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UnderGround Forums >> GuidaClayAllDay's Picks


4/19/14 1:00 PM
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crunchysavior
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Parlays are sucker bets, so hopefully he doesn't do round robins.
4/19/14 1:21 PM
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GuidaClayAllDay
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HalfThisGameIs90PercentMental - Do you ever do round robin bets or just str8 up single bets? Phone Post 3.0

I don't do nor do I recommend parlays (round robins) because they increase your chances of going belly-up. Your wins/losses will be a much larger proportion of your bankroll and if you suffer too many consecutive losing nights (which can happen to the best sportsbettors, no one can predict the future), you will have given the sportsbook all your capital, which is what they want.

I don't know if I am going to win or lose tonight, but I do know that in the long run, I am a proven winner, so as long as I am still here betting, I will continue to win in the long term. Betting parlays is a risk to a bettor's longevity.

Also, some sportsbooks don't give you true odds on a parlay, so they are in fact taking more money in vig then they should (Which also increases your chances of going bankrupt). Just for fun you should calculate the true odds of a parlay (return+investment)/investment for leg 1 * (return+investment)/investment for leg 2 etc and see if a sportsbook is/is not giving you a true payout. It's similar to how most American Roulette tables will payout 35-1 when there are 38 numbers on the wheel (0 and 00 included).

 

 

4/19/14 2:14 PM
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HalfThisGameIs90PercentMental
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GuidaClayAllDay -
HalfThisGameIs90PercentMental - Do you ever do round robin bets or just str8 up single bets? Phone Post 3.0

I don't do nor do I recommend parlays (round robins) because they increase your chances of going belly-up. Your wins/losses will be a much larger proportion of your bankroll and if you suffer too many consecutive losing nights (which can happen to the best sportsbettors, no one can predict the future), you will have given the sportsbook all your capital, which is what they want.

I don't know if I am going to win or lose tonight, but I do know that in the long run, I am a proven winner, so as long as I am still here betting, I will continue to win in the long term. Betting parlays is a risk to a bettor's longevity.

Also, some sportsbooks don't give you true odds on a parlay, so they are in fact taking more money in vig then they should (Which also increases your chances of going bankrupt). Just for fun you should calculate the true odds of a parlay (return+investment)/investment for leg 1 * (return+investment)/investment for leg 2 etc and see if a sportsbook is/is not giving you a true payout. It's similar to how most American Roulette tables will payout 35-1 when there are 38 numbers on the wheel (0 and 00 included).

 

 

Thanks! Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 1:52 AM
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JPet
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0-4 today and none were close .... OUCH
4/20/14 2:09 AM
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Milk Machine
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HalfThisGameIs90PercentMental - I'm tailing tonight VU man! GL Phone Post 3.0
Uh dont do that. And im not just saying that cuz after the fact he went 0-4, get on twitter and find sone real bettors Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 10:31 AM
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TelligmansTitties
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Ouch. We all have off nights I guess Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 10:58 AM
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UGCTT_TFK_UncleSam
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JPet - 0-4 today and none were close .... OUCH
Carmouche vs tate was as close a fight as any imo Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:05 AM
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caseharts
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Should have bet like me Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:24 AM
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cadamb41
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What was the payout for that garbage lol Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 7:10 PM
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ChrispyPicks
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No worries dude, my picks went 3-8 myself. Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 9:25 PM
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GuidaClayAllDay
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UFC on Fox 11 Results:

Unfortunate results. These lines above were better than all the closing lines, meaning there was a lot of expected value with these bets that did not go our way. Events like this one are a part of the variance game.

Check in for plays for future events. 

 

4/20/14 9:32 PM
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Milk Machine
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GuidaClayAllDay -

UFC on Fox 11 Results:

Unfortunate results. These lines above were better than all the closing lines, meaning there was a lot of expected value with these bets that did not go our way. Events like this one are a part of the variance game.

Check in for plays for future events. 

 

Your not very good, stop getting other people to follow. If i wasnt lazy id show you bet slips but look at my werdum threads. I lost on romero. I parlayed lima and masvidal. I bet bezkic. I bet cerrone, and werdum. and i hit nurmy with jones and joe b 1 kenobi for plus money. Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 9:47 PM
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Milk Machine
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TheTeaFactory -
Milk Machine -
GuidaClayAllDay -

UFC on Fox 11 Results:

Unfortunate results. These lines above were better than all the closing lines, meaning there was a lot of expected value with these bets that did not go our way. Events like this one are a part of the variance game.

Check in for plays for future events. 

 

Your not very good, stop getting other people to follow. If i wasnt lazy id show you bet slips but look at my werdum threads. I lost on romero. I parlayed lima and masvidal. I bet bezkic. I bet cerrone, and werdum. and i hit nurmy with jones and joe b 1 kenobi for plus money. Phone Post 3.0
Isn't he up like 2% in the past 6 months? What other investment can do this? Nothing!!! Phone Post 3.0
That is above the risk free rate (or 10 yr treasury bond)! Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 10:53 PM
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TelligmansTitties
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GuidaClayAllDay -

TUF China Finale Results:

 

Check back for UFN37 plays info later this week.

Stop the hate. His plays are legit. No one shoots 100% Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 10:55 PM
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TelligmansTitties
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GuidaClayAllDay -

Thanks for the kind words; it means a lot to me.

UFN Shogun vs Sonnen Results:

I want to reiterate again that the gambling community is full of scammers and cheats.

-Some people will claim they have a high winner picking percentage when they happen to only pick heavy favorites.

-Some will claim they made $300 of a $100 bet when a +300 line was never available to the public.

-Some will claim they went 5-0 on their MMA picks but waited until AFTER the event to say who they picked.

-Some will claim they bet Connor McGregor at -190 when he was only available at that price for minutes with a $100 cap.

I was sick of coming across the same bullshit and wanted to present the plays the way all plays should be presented.

Also I am using the regular 5dimes lines. By using the reduced juice lines or pinny lines, you can easily pick up an additional 1/2 to 1 unit per event. Basically I am making it harder than usual to generate a profit, but I'm doing this to prove that I'm not a Nigerian prince and I'm not selling wolf tickets.

Follow me @GuidaClayAllDay https://twitter.com/GuidaClayAllDay for updates, but I will continue to post here after my plays are tweeted.

Thanks again,

GCAD

To reinforce my last post... Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:01 PM
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ChrispyPicks
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I'll step in and say GuidaClayAllDay is the only guy I give props for his picks. He sticks by them, always shares them with you guys, and doesn't cherry pick the -800 favorites.

Not every card you will win on, it's a hobby (or profession for some). Win some,lose some, just have fun with it. Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:08 PM
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Milk Machine
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TelligmansTitties -
GuidaClayAllDay -

TUF China Finale Results:

 

Check back for UFN37 plays info later this week.

Stop the hate. His plays are legit. No one shoots 100% Phone Post 3.0
What sport are you comparing it to that shoot 100% is a thing? Do whatever you want idgaf Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:11 PM
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xaeo
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man you're bad at this lol Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:35 PM
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TelligmansTitties
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Milk Machine -
TelligmansTitties -
GuidaClayAllDay -

TUF China Finale Results:

 

Check back for UFN37 plays info later this week.

Stop the hate. His plays are legit. No one shoots 100% Phone Post 3.0
What sport are you comparing it to that shoot 100% is a thing? Do whatever you want idgaf Phone Post 3.0
I'm just saying that I'm sure you've had bad days as far as betting goes too. Everyone does. Even the "pros" have losing days. But the fact that he's putting out winning picks has to count for something IMO Phone Post 3.0
4/20/14 11:40 PM
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caseharts
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ChrispyPicks - I'll step in and say GuidaClayAllDay is the only guy I give props for his picks. He sticks by them, always shares them with you guys, and doesn't cherry pick the -800 favorites.

Not every card you will win on, it's a hobby (or profession for some). Win some,lose some, just have fun with it. Phone Post 3.0
I'm the best picker. Come to my paypal threads. But you and the king of this thread are great. You've picked some great upsets. I still challenge you both. Phone Post 3.0
4/21/14 12:02 AM
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ChrispyPicks
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caseharts -
ChrispyPicks - I'll step in and say GuidaClayAllDay is the only guy I give props for his picks. He sticks by them, always shares them with you guys, and doesn't cherry pick the -800 favorites.

Not every card you will win on, it's a hobby (or profession for some). Win some,lose some, just have fun with it. Phone Post 3.0
I'm the best picker. Come to my paypal threads. But you and the king of this thread are great. You've picked some great upsets. I still challenge you both. Phone Post 3.0
Not trying to hijack his thread but your the No DQ, split decision paypal guy right?

Most title fights or descent fights go SD so what's the point? By hook or by crook, a win is a win. Phone Post 3.0
4/21/14 12:03 AM
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Milk Machine
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caseharts -
ChrispyPicks - I'll step in and say GuidaClayAllDay is the only guy I give props for his picks. He sticks by them, always shares them with you guys, and doesn't cherry pick the -800 favorites.

Not every card you will win on, it's a hobby (or profession for some). Win some,lose some, just have fun with it. Phone Post 3.0
I'm the best picker. Come to my paypal threads. But you and the king of this thread are great. You've picked some great upsets. I still challenge you both. Phone Post 3.0
Me and you are 2-2 on paypal bets i believe but you got better odds on 1 and are up 5-10 on me Phone Post 3.0
4/21/14 12:05 AM
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caseharts
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ChrispyPicks -
caseharts -
ChrispyPicks - I'll step in and say GuidaClayAllDay is the only guy I give props for his picks. He sticks by them, always shares them with you guys, and doesn't cherry pick the -800 favorites.

Not every card you will win on, it's a hobby (or profession for some). Win some,lose some, just have fun with it. Phone Post 3.0
I'm the best picker. Come to my paypal threads. But you and the king of this thread are great. You've picked some great upsets. I still challenge you both. Phone Post 3.0
Not trying to hijack his thread but your the No DQ, split decision paypal guy right?

Most title fights or descent fights go SD so what's the point? By hook or by crook, a win is a win. Phone Post 3.0
Most decent fights? Most title fights? I think that's incorrect but I do have those rules. Most people prefer them. We don't trust judges. This eliminates almost all robberies from bets which leave bad tastes in our mouths. It doesn't turn the odds in my favor it just protects us from bull shit.

I much prefer it and so do everyone I bet with 99 percent of the time. I recommend joining us. We're building a community. Both you and guida should join us. Phone Post 3.0
4/21/14 12:06 AM
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caseharts
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Milk Machine -
caseharts -
ChrispyPicks - I'll step in and say GuidaClayAllDay is the only guy I give props for his picks. He sticks by them, always shares them with you guys, and doesn't cherry pick the -800 favorites.

Not every card you will win on, it's a hobby (or profession for some). Win some,lose some, just have fun with it. Phone Post 3.0
I'm the best picker. Come to my paypal threads. But you and the king of this thread are great. You've picked some great upsets. I still challenge you both. Phone Post 3.0
Me and you are 2-2 on paypal bets i believe but you got better odds on 1 and are up 5-10 on me Phone Post 3.0
You gotta come bet with me. The last few events have been wild fun.

You'll see me make a thread every event. Phone Post 3.0
4/21/14 12:06 AM
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GuidaClayAllDay
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https://twitter.com/GuidaClayAllDay

When I brainstormed and implemented my idea to post plays in real time at unfavorable market odds, I knew people would take shots at me on my worst days. But I didn't expect the overwhelming positive support I am getting from bettors here on the UG and from knowledgable sportsbettors in the sportsbetting community. I think the positive reaction is because you can see that there's no BS and no smoke and mirrors with my operation; I own up to my losses in the same fashion that I own up to my wins. 

I spend a lot of time not only prepping for my plays but also posting them in a public viewing format (that I am still refining). Thanks again for your support, it means a lot.


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