UnderGround Forums >> Hype, a Speculator’s Best Friend in MMA Betting!
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|2/12/13 4:10 PM|
Member Since: 12/29/12
While the paths to victory approach is the most important skill an MMA bettor can have, understanding the hype behind a fight is a close second. The paths to victory approach gives you the ability to predict how a fight will probably play out. And it is the hype that creates the difference between your odds and the money line odds that makes a fight prediction profitable to bet on. Hype throws the money line odds off, which provides profit opportunities. The UFC is world class at creating hype. As an MMA speculator, you must be aware of how the hype is affecting other MMA fans, the money line odds, and even how it is affecting you.
The money line odds are effectively set by the general MMA fan base. If MMA fans think Georges St. Pierre is a big favorite to beat Matt Serra, then the money line odds are going to reflect the fans’ views and have GSP as a big favorite. If MMA fans influence the money line odds, then it is important to determine what influences the MMA fans. In a lot of fights, MMA fans, or the market, predict the fight using their own knowledge of MMA and each fighter’s history. When GSP fights Serra, almost 99% of MMA fans know that GSP is the big favorite and that he will probably win the fight. In this example, the market’s views are correct, and there is no profit opportunity to take advantage of.
But other times, MMA fans do not view an obvious fight correctly and are influenced by the hype. The UFC has built its entire business model around hype. Hype makes people interested in a fight. When people are interested in a fight, they purchase tickets and they buy pay per views. When fans buy tickets and pay per views, the UFC makes money. Without hype, the fans do not care about fights enough to fork over their money. The UFC knows how important building hype is to their survival. Without hype, the UFC would go out of business. Consequently, the UFC has become exceptional at building hype around fights. The UFC is world class at building hype. Hype gets MMA fans emotionally invested in a fight. The fans get to know the fighters and find reasons to root for one guy over the other. Once fans are rooting for fighters and have become emotionally invested, their human biases take over and they find ways for their fighter to win the fight.
The hype that MMA fans indulge in makes them very poor handicappers. Often times, MMA fans under the spell of the hype, will see a fight very differently compared to someone who is unemotionally using the paths to victory approach to predict a fight. These are the situations we are looking for. These are the fights with large margins of safety. The hype can cause fans to be very wrong in their predictions about how a fight will probably play out. As we learned in part one, the general MMA fan base effectively sets the money line odds. When the money line odds and your own odds differ greatly, then you have a profitable betting opportunity. Without hype, the money line odds would usually be accurate about each fighter’s chances to win a fight, and there would be no profit opportunities. But when hype enters the picture, MMA fans become very bad fight predictors. The MMA fans’ errors distort the money line odds, and as a result, we find ourselves with profit opportunities. The UFC makes its money by hyping fights, and they have become very good at it. I expect the UFC to continue to be able to create hype and excitement around fights for years to come. This hype will provide you with many profitable bets.
One final thing to note about hype is that it is very strong! Please be clear, the hype that the UFC creates, combined with you being an MMA fan, will leave you very susceptible to being succumbed by the hype. Hype is strong, and it is very easy to get caught up in it and begin thinking about a particular fight just like the rest of the general MMA fan base. For most fights you do not bet on, you will probably indulge in the hype, become emotionally invested in a fight, and have fun watching the fights as a fan. There is nothing wrong with that.
But when you are handicapping and betting on a fight, you need prevent the hype from getting to you. You need to be conscious of the hype and not succumb to it. This can be very difficult at times. The hype that the UFC creates around fights is a strong force. When breaking down a fight, constantly take a step back and ask yourself if you are buying into the hype. Ask yourself how the hype is affecting the general MMA fan base. Then, ask yourself if the hype is affecting you in a similar way. Am I being affected by the hype around this fight? And if so, how is it affecting me? Constantly be asking yourself these questions when you are breaking down a fight. You have to continually step back from the MMA world and ask yourself if you are falling prey to the hype. If you fail to monitor how the hype is affecting you, you will bet on fighters that you should not be betting on, and you will fail to see great opportunities that are created by the hype.
Using the paths to victory approach, and understanding hype and how it affects the fans and the odds, are the two most important tools you have as an MMA speculator. Utilizing the paths to victory approach will help you determine how a fight will probably play out. And the hype creates the necessary difference between your odds and the market’s odds for a bet to become profitable. If you use the paths to victory approach and understand the hype, you will become a very skilled MMA speculator. These are the two most important aspects to breaking down a fight. Know them, and know them well!
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