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UnderGround Forums >> WTF Early line Ellenberger 170,McDonald -215


5/7/13 3:25 PM
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FullyLoadedFists
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I'm a big fan of both guys! This will be an awesome fight! Phone Post
5/7/13 5:15 PM
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Dmoney35
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rory will absolutely destroy ellenberger Phone Post 3.0
5/7/13 5:29 PM
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Son of Neckbone
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I'm amazed.

I assumed Ellenberger would be a favorite, -150 or so.

Ellenberger is a Div II All American, meaning Rory has little chance to go to the ground if he Ellenberger doesn't want it to. In a standup battle it is Ellenberger all fucking day long, and he also has one punch KO power to finish the fight. If his cardio holds up for 2 rounds, this will be a decision win or KO for him.

Or maybe Rory just annoys the shit out of me and I want to find excuses for him to lose.

5/7/13 5:56 PM
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dahosse
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MasterofMartialArts -
dahosse - Rory's a better rounded fighter. Jake's the better physical fighter. This is a very intriguing match. I lean towards rory by sub or decision. I think Ellenberger's going to be loading up on his punches too much and will find himself out of position a lot. Phone Post 3.0
What the hell has happened recently to make you think Rory will sub Jake? Just curious. And Jakes striking is alot more technical than it used to be, watch the Marquardt fight. Phone Post 3.0
Just because you haven't seen it doesn't mean rory doesn't have a pretty well developed sub game. He usually beats people up or ragdolls them. He won't be doing either of those things with Ellenberger, so it stands to reason that his sub game may come into play. If he's successful picking jake apart on the feet, he'll stick with that, but jake's got a solid chin and great power, and I don't see rory pressing the fight very hard on the feet, even if he's got the advantage. Ellenberger may try to take the fight to the ground if he's getting frustrated in the standup, and I presume his wrestling pedigree and raw power will allow him to be successful at that if that's what he chooses to do, at which point we'll see what kind of bottom game rory has developed.

A better way to phrase my statement is that while I see rory by decision being the most likely outcome if he wins, there's also a possibility we'll see him win by sub. I do not see him finishing Ellenberger with strikes, even if jake gasses badly. If hake wins, I assume it'll be by tko fairly early in the fight. I just think jake is going to have a hard time finding rory's chin. Rory has reach and a more diversified striking game. I see jake coming out trying to throw bombs and mix it up, and rory moving and using kicks to frustrate and tire him out in the early going. Phone Post 3.0
5/7/13 6:06 PM
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da Vinci 81
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Son of Neckbone - I'm amazed.

I assumed Ellenberger would be a favorite, -150 or so.

Ellenberger is a Div II All American, meaning Rory has little chance to go to the ground if he Ellenberger doesn't want it to. In a standup battle it is Ellenberger all fucking day long, and he also has one punch KO power to finish the fight. If his cardio holds up for 2 rounds, this will be a decision win or KO for him.

Or maybe Rory just annoys the shit out of me and I want to find excuses for him to lose.

You may be right about rory not getting a takedown but I think you're way off in the standup. Rory is far more versatile than jake and he has the length to pick him apart. He completely dominated penn with nasty switch kicks, jabs, and body shots. And if kampann can put jake out I'd bet rory can as well. Phone Post 3.0
5/7/13 7:00 PM
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Kentpaul
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McDonald will destroy him and he will make it look easy IMO
5/7/13 7:07 PM
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bearockbrobama
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MMALOGIC -

ellenberger gasses after one round.

SN BET? Phone Post
5/7/13 7:49 PM
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MMARAIDER
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-215? Shit, was hoping it would be more around the -125 -165 range. Phone Post
5/7/13 8:10 PM
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Mark Hunts Pet Monkey
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On paper at least Ellenberger's resume eclipses Rory's several times over. But the hype behind Rory is uber strong. Not hating on Rory, but UFC is obviously making a concentrated effort to create a new storyline. Phone Post 3.0
5/7/13 8:14 PM
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klabo
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huggy bear - I think McDonald is very talented but his best wins were against Diaz(LW) and Penn(past prime LW). Ellenberger has fought a lot of the top guys and his striking has increased dramatically 2 go along with his wrestling. I think Ellenberger takes this and wouldn't be surprised if he finished rory. I'm putting a lot of money on Ellenberger. Phone Post 3.0
Rory trains with the best in the world over and over and over... He can handle anything Jake has and more. Rory via decision IMO Phone Post 3.0
5/7/13 9:33 PM
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Entreri
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Lines should be closer. One question mark is how Rory will perform after the injury.
5/7/13 9:37 PM
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dangerboy12
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I actually think that line is good if you want to bet McDonald. I'd have him around +300.

You can't beat who you can't hit. Rory's defense has reached elite status, and his control is top notch as well. It's one of those where you ask yourself, who has more ways he can win, and Rory simply has more ways he can win.
5/21/13 6:13 PM
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MasterofMartialArts
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dahosse -
MasterofMartialArts -
dahosse - Rory's a better rounded fighter. Jake's the better physical fighter. This is a very intriguing match. I lean towards rory by sub or decision. I think Ellenberger's going to be loading up on his punches too much and will find himself out of position a lot. Phone Post 3.0
What the hell has happened recently to make you think Rory will sub Jake? Just curious. And Jakes striking is alot more technical than it used to be, watch the Marquardt fight. Phone Post 3.0
Just because you haven't seen it doesn't mean rory doesn't have a pretty well developed sub game. He usually beats people up or ragdolls them. He won't be doing either of those things with Ellenberger, so it stands to reason that his sub game may come into play. If he's successful picking jake apart on the feet, he'll stick with that, but jake's got a solid chin and great power, and I don't see rory pressing the fight very hard on the feet, even if he's got the advantage. Ellenberger may try to take the fight to the ground if he's getting frustrated in the standup, and I presume his wrestling pedigree and raw power will allow him to be successful at that if that's what he chooses to do, at which point we'll see what kind of bottom game rory has developed.

A better way to phrase my statement is that while I see rory by decision being the most likely outcome if he wins, there's also a possibility we'll see him win by sub. I do not see him finishing Ellenberger with strikes, even if jake gasses badly. If hake wins, I assume it'll be by tko fairly early in the fight. I just think jake is going to have a hard time finding rory's chin. Rory has reach and a more diversified striking game. I see jake coming out trying to throw bombs and mix it up, and rory moving and using kicks to frustrate and tire him out in the early going. Phone Post 3.0
But who has he subbed at this level of competition in the UFC? Ellenberger is the most dangerous guy he has faced, and Jake has about the same amount of submission wins in his career as Rory does. I agree with the rest of your analysis, but I still think Ellenberger takes this fight. Rory has better kicks, but Jake overall is a more diverse striker, and more dangerous. Rorys best chance is exactly what you said, stay on the outside. Phone Post 3.0
5/21/13 6:17 PM
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Anderson's BBC in my Goku
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McDonald is a beast. Phone Post 3.0

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