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UnderGround Forums >> The COLLAPSE of the UFC's PPV Model


1/9/14 4:55 PM
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SevenLeggedSpider
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Total PPVs are DOWN 5% not up. The avg per event is up which is meaningless since there were less events in in 2013 than 2011.

 

Looking at that chart, would you say UFC ppv #'s are trending up towards the average, or trending down from the average?

1/9/14 4:56 PM
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dabigchet
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Haulport -
dabigchet - 
SevenLeggedSpider - 
dabigchet - 2nd highest PPV in the history of the promotion. second year of increases in row. yes, haulport, this is especially worrisome. brilliant analysis as usual.


tell me braniac, how exactly is this chart a counterpoint?

the second biggest PPV of all time was only a couple weeks ago. PPV business is up for 3 years in a row DESPITE a BIG increase of free and basic cable fights when compared to the lesnar years.

it is ridiculous to look at that and call it "The COLLAPSE of the UFC's PPV Model". don't you agree?

You can't even read a chart. The AVG is up three years in a row anfter a HUGE drop. The TOTAL number (i.e. the "PPV Business") is only up a fraction y/y.

You can't even read a two-line Line Chart and you are calling people names?????
here is another one. Nothing in your reply refutes what I said. Up 2 years in a row is a "collapse" to you. that is retarded, deep down inside, you HAVE to know that. dig deep and own up that it was a dumb thing to say. It will be chicken soup for your soul. Phone Post 3.0
1/9/14 4:59 PM
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Snayke13
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Curious how bar/pub buy rates are accounted for?
Like was said earlier they have declining #s the last few years while doing more marketting and expanding. Is it possible more people now than before are goin out to watch it because more places are showing it? Just a thought.

Plus...that whole economic collapse lol Phone Post 3.0
1/9/14 4:59 PM
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Haulport - 
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RicGillespie - 2013's numbers better then 2012's or 11's and people are saying it it collapsing? Seems like it's starting to rebound from the switch from moving off of Spike to FS1.

No. 2013 edged out 2012 but were 5% lower than 2012 which were 24% lower than the avg of 2009-2010.

There were 3 less ppv events. Average buyers per event increased. Try to spin it as a negative all you want but it is an increase with the money they get from the Fox shows.

This thread is a failure, just as expected.

There was a 17% increase in PPV buys since 2011 and somehow this is considered a collapse. Way to be.

Another one who can't read charts. Total PPVs are DOWN 5% not up. The avg per event is up which is meaningless since there were less events in in 2013 than 2011.

If you people can't read a basic chart I don't even know what to say....

Sorry buddy, it's seems like you aren't even to comprehend the meaning of your own numbers.

Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011 which as you say " is meaningless since there were LESS events in in 2013 than 2011." You have said it yourself, yet that's your point of argument?

How can you compare total PPVs in 2011 to 2013 when there were 3 LESS events? That's some terrible analysis right there. AVG PPV per event is the lead indicator you need to focus on.
1/9/14 5:02 PM
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Haulport
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HP, do you put any emphasis on the decline a couple years ago on the huge amount of main event injuries?


Nah. I see it as massive product fatigue and a lack of big stars that are the main thing that propels almost all sports.
1/9/14 5:05 PM
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SevenLeggedSpider
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Haulport - 
SevenLeggedSpider - 

HP, do you put any emphasis on the decline a couple years ago on the huge amount of main event injuries?


Nah. I see it as massive product fatigue and a lack of big stars that are the main thing that propels almost all sports.

That's kind of my point.

BJ Penn retired(although he's making a comeback)

Brock Lesnar retired.

I believe both of those happened around 2011.

And most of the main event injuries were big names as they were "main eventing".

1/9/14 5:06 PM
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Haulport
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RicGillespie - 2013's numbers better then 2012's or 11's and people are saying it it collapsing? Seems like it's starting to rebound from the switch from moving off of Spike to FS1.

No. 2013 edged out 2012 but were 5% lower than 2012 which were 24% lower than the avg of 2009-2010.

There were 3 less ppv events. Average buyers per event increased. Try to spin it as a negative all you want but it is an increase with the money they get from the Fox shows.

This thread is a failure, just as expected.

There was a 17% increase in PPV buys since 2011 and somehow this is considered a collapse. Way to be.

Another one who can't read charts. Total PPVs are DOWN 5% not up. The avg per event is up which is meaningless since there were less events in in 2013 than 2011.

If you people can't read a basic chart I don't even know what to say....

Sorry buddy, it's seems like you aren't even to comprehend the meaning of your own numbers.

Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011 which as you say " is meaningless since there were LESS events in in 2013 than 2011." You have said it yourself, yet that's your point of argument?

How can you compare total PPVs in 2011 to 2013 when there were 3 LESS events? That's some terrible analysis right there. AVG PPV per event is the lead indicator you need to focus on.

No it is not since we are talking about the total PPV business. The total is what matters to revenues and the avg is skewed by reducing the number of events. We are looking at PPV revenues. They are down from 2011. saying the avg is up for two years is a red herring.
1/9/14 5:07 PM
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Haulport
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SevenLeggedSpider - 
Haulport - 
SevenLeggedSpider - 

HP, do you put any emphasis on the decline a couple years ago on the huge amount of main event injuries?


Nah. I see it as massive product fatigue and a lack of big stars that are the main thing that propels almost all sports.

That's kind of my point.

BJ Penn retired(although he's making a comeback)

Brock Lesnar retired.

I believe both of those happened around 2011.

And most of the main event injuries were big names as they were "main eventing".


Right but I see the problem as Zuffa's lack of desire to create stars. We are basically saying the same thing but I am attributing the problem to a strategy and not just injury happenstance.
1/9/14 5:09 PM
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Haulport - 
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RicGillespie - 2013's numbers better then 2012's or 11's and people are saying it it collapsing? Seems like it's starting to rebound from the switch from moving off of Spike to FS1.

No. 2013 edged out 2012 but were 5% lower than 2012 which were 24% lower than the avg of 2009-2010.

There were 3 less ppv events. Average buyers per event increased. Try to spin it as a negative all you want but it is an increase with the money they get from the Fox shows.

This thread is a failure, just as expected.

There was a 17% increase in PPV buys since 2011 and somehow this is considered a collapse. Way to be.

Another one who can't read charts. Total PPVs are DOWN 5% not up. The avg per event is up which is meaningless since there were less events in in 2013 than 2011.

If you people can't read a basic chart I don't even know what to say....

Sorry buddy, it's seems like you aren't even to comprehend the meaning of your own numbers.

Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011 which as you say " is meaningless since there were LESS events in in 2013 than 2011." You have said it yourself, yet that's your point of argument?

How can you compare total PPVs in 2011 to 2013 when there were 3 LESS events? That's some terrible analysis right there. AVG PPV per event is the lead indicator you need to focus on.

No it is not since we are talking about the total PPV business. The total is what matters to revenues and the avg is skewed by reducing the number of events. We are looking at PPV revenues. They are down from 2011. saying the avg is up for two years is a red herring.

Your analysis is skewed and is riddled with agenda.

OP - Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011!

Common sense - There were 3 less events held than in 2011, so you cannot use that comparison. A more meaningful comparison would be average PPV buys per event, which have increased 17% since 2011.

OP - There were 3 less events held than in 2011, so that is a meaningless comparison.

Do you not see how comparing total PPV numbers between 2 years with a different number of events is not a meaningful analysis of an industry which has seen an average increase in PPV buys in that time of 17%?

This isn't the doom and gloom story you're trying hard to make it seem like.
1/9/14 5:09 PM
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SevenLeggedSpider
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Snayke13 - Curious how bar/pub buy rates are accounted for?
Like was said earlier they have declining #s the last few years while doing more marketting and expanding. Is it possible more people now than before are goin out to watch it because more places are showing it? Just a thought.

Plus...that whole economic collapse lol Phone Post 3.0

That's a good variable bring up Snayke13.

 

Also increasing 168 up $5 might have decreased the individual home buys, but also could very well have increased the bar ppv buys.

 

As it stands right now the numbers aren't drastic in either direction for me to care that much.

 

What I think is being overlooked, is HP wants better mma. He's right too. UFC is all about the brand and not fighters. UFC is all about making money, not about creating the most exciting fights possible.  

 

I will tell you this, if UFC did tournaments, superfights, changed the rules to allow headbutts and kicking of a downed fighter, the ppv numbers certainly wouldn't be on a decline.

1/9/14 5:12 PM
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Haulport
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MMALOGIC - 
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MMALOGIC - 
kungfugrip - is it safe to say the ufc is making more money now then they did 5 years ago in non-ppv items?

The tv deal must bring in lots of money. All of these events bring in lots of gate money also. Add to this, the expansion overseas and other countries around the world.

The number of huge ppv events are less, but I'm guessing the bottom dollar is much higher

Finally, I dont see the ufc cutting corners or taking cheat ways to keep things going.

Zuffa has record total revenues in 2013.


Since Zuffa is a private company and all their deals are nothing more than PR releases you CONVENIENTLY can't prove what you are saying so please be quiet...

the same guy you use to cite your ppv numbers from will confirm that in 2013 Zuffa pulled record total revenues.


And he has zero proof of either. This is all conjecture but I doubt Zuffa would be lying (thru Meltzer) about such shitty PPV numbers...
Meltzer doesn't get his numbers from Zuffa fool. He gets them from the PPV companies. He gets initial projections then adjusts them over and over as the real numbers come in.

Your thread makes no sense. You post a bunch of PPV numbers then you question your own source when it conveniences you? And this doesn't look like any sort of 'collapse'. This may be under performance from YOUR expectations but that is all. Zuffa seems to be doing much better than I thought with PPV. Having said that I am sure one day their cable PPV will cease to be their primary source of revenue. But they are already preparing for that day. Phone Post 3.0

Another Fly!

Namecalling is all you fellas seem to have up your sleeves. You don't know where Meltzer gets his numbers from. You just know what he says. And as far as using his numbers and then questioning them, that is just good reporting and logic. I seriously doubt the UFC would be releasing awesome gate numbers and then letting Meltzer tell everyone their PPV numbers suck and not correct him. So I am more inclined to believe bad news than good news when it comes to Zuffa disinformation.

If you can't understand that then I can't help you...
Both Dave Meltzer and Bryan Alvarez described how they get their PPV numbers on their old eyada show. They even gave out the different phone numbers they called because some PPV companies gave that info out to the press. They call various companies and get projections until more concrete numbers come trickling in. That is why Dave will adjust his estimations as much as several months after the PPV date.

This thread is such a tremendous backfire. Phone Post 3.0

What a canard. So? They call people and get their numbers. And who do they call to get total revs for Zuffa? Certainly not the same sources. And certainly not the same level of reliability. Which was my point to MMALOGIC. he said that the same guy who supplied the ppv numbers is the same guy who said all time record revs. That is like saying that you went to Stop & Shop and bought an apple that came from Thailand and an orange that came from Mexico but you should expect the same quality because it's Stop & Shop.

So what is your point?
1/9/14 5:15 PM
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Haulport
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RicGillespie - 2013's numbers better then 2012's or 11's and people are saying it it collapsing? Seems like it's starting to rebound from the switch from moving off of Spike to FS1.

No. 2013 edged out 2012 but were 5% lower than 2012 which were 24% lower than the avg of 2009-2010.

There were 3 less ppv events. Average buyers per event increased. Try to spin it as a negative all you want but it is an increase with the money they get from the Fox shows.

This thread is a failure, just as expected.

There was a 17% increase in PPV buys since 2011 and somehow this is considered a collapse. Way to be.

Another one who can't read charts. Total PPVs are DOWN 5% not up. The avg per event is up which is meaningless since there were less events in in 2013 than 2011.

If you people can't read a basic chart I don't even know what to say....

Sorry buddy, it's seems like you aren't even to comprehend the meaning of your own numbers.

Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011 which as you say " is meaningless since there were LESS events in in 2013 than 2011." You have said it yourself, yet that's your point of argument?

How can you compare total PPVs in 2011 to 2013 when there were 3 LESS events? That's some terrible analysis right there. AVG PPV per event is the lead indicator you need to focus on.

No it is not since we are talking about the total PPV business. The total is what matters to revenues and the avg is skewed by reducing the number of events. We are looking at PPV revenues. They are down from 2011. saying the avg is up for two years is a red herring.

Your analysis is skewed and is riddled with agenda.

OP - Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011!

Common sense - There were 3 less events held than in 2011, so you cannot use that comparison. A more meaningful comparison would be average PPV buys per event, which have increased 17% since 2011.

OP - There were 3 less events held than in 2011, so that is a meaningless comparison.

Do you not see how comparing total PPV numbers between 2 years with a different number of events is not a meaningful analysis of an industry which has seen an average increase in PPV buys in that time of 17%?

This isn't the doom and gloom story you're trying hard to make it seem like.

What r u even talking about? We are talking about TOTAL PPV REVENUES. Do you understand that? That is what the discussion is about. Those are DOWN as reflected by the lack of TOTAL BUYS.

You talking about avg per event and how you can't compare years MAKES ZERO SENSE.

You might as well say that you corner store stopped opening on Saturdays and revenues are down but that's okay because you can't compare this year's revs to previous years because they were open on Sat.

Preposterous.
1/9/14 5:17 PM
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tenchu
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AndersonSilvasMoney - I picture Haulport seeing the 1.1 million number, plugging it into this excel sheet, seeing the upward trend and saying "fuck it, I want to make the thread anyway." Phone Post 3.0

LOL. I pictured that as well, seeing that he admtted he was waiting for the PPV numbers so he could post the disappointment.

At least he doesn't hide his bias.

I hate the PPV model and welcome a steady decline in PPV buys if it led to a model similar to the WWE Network.

But calling it a collapse in light of the recent uptick and other insights people have shared? Come on.
1/9/14 5:25 PM
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Herring In A Fur Coat
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AndersonSilvasMoney - I picture Haulport seeing the 1.1 million number, plugging it into this excel sheet, seeing the upward trend and saying "fuck it, I want to make the thread anyway." Phone Post 3.0

LOL, this is exactly how it went.

1/9/14 5:28 PM
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With Anderson and GSP not going to fight in 2014, the total number will decline this year I think it's safe to say. Phone Post 3.0
1/9/14 5:33 PM
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IAmNotImpressedbyYourStocktonSlap
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Haulport, why do your arguments always suck?

1/9/14 5:35 PM
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tenchu
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RKing85 - With Anderson and GSP not going to fight in 2014, the total number will decline this year I think it's safe to say. Phone Post 3.0

Likely.
1/9/14 5:37 PM
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Tomato Can
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"Right but I see the problem as Zuffa's lack of desire to create stars."

lolwut
1/9/14 5:39 PM
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BigSleep
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Haulport - 
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Steve4192 - It looks to me like they bottomed out in 2011 and are slowly working their way back up. Their buys/PPV have gone up from 405K in 2011 to 449K in 2012 to 473K in 2013. Call me crazy, but that looks like anything but a collapse.

Let's be honest. The whole Brock Lesnar phenomenon was an outlier and had very little to do with the UFC's marketing. Brock entered the company as a fully-formed PPV draw. If you take out Brock's PPV sales from 2008-2010, that peak would look very similar to the current PPV environment. The wouldn't be any talk of 'collapse'.

VU This is true, Brock is the one who came in already a star and blew PPV numbers up.  Take him out and the numbers are much closer to what they are now and what they were before Brock. 


That doesn't miss the point completely at all
/sarcasm

An exciting GSP and Brock are what peaked the UFC but Zuffa has no interest in creating those kind of stars (as the WWE has done for decades) regardless of how poorly their PPV numbers and ratings are. Frank and Lorenzo are terrified of bettering their product and that resulting in stars they can't crush within a week. So they have taken to horizontal expansion to fill the gaps in their poor strategy.

With where they were in 2010 and then the fox deal following that the UFC should have revenues 3 times what they have now. The fact that they MAYBE have "record revenues" which are probably a hair above their 2010 revs is a total disaster and every member of Zuffa senior management knows this...

One part of this I strongly disagree with that a lot of people seem to parrot when talking about Zuffa- "Zuffa has no interest in creating those kinds of stars".

Surely they do? Look at what they did with Ronda. There is no way that they are not creating stars by design, is there? Of course they want stars.

You can't say "Dana wants to be a star" because those aren't mutually exclusive. If you asked Dana if he wanted 3 Brocks wouldn't he say "Of course!"?
1/9/14 5:40 PM
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RicGillespie - 2013's numbers better then 2012's or 11's and people are saying it it collapsing? Seems like it's starting to rebound from the switch from moving off of Spike to FS1.

No. 2013 edged out 2012 but were 5% lower than 2012 which were 24% lower than the avg of 2009-2010.

There were 3 less ppv events. Average buyers per event increased. Try to spin it as a negative all you want but it is an increase with the money they get from the Fox shows.

This thread is a failure, just as expected.

There was a 17% increase in PPV buys since 2011 and somehow this is considered a collapse. Way to be.

Another one who can't read charts. Total PPVs are DOWN 5% not up. The avg per event is up which is meaningless since there were less events in in 2013 than 2011.

If you people can't read a basic chart I don't even know what to say....

Sorry buddy, it's seems like you aren't even to comprehend the meaning of your own numbers.

Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011 which as you say " is meaningless since there were LESS events in in 2013 than 2011." You have said it yourself, yet that's your point of argument?

How can you compare total PPVs in 2011 to 2013 when there were 3 LESS events? That's some terrible analysis right there. AVG PPV per event is the lead indicator you need to focus on.

No it is not since we are talking about the total PPV business. The total is what matters to revenues and the avg is skewed by reducing the number of events. We are looking at PPV revenues. They are down from 2011. saying the avg is up for two years is a red herring.

Your analysis is skewed and is riddled with agenda.

OP - Total PPVs are down 5% since 2011!

Common sense - There were 3 less events held than in 2011, so you cannot use that comparison. A more meaningful comparison would be average PPV buys per event, which have increased 17% since 2011.

OP - There were 3 less events held than in 2011, so that is a meaningless comparison.

Do you not see how comparing total PPV numbers between 2 years with a different number of events is not a meaningful analysis of an industry which has seen an average increase in PPV buys in that time of 17%?

This isn't the doom and gloom story you're trying hard to make it seem like.

What r u even talking about? We are talking about TOTAL PPV REVENUES. Do you understand that? That is what the discussion is about. Those are DOWN as reflected by the lack of TOTAL BUYS.

You talking about avg per event and how you can't compare years MAKES ZERO SENSE.

You might as well say that you corner store stopped opening on Saturdays and revenues are down but that's okay because you can't compare this year's revs to previous years because they were open on Sat.

Preposterous.

Is it meant to be some groundbreaking analysis to seethat TOTAL PPVs are down from 2011? No it isnt. Of course they are down, they held 3 less events, how is that at all shocking?

Is a shop owner meant to declare insolvency based on a decrease in total revenues of 5% from a previous year despite being open for business 19% less? No, because they have seen a marked decrease in their costs of operation (fixed costs notwithstanding)yet their revenues have not seen any significant decline to justify being open for that additional 19% of the year.

You're trying to suggest the PPV model is collapsing. It clearly is not, despite the way you're trying to spin these numbers.

YES, TOTAL PPVs are down since 2011. Does that have any significant take home meaning at all? No, for a few reasons:

1) They staged 19% less PPV events, yet only saw a 5% decrease in total revenue. You completely ignore they have seen an improved success on an event by event basis in 2013 over 2011 to the effect of 17%.

2) Zuffa's business has restructred significantly since the FOX deal to accomodate far more free to air live events, to which they are compensated by FOX for. Less PPV events were staged in 2013 because they needed to accomodate FOX. This is hardly an indictment on the PPV model.

Do you agree that using the fact that TOTAL PPV numbers dropping 5% since 2011 as the SOLE indicator and argument for why the PPV model has "collapsed" is extremely short sighted? Because that is proposterous.
1/9/14 5:42 PM
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FETT_GayFerPayNINJA
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SevenLeggedSpider -

I think the point most people are trying to make is that this thread would be more relevent and accurate if it was made in 2011, when the decline was at an all time low. 

Which leads me to my unanswered question-do you think the huge number of main event injuries had any effect on the decline of ppv #s in 2011?

Of COURSE injuries had an impact.

Of course Haulport wont aknowledge that and will keep ignoring his own chart that shows PPV rebounding over the past 2 years. Phone Post 3.0
1/9/14 5:43 PM
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Vittorio Blaze
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This dork princess heliport strikes again with his anti zuffa thread, definitely not TOTY Phone Post 3.0
1/9/14 5:45 PM
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Handsome Jack
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Rambo John J - 

 

 

 
 

Holy shit lol

Early contender for Gif Of The Year. Phone Post 3.0
1/9/14 5:46 PM
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Haulport
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Herring In A Fur Coat - 
AndersonSilvasMoney - I picture Haulport seeing the 1.1 million number, plugging it into this excel sheet, seeing the upward trend and saying "fuck it, I want to make the thread anyway." Phone Post 3.0

LOL, this is exactly how it went.


There is no upward trend. You have a slight year to year increase at the base of a mountain basically.

I know you are too smart to actually believe that Herring so I will just assume this is a troll from you.
1/9/14 5:47 PM
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Haulport
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IAmNotImpressedbyYourStocktonSlap - 

Haulport, why do your arguments always suck?


If by "suck" you mean "attacked by shills, trolls and nincompoops" then I'd say: because of the nature of the attackers...

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