furthermore, I was not impressed (in true GSP-Nick Diaz fashion) with Carmouche's armbar defense. In a short clip at her gym, a teammate surprises her with an armbar and she defends by clasping her hands together in a Gable grip. I hope Carmouche has more up her sleeve in terms of armbar defense than that or Rousey's going to be taking that arm home with her.

STRENGTH AND CONDITIONING: even
Carmouche is a highly conditioned ex-marine and Rousey is a former Olympic medalist. I don't forsee conditioning giving either a significant edge.

MENTAL TOUGHNESS AND HEART: even
Both have displayed significant mental toughness - Carmouche moreso in mma, Rousey (because her mma fights have been so short) moreso in international judo competition

OVERALL EDGE: significant edge to Rousey

Agree or disagree? Anything I missed?
2/11/13 12:37 PM
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ShaqNoob
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tl;dr
2/11/13 12:40 PM
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Anderson's BBC in my Goku
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good point on rousey's habit of turtling from judo...

2/11/13 12:46 PM
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FatBuddha
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Anderson's BBC in my Goku - 

good point on rousey's habit of turtling from judo...


Thanks, it's a huge vulnerability that has been neglected in discussion because Rousey is winning. When you win you often celebrate, when you lose, you ponder and analyze. Sometimes the most obssessed analyze even their wins like they would their losses, and I hope this is the case for Rhonda and it very well may be (any Oympian has that obssessive, single minded focus). On the other case there is tendency for judoka not to be open to bjj. This may be less so with Rousey (she trains with the Diaz brothers and has been at Eddie Bravos) but unfortunately many sport bjj players also have the habit of turtling.

We could "if" all day, but if Tate had been very skilled at finishing from the back it would have been game, set and match for her.

Rousey needs to plug up this hole in her game asap.
2/11/13 3:44 PM
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FatBuddha
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ttt
2/11/13 3:53 PM
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Stickgrappler
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FB,

VU'd (can't believe you have 0 repz?!)
2/11/13 4:14 PM
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JeffersonDArcyChoke
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Here is my breakdown.

Buffer announces.

They meet.

Liz throws a few jabs, gets taken down and taps to an arm bar at 2:03 of round 1.

Joe screams like he saw Jesus.

Dana does a cartwheel into the ring in order to strap the belt on Ronda and start calling out Cyborg.

Goldberg says "See you next time. Right here. Inside the Octagon" Phone Post
2/11/13 4:24 PM
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Doctor Snuggles
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How can you deduce what Rousey likes to throw? She's thrown what, 3 punches standing in her entire career?
The fact is, we have no idea what her stand up really looks like. Not only have we not seen anything yet, she is probably evolving at a fast rate. Her pad work looked excellent in primetime.
2/11/13 4:26 PM
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Doctor Snuggles
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Edited: 02/11/13 4:26 PM
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*doublepost*
(damn this forum software is prehistoric)
2/11/13 5:04 PM
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FatBuddha
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Stickgrappler - FB,

VU'd (can't believe you have 0 repz?!)

thanks very much, yeah I thought there would be more discussion as well lol
2/11/13 5:14 PM
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FatBuddha
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Doctor Snuggles - How can you deduce what Rousey likes to throw? She's thrown what, 3 punches standing in her entire career?
The fact is, we have no idea what her stand up really looks like. Not only have we not seen anything yet, she is probably evolving at a fast rate. Her pad work looked excellent in primetime.

1. because she's thrown straight punches in virtually every one of her fights before the clinch

2. everyone is evolving. We analyze based on the evidence given to us. Additionally, I'm incorporating training footage of her with her boxing coach and her emphasis on boxing rather than kickboxing which obviously places a premium on straight, tight punches

3. is that really all you took from the entire analysis? lol
2/23/13 6:26 AM
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FatBuddha
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ttt
2/23/13 10:24 AM
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Knightsofthefirekingdom
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FatBuddha - ttt
Nice unbiased breakdown homie . Someone vote this fella up. Phone Post
2/23/13 1:05 PM
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FatBuddha
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Knightsofthefirekingdom - 
FatBuddha - ttt
Nice unbiased breakdown homie . Someone vote this fella up. Phone Post

thanks!
2/23/13 6:54 PM
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FatBuddha
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ttt

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