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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> No More NFL Bargains

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9/9/05 12:12 AM
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Edited: 09-Sep-05
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 4013

 Professional bettors have had three months to take out the value on this week's NFL card, making it very difficult to find any remaining solid plays. Bargain plays were everywhere, but they are long gone as we approach the weekend.

The Detroit Lions were a solid play at minus one vs. what should be a disappointing Green Bay Packers team. However, all value is gone at the current spread of three. This game is actually a great illustration of why professional bettors win year after year in the NFL.

The ‘sharp' players bet the Lions up to minus-two. They are now sitting on a solid situation where they can keep their position, or alternatively play back the Packers by taking plus three (plus $1.00), or the money line at plus $1.45.

Many bettors expect the New Orleans Saints will have a great deal of difficulty focusing on football after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. Not surprisingly, the Carolina Panthers have been bid up from minus 4 ½ all the way to minus seven. I am surprised how long it took for this line move to occur.

It was very clear the Panthers would get the money in this game, yet the line moved very slowly by inching up from minus-4 ½ about 10 days ago to the current level. Based on all the reports from New Orleans early last week, was any bettor going to back the Saints at plus five? A spread of 6 ½ looks to be an accurate line, and those bettors who got the favorite early are sitting pretty.

Many bettors believe the Cincinnati Bengals will contend for the AFC North division title this year. They got down early on the Bengals at minus-2 ½ and minus-three against a bad Cleveland Browns team. The line is now 3 ½, so no thank you to any tiger stripes at this price!

Similarly, the Rams look to have the 49ers completely outclassed. Based on that, savvy bettors pounded in bets at minus-three earlier this summer. The line is now 5 ½, and I have no doubt I will see bettors storming the windows to play the Rams at (gulp) minus-six at kickoff.

NFL Week 1 represented outstanding value to all the early bird bettors out there. Now that the lines have been picked apart and analyzed for months, I strongly caution all to be selective in your wagers. I typically have many games I like in any NFL weekend. However, I expect to have only a few plays against the current numbers.

NFL Week 2 is just around the corner, and there likely will be better value out there. You can bet on it! 

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