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UnderGround Forums >> The COLLAPSE of the UFC's PPV Model


1/10/14 10:41 PM
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Haulport
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Tad Ghostal - 
tenchu - 
RKing85 - With Anderson and GSP not going to fight in 2014, the total number will decline this year I think it's safe to say. Phone Post 3.0

Likely.

Their 4 fights made up over 50% of all PPV buys in 2013. Jones vs Gus 2 should be a big fight (if it happens) but I'd be surprised if they don't see a big drop in numbers next year.

Wow....that is a very interesting stat. I did not even realize that!
1/10/14 11:06 PM
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Chris27
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Haulport - 
Tad Ghostal - 
tenchu - 
RKing85 - With Anderson and GSP not going to fight in 2014, the total number will decline this year I think it's safe to say. Phone Post 3.0

Likely.

Their 4 fights made up over 50% of all PPV buys in 2013. Jones vs Gus 2 should be a big fight (if it happens) but I'd be surprised if they don't see a big drop in numbers next year.

Wow....that is a very interesting stat. I did not even realize that!

Haulport reading this thinking about UFC PPV numbers going down next year.  Oh yea. 

1/10/14 11:13 PM
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Haulport
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Chris27 - 
Haulport - 
Tad Ghostal - 
tenchu - 
RKing85 - With Anderson and GSP not going to fight in 2014, the total number will decline this year I think it's safe to say. Phone Post 3.0

Likely.

Their 4 fights made up over 50% of all PPV buys in 2013. Jones vs Gus 2 should be a big fight (if it happens) but I'd be surprised if they don't see a big drop in numbers next year.

Wow....that is a very interesting stat. I did not even realize that!

Haulport reading this thinking about UFC PPV numbers going down next year.  Oh yea. 


I am not shocked that u have that gif so handy (no pun intended)
1/11/14 12:00 AM
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SevenLeggedSpider
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hp, can you reply to me? you replied to a post I made referencing Cindy, but I made a post before that which you didn't address. I quoted it a 2nd time and it still hasn't been responded to.

 

It's me, D241, so don't worry HP, although I may slightly disagree with you on this thread, I know your head is in the right place so I won't harp on you like lots of these other guys. 

Definitely won't be posting no boner gifs ;)

1/11/14 12:01 AM
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SevenLeggedSpider
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Here is the post:

 

What is your source that UFC isn't making money with the Fox deals, or as much money with the Fox deals?

Wouldn't that be pure speculation on your part?(or anyones part for that matter)

 

I don't think anyone knows if and how much of a cut UFC gets for sponsorships run on UFC/Fox shows.

I do think however that is something to take into conisderation, which I don't think you are.

1/11/14 3:40 AM
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Fedoral Crime
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I just came to VU Rambo for his awesome gifs. Well done sir Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 5:10 AM
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Chromium
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kalt - I bet it will be revised down to 500k or less. No way it did 1.1 million buys, never mind the slightly raised price. These tentative estimates always turn out wrong.

Hahahahahaha holy shit you're dumb.

1/11/14 5:47 AM
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Chromium
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Anyway, getting back to the problems the UFC are and are not facing:

Right now, they're not hurting for revenue. They've made this abundantly clear. Also 2013 was a more than reasonably successful year just for PPVs. They rebounded from the last two years, and not reaching 2010 numbers or whatever is silly considering their height of PPV sales was considerably higher than any other organization in history. The WWE never got close to 9 million buys in a single year, and even during the height of the Attitude era, 6 million+ in North America alone would have been considered fucking golden.

At the same time they're facing the possibly permanent loss of two major stars, and the devaluation of others (Cain, Jones), with only a slightly tarnished Rousey and an unproven Weidman to step up for them, and maybe Pettis on the horizon if he goes on a tear. Rousey is far from as devalued as JBJ when it comes to PPV draws since she still commands attention whenever she opens her mouth no matter how mentally unhinged she is (in part because she's so unhinged I'd think). I still think what she draws at 170 will be extremely telling though. Weidman is promising but we'll have to see what sort of number he draws against someone who isn't Anderson Silva.

Also, it's undeniable that despite 168 pulling 1.1 million, the PPV business in general is still down as fewer people are willing to fork over $55 for a single event or hold a viewing party, and their Fight Night shows and TUF are now on a still-developing cable network that doesn't have nearly the viewership as FX or Spike. PPV aint going away anytime soon but it cannot be their end game.

Honestly the best solution to their PPV problems, both in being less reliant on them and building them back up, is to get more shows on Big Fox. A Fight Pass network that in any way, shape, or form resembles the level of content that the WWE is giving away on theirs would be suicide and insanely stupid. The WWE's main product and main source of over-the-air revenue is their television shows and Wrestlemania (and maybe one or two other "major" PPVs like the Royal Rumble and Summer Slam). They inflate their PPV figures with international buys on their quarterly reports when people are paying a lot less for those things outside North America. Charging $10 a month to try and target hardcore fans who mostly watch pirate streams these days is potentially a good idea when their domestic PPV revenue is in the toilet and they have their television rights fees as the backbone of their company (not to mention really strong merchandising), especially since Wrestlemania won't be included in the deal after this coming one. They're still alienating cable distributors but whatever.

The UFC following suit would be shooting themselves in the head, and they're also prevented by contract from charging less over the internet for PPVs than what they do through cable/satellite. What they need is more mainstream exposure to build up their consumer-base again, and the best way to do that is to get on Fox more often. I guarantee you that the end game the UFC wants is for a major broadcast network like Fox to be the on to air all their major shows and pay them giant sums of money as they get 12 million viewers a show and approach at least the NHL in terms of annual revenue and mainstream sports credibility. And again, making their most premium content internet only achieves the opposite of this.

That's going to take a long ass time but transferring more shows to "Big" Fox is a start and Fox as a whole fucking owes them at the moment. Perhaps they can rework their deal. Maybe they can also rework their deals with cable and satellite distributors too, so they can have more freedom with what they do on the internet, as I guarantee they have more pull with them than the WWE does.

Meanwhile Fight Pass, for all it's problems, is a good idea with little risk as it gives them an infrastructure to potentially expand upon in the future, should they want to go more in the digital direction. I'm also glad that shows like the Singapore show are on such a thing rather than on FX2 or whatever because the ratings would be fucking embarassing, and it's offered at a price I can afford. Once they get it working properly it'll also faster and more convenient than a torrent, to be blunt, especially if I just want to see particular matches. Hopefully we get more significant content as the number of subscribers increases.

So yeah, the UFC has some problems its facing but they're still making a shitload of money and we're getting great fights. The sky aint exactly falling for them.

1/11/14 5:57 AM
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Viking Descent
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MMALOGIC -
Haulport - 
MMALOGIC - 
kungfugrip - is it safe to say the ufc is making more money now then they did 5 years ago in non-ppv items?

The tv deal must bring in lots of money. All of these events bring in lots of gate money also. Add to this, the expansion overseas and other countries around the world.

The number of huge ppv events are less, but I'm guessing the bottom dollar is much higher

Finally, I dont see the ufc cutting corners or taking cheat ways to keep things going.

Zuffa has record total revenues in 2013.


Since Zuffa is a private company and all their deals are nothing more than PR releases you CONVENIENTLY can't prove what you are saying so please be quiet...

the same guy you cite your ppv numbers from will confirm that in 2013 Zuffa achieved record revenues.

MMA Logic is apparently very close/in the UFC inner circle so I'd be inclined to listen to him over anyone else in this thread.

It's worth pointing out revenue is vanity, profit is sanity. However, the best way to avoid paying tax is to reinvest profits back into the business and creating awareness of the UFC/MMA. The UFC has clearly reinvested heavily.

The UFC is no doubt valued far higher now than 3-5 years ago. If 1-2 of those superfights would have happened last year the PPV figures would've looked a whole lot different.

The UFC top brass will be happy with the progress they've made but not content. Definitely not concerned. I'm guessing PPV figures is only one KPI out a of whole load of others. So you'd be crazy to judge the success of the company on that alone. Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 7:13 AM
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much
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Does anyone know if Meltzers numbers include those from UFC.tv?

I would assume more and more people are ordering the PPVs online and I doubt that number is included. It might not be a huge % of buys, but it should be noted.

If they are included, then my bad.
1/11/14 9:36 AM
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MMALOGIC
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Edited: 01/11/14 9:37 AM
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LDX - With the new TV deals, ppv numbers do not cause as much concern.
if the average price for a ppv is 53 (since most people buy HD)
6,150,000 ppvs * 53 = 325,950,000
since the distributor takes about half, you are left with 163,000,000

the fox and globo deals alone are a total of 160 million (100 fox and 60 globo)
then you add to that deals in strong markets such as canada, england, australia, deals with big companies such as televisa in mexico, and the rest of the world.

the ufc will not live or die by ppv numbers. their international expansion is the thing to look at. their deal with globo was for 3 million just 3 years ago and now it is for 60. if the ufc can strongly push their brand in a few markets in europe/asia and get big tv deals out of them, they could do without ppvs.

 

with the significant growth in overseas revenues It may help Zuffa survive without ppv if it had to but that's not really an adequate replacement.

Revenue from brazil and other markets should be an addition not looked at as a potential replacement.

PPV revenue comes mostly from the United States and to a lesser degree Canada and an even lesser degreee australia/new zealand... so the replacement for Zuffa's ppv revenue has to come from those markets otherwise it's really a loss of a revenue stream.

6 million buys generates roughly 300m in total revenue (roughly half of that is zuffa revenue) but Im sure Zuffa values that revenue stream as what that product generates in total (300m) even if they only get half.

So Zuffa would be looking for up to 300m primarily from the USA to adequately replace that revenue stream... not from brazil or anywhere else.

Only a major domestic TV partner like Fox or an in house network like Fight Pass would be able to do that.

1/11/14 10:31 AM
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McBottery
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kalt - I bet it will be revised down to 500k or less. No way it did 1.1 million buys, never mind the slightly raised price. These tentative estimates always turn out wrong.

UFC is making bad business decisions now. It's loaded with 'yes men' who won't tell dana no or offer any alternative ideas or criticize anything. "Awesome idea Dana, hell yea" is the only thing said over there. And Dana will always cite previous success as the reason why current plans will turn out profitable. Bad mistake.

Oversaturating the market with events is a horrible idea, and now they're oversaturating the talent pool as well. I hope they realize and correct their mistake before it's too late. They probably think they're "too big to fail" now but that is never the case and the worst business fallacy you can ever make.
LOL Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 11:12 AM
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used2wrestle
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You guys are all so hilarious. So they might not be making as much as they were but they're still make a ton of money, even with the pay raises. Oh no, we're only making a billion dollars, not 1.2 billion.

Also the company is private so they don't have to keep growing or face investor backlash and have the company's market value go down.

Finally, they're getting paid by fox too.

C'mon, their numbers are down from their heyday even with more exposure, these guys aren't at the food bank and the UFC isn't shutting down.
1/11/14 11:49 AM
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VTFU
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col·lapse (k-lps)

Definition : a sudden, complete failure; breakdown.

You keep using that word... Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 11:51 AM
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VTFU
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I do not think it means... Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 11:52 AM
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VTFU
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What you think... Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 11:52 AM
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VTFU
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it means. Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 11:54 AM
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George Hill
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People cutting off cable is way overplayed. At its peak, there were 100.5 million homes. Now it's just under 99 million. That's not 20%, it's less than 2%
1/11/14 3:01 PM
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LDX
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MMALOGIC - 
LDX - With the new TV deals, ppv numbers do not cause as much concern.
if the average price for a ppv is 53 (since most people buy HD)
6,150,000 ppvs * 53 = 325,950,000
since the distributor takes about half, you are left with 163,000,000

the fox and globo deals alone are a total of 160 million (100 fox and 60 globo)
then you add to that deals in strong markets such as canada, england, australia, deals with big companies such as televisa in mexico, and the rest of the world.

the ufc will not live or die by ppv numbers. their international expansion is the thing to look at. their deal with globo was for 3 million just 3 years ago and now it is for 60. if the ufc can strongly push their brand in a few markets in europe/asia and get big tv deals out of them, they could do without ppvs.

 

with the significant growth in overseas revenues It may help Zuffa survive without ppv if it had to but that's not really an adequate replacement.

Revenue from brazil and other markets should be an addition not looked at as a potential replacement.

PPV revenue comes mostly from the United States and to a lesser degree Canada and an even lesser degreee australia/new zealand... so the replacement for Zuffa's ppv revenue has to come from those markets otherwise it's really a loss of a revenue stream.

6 million buys generates roughly 300m in total revenue (roughly half of that is zuffa revenue) but Im sure Zuffa values that revenue stream as what that product generates in total (300m) even if they only get half.

So Zuffa would be looking for up to 300m primarily from the USA to adequately replace that revenue stream... not from brazil or anywhere else.

Only a major domestic TV partner like Fox or an in house network like Fight Pass would be able to do that.


I totally agree. there is no way the current partners in US/canada/australia/new zealand would cover for the over 160 million in zuffa revenue that the ufc made from ppvs in those markets. the contracts would have to almost double. I can see a major fee increase with jones, velasquez, rousey, etc being featured on free tv, but doubling the deal is probably too much to ask.

my point was that in the general picture, if the ufc as a business would struggle with let's say 1 million less ppv buys in 2014 while getting good tv deals in germany and china. I think they would be ecstatic about that.

Btw, I really hope fight pass becomes really popular and they start offering ppvs on it for an increased monthly fee (around 30). I pay more than 100 for a TV package and literally turn on my TV only for UFC and NFL. Obviously it is not gonna happen as long as have deals with ppv providers.
1/11/14 4:34 PM
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Chromium
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saddamhugevein - 

I'm no shill but seriously...

Who the fuck cares?

Just enjoy the fights ffs.


saddamhugevein - I seriously don't know what OPs issue is..I could not care if after the fights Dana'Bjorn and bob arum go to a Turkish bath and copulate.

Why Care?

Why?
Why?
Why? Phone Post 3.0

If you don't care, I would advise you skip to the next thread. You seem awfully serious about not caring about something.

1/11/14 5:45 PM
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FETT_GayFerPayNINJA
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So has there been a single poster who actually agrees with OP that zuffas PPV model is "collapse"ing??? Phone Post 3.0
1/11/14 6:06 PM
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Mufasatheking
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Haulport - 
JimmersonzGlove - 

1.1 million is worrisome? That's awesome that they were able to pop a number that big.


It is extremely worrisome in the big picture. I was surprised at the number (I predicted 950k) but we'll see if 1.1mm is actually true. It would not shock me that it is inflated...

I dont believe so, thats one of Andersons highes PPV buys but this time it was because of Weidman, the two other biggest draws were Brock and Chuck. Having another dominant white american champ will mean a lot of ppvs buys. Jones is doing pretty well as well.

Cain is doing surprisingly low. Hendricks could be a draw. I dont think LW or below will ever be that much of a draw
1/11/14 7:59 PM
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Blazing Knees
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kalt - I bet it will be revised down to 500k or less. No way it did 1.1 million buys, never mind the slightly raised price. These tentative estimates always turn out wrong.

UFC is making bad business decisions now. It's loaded with 'yes men' who won't tell dana no or offer any alternative ideas or criticize anything. "Awesome idea Dana, hell yea" is the only thing said over there. And Dana will always cite previous success as the reason why current plans will turn out profitable. Bad mistake.

Oversaturating the market with events is a horrible idea, and now they're oversaturating the talent pool as well. I hope they realize and correct their mistake before it's too late. They probably think they're "too big to fail" now but that is never the case and the worst business fallacy you can ever make.

If you don't like the UFC, that's fine. But this post is just bullshit lies and conjecture.YOu don't work for the UFC and have no idea who Dana is surrounded by

There's no oversauturation of anything, I will take in all the fights that I can that the UFC puts out there and saturation of fighters is just fine too, Ithink everyone deserves a shot and a job doing what they want.

The UFC has provided a lot of jobs, opportunities, fight cards, ppv's and entertainment to millions, I see no reason for your negativity at all other than piss on something that's working pretty well for me as a fan.

1/11/14 8:16 PM
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Blazing Knees
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FETT_GayFerPayNINJA - So has there been a single poster who actually agrees with OP that zuffas PPV model is "collapse"ing??? Phone Post 3.0

The only thing that collapsed is this thread and the OP's pride.

1/11/14 8:24 PM
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devils advocate
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hey look, drooling retard made another thread


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