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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Barking Underdogs (Part 2)


9/15/05 4:03 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 15-Sep-05
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 4062
JoeyOddessa.com
 

History is a wonderful thing, as it has taught all of us many things. So, here's another history lesson.
In games involving two teams where both have winning records or both have losing records during the present season, the home underdog has enjoyed the greater success.

Since 1992, the home underdog has performed at a winning clip of 62.7 percent when the game involves two winning teams. That would put a fair bit of money in anyone's wallet. If I look back to the most recent seasons 2002, 2003 and 2004 anyone betting on the spread side of the home underdog involving two teams with winning records wound up with a 12-4 ATS record.

Statistics have actually shown that winless home underdogs have been a highly profitable wager, and undefeated road favorites have not. In fact, since 1993, home underdogs that are winless on the season are 42-23 ATS, 64.6%. Conversely, road favorites that are unbeaten on the season are just 3-12 ATS, 20.0%, over the same time span.

How did Team A perform last week? I know people believe that last weeks performance by any team is history, and to a point they are correct. However, time and time again I have shown that what has gone before will happen again. After all, these trends angles are all related to what happened last week, last year, last three years. So let's have a look at very recent history, and in particular, last game performances.

Home underdogs of 7 1/2 to 14 points off a loss by 14 or more points are 35-17 ATS (67.3%) +16.3 units (since 1992).

Home underdogs of 7 1/2 to 14 points off a win against a division rival are 13-5 ATS (72.2%) +7 1/2 units (since 1992).

Home underdogs playing opponents off a SU win as a favorite but failed to cover the spread are 25-9 ATS (73.5%) +15.1 units (last three years).

Home underdogs of 7 1/2 to 14 points playing opponent that passed for 150 yards or less in their last game are 16-5 ATS (76.2%) +11.8 units (since 1992).

9/15/05 11:00 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 15-Sep-05
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 325
awesome... will have to mock bet this as much as possible before laying down... thanks!!
9/23/05 10:40 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 23-Sep-05
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 346
So far this has worked wonders. Only loss last week using this was army. They again are the home, winless dawgs playing an undefeated team and up by 7 over Iowa St. going into the fourth. I got +17. Thanks for a great article.
9/23/05 11:22 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 23-Sep-05
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 348
Now I need this trend to repeat itself with New Mex St. +28 1/2. 0-3 playing a 3-0 at home. The gods favor me.
9/25/05 1:19 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 25-Sep-05 04:18 AM
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 353
thanks.. sweated it out there but was grateful for the mercy cal showed at the end... good luck

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