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UnderGround Forums >> WWE stock down 45% today


5/16/14 10:05 PM
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VTCO
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Don't get me wrong, the aftermath of the stock tumbling back to earth after a few months of crazy overvaluation is ugly, but when the dust settles I doubt WWE will be looking to try and make the company private again.
5/16/14 10:07 PM
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much
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Chromium - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - 
RKing85 - down to $11.15 right now.

It was at $20 on Wednesday.

Fight Pass I have heard people say is just under 300k subscribers. WWE Network is probably around 700k at this point in time. And also that's only USA (although people outside of the USA have found ways around it and do have the network)
I do t think Fight Pass has that many, my
Guess is 100-150. Dana talked about in a scrum where he hinted it was just over 100k subscribers. WWE really needs to stack PPVs in Sept to keep all the people that just subscribed for WM, that month will really determine if this was smart or a dumb move by Vince. Phone Post 3.0

To be sure, FightPass only needed ~100k to break even and was a much, much smaller risk for the UFC while laying the groundwork for potential future expansion.

WWE Network needs over 1 million to break even and the risk for them is enormous.

 


This is the reason why UFC didn't do PPVs free with fight pass, it was a HUGE risk. I remember when it first happened everyone on here was giving UFC shit about not doing it but it didn't make sense for UFC to risk $100+ mil in revenue per year on a gamble like a subscription network. WWE just lost huge money by doing that in the short term.

Now I will say in the end I think the subscription network is the way to go but UFC is building a base of members before they move over big PPVs to it. I think over the long haul it will pay off but it might take a few years to get up to that many members.

WWE doesn't really need the 1 mil + members that people are reporting. If you read the press release today it said:

As shown below, the Company estimates that the WWE Network, on a global basis, will require 1.3 million to 1.4 million subscribers at "steady state" for the WWE Network's incremental OIBDA to offset the complete cannibalization of the Company's Pay-Per-View and SVOD businesses. At 1.3 million to 1.4 million subscribers, the Company's Network segment, which includes the results of WWE's Network, Pay-Per-View and SVOD businesses, would generate OIBDA results of $40 million (+/- 10%), which is on par with the OIBDA profits generated by the Company's Pay-Per-View and SVOD businesses in 2012.

Now they are taking 2012 numbers which were higher then 2013 and that 1.3-1.4 million number is actually if they lost EVERY PPV sale they made. They are still offering PPV on some cable systems and if we use WM for example they still sold 400,000 PPVs. Now WM normally sells around 1,000,000 so lets say they keep 40% of the old PPV numbers, then that 1.3 number is 720,000 members which they are almost at now. It's not as bad as some people think. Now if all cable systems cut WWE off completely and didn't allow them to sell PPVs, then they will have an issue in the short term.

It's interesting to see how this plays out and should have huge ramifications on the PPV business as a whole, especially with regards to WWE/UFC/TNA/Boxing, etc....
5/16/14 10:15 PM
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much
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JeffersonDArcyChoke - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much -
RKing85 - down to $11.15 right now.

It was at $20 on Wednesday.

Fight Pass I have heard people say is just under 300k subscribers. WWE Network is probably around 700k at this point in time. And also that's only USA (although people outside of the USA have found ways around it and do have the network)
I do t think Fight Pass has that many, my
Guess is 100-150. Dana talked about in a scrum where he hinted it was just over 100k subscribers. WWE really needs to stack PPVs in Sept to keep all the people that just subscribed for WM, that month will really determine if this was smart or a dumb move by Vince. Phone Post 3.0
The price point could retain.

People are lazy.

This is why so many who signed up for Hulu Plus yet don't use it are still paying the 7.95 a month.

It's cheap enough you don't notice it and since it's cheap you aren't in a rush to cancel.

At 10 a month, you can tell yourself you may watch it again later, etc.

If this were 20 or more a month (it could go up), it would definitely cause folks to get out once they've watched old stuff and decided they aren't into new stuff.

A lot of subscribers are old fans who got it to relive nostalgia and these fans haven't become fans of the current product.

RAW ratings prove that the network hasn't converted anyone who wasn't already a fan of today's product into one.

I think retaining the 600K is easy with a low price point and I think the hard part is how to increase this.

You already have every PPV ever and gave them WrestleMania so what could WWE possibly add that suddenly will draw in new subscribers?

It won't be game shows and Legends House 2. Phone Post 3.0

I agree, I think my biggest fear and whats keeping me from buying more stock is what happens in Sept. WM was in March so those 6 month subscriptions are up in Sept and I am scared that 650,000 number might be 400,000 if people cancel. I read WWE is planning on stacking the PPVs in the fall with Brock Lesnar of all people to keep people paying the $10 a month. I don't see them hitting 1,000,000 members to be honest which was the goal but they might get to around 700,000 and next year at WM they should be able to eclipse the 1,000,000 mark. WWE needs to come up with something else on the subscription channel to make them people become members.

Recently I heard they were offering anyone $25 in WWE store if you got a friend to sign up and your friend also got $25 which is a cool promo. They will need to keep doing this to make it work. Maybe come out with an affiliate program like they do in a lot of industries and sign up the Wrestling News Sites on an affiliate agreement with rev share. I am sure a lot of those sites would love to get an extra check for a few grand a month. Figure $1-$2 rev share per month per member and that can be a nice check for them. UFC could do the same thing if they wanted, but they don't even do affiliate programs for Ultimate Poker so I doubt they will for Fight Pass. Yes I know about regulation for NV gaming companies but they still don't even offer an affiliate program for licensed affiliates.

Not sure what else WWE could do, maybe pay Stone Cold money and have him broadcast his podcast online as a weekly show. Cost would be cheap and they could just have a guest fly to LA to do it and make Steve a studio out there. I am sure I could come up with more ideas if given more time but right now WWE is dropping the ball when it comes to promoting the channel. Vince will figure it out though, I have faith in him.
5/16/14 10:17 PM
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RKing85 - With the six month commitment, the WWE network can only go up in viewership between now and august 24.

Meltzer had said the Fight pass break even was around 100k and that they got almost 3 times that. That's where I got the 300k figure for Fight Pass.

I think fight pass will probably top out around 400k for the next few years at least.

When the wwe network goes worldwide, they will be at least 3 times that. Phone Post 3.0

Can you link me to where he said that? I dont doubt you at all but just wanted to read it. Only reason I came up with 100k number was Danas scrum when he was talking about it.
5/16/14 10:21 PM
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6MonthsKickCheckTraining - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much -
jwistead -
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Lost $10,000 or so, not a good morning :(

Purchased $25,000 worth when it was at $24.80 a share a few months back expecting it to go to $30.

It's odd because people expected WWE to get around a $200 million per year TV deal which they got and the stock till tanked. Guessing people are freaking out due to the stock going down and I'd expect it to go back up a bit this afternoon. I still like the company long term.

Another thing is the company was around $11 a share mid last year and since then they added the WWE Network with 650,000 people paying $10 a month and almost doubled their TV rights fees and have not increased spending. Yet the stock is the same price, it makes no sense to me what so ever.

Might seem like uninformed advice, but don't panic. If the idea was a good one, you'll make your money back once all of the "free money" people get out. Patience.
I'm not pulling anything out, might buy more to lower my avg price I paid per share. I still think the company as a whole is far better financially then it was 6 months ago when the stock was $12 or so.
Like others said, should go up to $15-16 range in a few weeks. Phone Post 3.0
That's the way to go. Buy another 1k shares. Then your into it for 36k for 2000 shares bringing you down to an average of 18/share. When it gets back up to 20 which it will prob do next quarter. You have made back your money and are out of the red Phone Post 3.0

Thats the plan... would of rather put the extra money in bitcoin to be honest. Rumor is Ebay might add it into paypal which would drive it back over $1,000.00. Also if Amazon ever accepted it, it might jump WAY UP. Would like to recoup my money in WWE though so most likely will go that route to least get back to even on it.
5/16/14 10:23 PM
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much
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danggook - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Lost $10,000 or so, not a good morning :(

Purchased $25,000 worth when it was at $24.80 a share a few months back expecting it to go to $30.

It's odd because people expected WWE to get around a $200 million per year TV deal which they got and the stock till tanked. Guessing people are freaking out due to the stock going down and I'd expect it to go back up a bit this afternoon. I still like the company long term.

Another thing is the company was around $11 a share mid last year and since then they added the WWE Network with 650,000 people paying $10 a month and almost doubled their TV rights fees and have not increased spending. Yet the stock is the same price, it makes no sense to me what so ever.
Its is as if stocks are all speculative, nothing but smoke and mirrors. Phone Post 3.0

No different then sports betting or betting on a hand of black jack to me. I have no control over either as companies actual performance means nothing if people don't believe in it. So you are essentially betting on other people believing strongly as you do about a company.
5/16/14 10:25 PM
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VTCO - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - 
VTCO - 
Stephen Holder - potential sale? Vinny Mac is selling?

There were rumors earlier this year of a potential sale, and Vince himself said he was open to it in a Forbes interview, which helped push the stock price up even more.

This was end of March/early April when the stock was hitting over $30 bucks.

He wouldn't sell it for anything near it's current price. Either someone would have to come in with $2 bil + offer or Vince will hold on to it. Better chance of it being sold after Vince passes away. I could see it going private though now that the stock price is low.

The stock price has been far lower than it is right now, with less potential for future growth than the current WWE.

It doesn't make sense for the company to go private again because the stock price is back to a more realistic level. If they didn't go private many times in years past when the stock was at a similar trend, I doubt they would now.

Just like the potential number for TV rights and network subscribers, even the sale rumors were completely blown out of proportion. Vince basically said "one day" it's possible, and then out of nowhere rumors of a sale to AMC and a bunch of other suitors popped up and that wildman speculation drove the price of the stock up even more.

My logic would be Vince would borrow money now to buy up all the stock. It makes more sense for Vince to buy the stock now at $12 then it did at $30. I am sure he could raise the money but not sure he wants to.
5/16/14 11:05 PM
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I Wild Each It
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If there is one person that I would never doubt, it's Vince.
5/17/14 1:21 AM
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6MonthsKickCheckTraining
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much -
6MonthsKickCheckTraining - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much -
jwistead -
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Lost $10,000 or so, not a good morning :(

Purchased $25,000 worth when it was at $24.80 a share a few months back expecting it to go to $30.

It's odd because people expected WWE to get around a $200 million per year TV deal which they got and the stock till tanked. Guessing people are freaking out due to the stock going down and I'd expect it to go back up a bit this afternoon. I still like the company long term.

Another thing is the company was around $11 a share mid last year and since then they added the WWE Network with 650,000 people paying $10 a month and almost doubled their TV rights fees and have not increased spending. Yet the stock is the same price, it makes no sense to me what so ever.

Might seem like uninformed advice, but don't panic. If the idea was a good one, you'll make your money back once all of the "free money" people get out. Patience.
I'm not pulling anything out, might buy more to lower my avg price I paid per share. I still think the company as a whole is far better financially then it was 6 months ago when the stock was $12 or so.
Like others said, should go up to $15-16 range in a few weeks. Phone Post 3.0
That's the way to go. Buy another 1k shares. Then your into it for 36k for 2000 shares bringing you down to an average of 18/share. When it gets back up to 20 which it will prob do next quarter. You have made back your money and are out of the red Phone Post 3.0

Thats the plan... would of rather put the extra money in bitcoin to be honest. Rumor is Ebay might add it into paypal which would drive it back over $1,000.00. Also if Amazon ever accepted it, it might jump WAY UP. Would like to recoup my money in WWE though so most likely will go that route to least get back to even on it.
Man, bitcoin is wayyyyyy to volatile. Especially with the legal troubles. Could be horrible or could be a gold mine I guess. It has too much risk and its success really relies on a few key players implementing it as a currency. Phone Post 3.0
5/17/14 4:43 AM
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cadamb41
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The UFC is f*cking you guys. As if boxing wasn't enough
5/17/14 8:43 PM
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UGK4Life
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http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/thread/2322948/Vince-McMahon-no-longer-a-billionaire/?&page=1 You Straight jacked my thread!
5/17/14 9:37 PM
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DanHendersonsDentures
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UGK4Life - http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/thread/2322948/Vince-McMahon-no-longer-a-billionaire/?&page=1 You Straight jacked my thread!

......Actually you straight jacked his thread.......


Your thread time : 18 hours ago


OPs thread time : 1 day ago


5/17/14 9:46 PM
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ghost842
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What company do you guys use to trade online? Phone Post 3.0
5/17/14 9:49 PM
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Reggie Warren Jr
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Reggie Warren Jr, The Man

What is a Stock?

 

5/17/14 9:57 PM
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CavRyda
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I Wild Each It - If there is one person that I would never doubt, it's Vince.

.

5/23/14 6:00 PM
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woodstainedglass
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ghost842 - What company do you guys use to trade online? Phone Post 3.0

I use etrade. 

5/23/14 6:04 PM
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TBA11
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Lost $10,000 or so, not a good morning :(

Purchased $25,000 worth when it was at $24.80 a share a few months back expecting it to go to $30.

It's odd because people expected WWE to get around a $200 million per year TV deal which they got and the stock till tanked. Guessing people are freaking out due to the stock going down and I'd expect it to go back up a bit this afternoon. I still like the company long term.

Another thing is the company was around $11 a share mid last year and since then they added the WWE Network with 650,000 people paying $10 a month and almost doubled their TV rights fees and have not increased spending. Yet the stock is the same price, it makes no sense to me what so ever.
It's all about the Wall Street fashion show. If you truly believe in the company and their future, average down and buy more on a down day. Phone Post 3.0
5/23/14 7:42 PM
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tenchu
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YouCantHandleMyRiddum - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Lost $10,000 or so, not a good morning :(

Purchased $25,000 worth when it was at $24.80 a share a few months back expecting it to go to $30.

It's odd because people expected WWE to get around a $200 million per year TV deal which they got and the stock till tanked. Guessing people are freaking out due to the stock going down and I'd expect it to go back up a bit this afternoon. I still like the company long term.

Another thing is the company was around $11 a share mid last year and since then they added the WWE Network with 650,000 people paying $10 a month and almost doubled their TV rights fees and have not increased spending. Yet the stock is the same price, it makes no sense to me what so ever.

Welcome to the wonderful world of speculation.

The Stock Market is For Suckers - Mark Cuban

http://blogmaverick.com/2006/01/03/the-stock-market-is-for-suckers/
5/23/14 8:09 PM
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If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much
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tenchu -
YouCantHandleMyRiddum - 
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Lost $10,000 or so, not a good morning :(

Purchased $25,000 worth when it was at $24.80 a share a few months back expecting it to go to $30.

It's odd because people expected WWE to get around a $200 million per year TV deal which they got and the stock till tanked. Guessing people are freaking out due to the stock going down and I'd expect it to go back up a bit this afternoon. I still like the company long term.

Another thing is the company was around $11 a share mid last year and since then they added the WWE Network with 650,000 people paying $10 a month and almost doubled their TV rights fees and have not increased spending. Yet the stock is the same price, it makes no sense to me what so ever.

Welcome to the wonderful world of speculation.

The Stock Market is For Suckers - Mark Cuban

http://blogmaverick.com/2006/01/03/the-stock-market-is-for-suckers/
People who invest their life savings into stock market, this would apply to. I look at it no different then betting it on a fight. It's a gamble and sometime you win and sometimes you lose. Phone Post 3.0
5/25/14 1:29 PM
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ghost842
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So what's the consensus on buying around $11? I have $1,000 I want to park somewhere. It's not a ton of money but that's the point I can afford to lose it. Phone Post 3.0

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