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Money, Business & Finance Ground >> Lets talk about gold


7/28/11 1:18 PM
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kanotoa
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There will be dips in silver, buy at $35 if you can find any metal at that price. The floor is rising so each dip will yield small floors IMO, 35,37,40,45...
7/31/11 5:55 AM
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AG_bull
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kanotoa - There will be dips in silver, buy at $35 if you can find any metal at that price. The floor is rising so each dip will yield small floors IMO, 35,37,40,45...



kanotoa - Still not too late to get in IMO. I predict $100 silver in 3 years or less. Gold will be $2000 in 18 months.

Any bears care to go out on a limb?


if silver is at $100 in 3 years will it really matter if you got in at $35 or $40? I honestly still think $82 silver is not impossible to be seen at the end of THIS YEAR (00:00:00 Jan 1 2012).

Gold is well into its bull run, it still has lots of room to go but silver has ALOT of catching up to do. I predict there will be days with $5 jumps in the price of silver.

My feel is buy as much as you can now, in a year from now you wont be worrying you didnt get the absolute low rather you will be looking at 50% + profits.
8/2/11 9:58 PM
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kanotoa
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AG_bull - 
kanotoa - There will be dips in silver, buy at $35 if you can find any metal at that price. The floor is rising so each dip will yield small floors IMO, 35,37,40,45...



kanotoa - Still not too late to get in IMO. I predict $100 silver in 3 years or less. Gold will be $2000 in 18 months.

Any bears care to go out on a limb?


if silver is at $100 in 3 years will it really matter if you got in at $35 or $40? I honestly still think $82 silver is not impossible to be seen at the end of THIS YEAR (00:00:00 Jan 1 2012).

Gold is well into its bull run, it still has lots of room to go but silver has ALOT of catching up to do. I predict there will be days with $5 jumps in the price of silver.

My feel is buy as much as you can now, in a year from now you wont be worrying you didnt get the absolute low rather you will be looking at 50% + profits.


I agree, but I like to be conservative.
8/3/11 3:31 AM
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jaywill
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 oh snap, fed got audited 16 trillion in secret loans , debt ceiling is up so QE3 is a certainty , iceland has decided they are not going to repay their debts lol. american money is tanking and eurozone isnt looking any better.  all in gold!
8/3/11 9:44 AM
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AG_bull
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kanotoa - 
AG_bull - 
kanotoa - There will be dips in silver, buy at $35 if you can find any metal at that price. The floor is rising so each dip will yield small floors IMO, 35,37,40,45...



kanotoa - Still not too late to get in IMO. I predict $100 silver in 3 years or less. Gold will be $2000 in 18 months.

Any bears care to go out on a limb?


if silver is at $100 in 3 years will it really matter if you got in at $35 or $40? I honestly still think $82 silver is not impossible to be seen at the end of THIS YEAR (00:00:00 Jan 1 2012).

Gold is well into its bull run, it still has lots of room to go but silver has ALOT of catching up to do. I predict there will be days with $5 jumps in the price of silver.

My feel is buy as much as you can now, in a year from now you wont be worrying you didnt get the absolute low rather you will be looking at 50% + profits.


I agree, but I like to be conservative.


fair enough, i started buying silver when it was in the teens (around $13-14), bought 1/3 of my total portfolio in at around $20 only to see it pullback ... kept buying in all the way up into the $30 range (basically went all in at around $30 with everything i own plus some) and in retrospect wished i had to pulled the trigger back at the $13 level :D but hindsight is 20/20 right.

That all being said the fundamentals for why i got into silver/gold haven't changed, if anything things have gotten worse. Keep buying silver and gold but mostly silver).
8/3/11 1:56 PM
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jaywill
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 how about them double gold etf'S?
8/3/11 5:43 PM
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HELWIG
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 GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD
8/3/11 8:23 PM
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RoidsGracie
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 I was planning only to purchase silver if it dipped below $40. I thought the debt ceiling been raised might have done that but silver has actually jumped in price.
8/3/11 10:47 PM
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Beezulbubba
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S. Korea just bought a billion $ worth of gold.


8/5/11 11:03 PM
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RoidsGracie
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 I've been buying silver (instead of gold) but I just read this article on the Vanguard blog and it's giving me some doubts about investing in PMs. Any thoughts OGers?

www.vanguardblog.com/2011.07.27/gold-fever.html

This morning I saw on a website that the spot price of gold had soared to $1,600 an ounce, up over 30% in the past year. What can we as investors say conclusively say about gold? Two things, I think: First, now seems exactly the wrong time to be thinking about gold as an inflation hedge. Second, now is probably not a good time to be buying gold jewelry, if such is your passion.

Among “gold bugs,” the standard argument for buying gold is the risk of financial Armageddon: If the Federal Reserve mismanages the money supply, the United States will be engulfed by hyperinflation and the dollar will be debased. Only real assets like gold will preserve their purchasing power.

Yet despite the recent stimulus that the Fed provided—whether through traditional means (low interest rates) or nontraditional approaches (asset purchases like QE1 and QE2)—inflation is not surging. The shorthand macroeconomic reason for this is simple: Consumers are still reducing debt, corporate demand for borrowing is low, and unemployment is still high. Under such circumstances, the chances of out-of-control inflation are quite remote. (What’s more, if there is an inflation hedge to be had, it looks like much of it is behind us.)

A second argument for gold is the structural change that is underway in investing. Gold is just one of numerous commodities that have surged in value as investors have moved into commodities as an asset class. So, part of the $1,600 price may be the consequence of a long-run shift in investor demand. “Why not get on the bandwagon?” is how the thinking goes.

This is the “greater fool” argument—the argument that you’ll be able to sell for $2,500 or $3,000 an ounce gold (or some other asset) you acquired at today’s prices. This would be a good rationale if your timing skills were perfect. But in a world where timing skills are quite imperfect, building a portfolio on these types of bets is like building on quicksand—dangerous.

A third argument for gold is what you might call the industrial commodities view. Gold is used in various industrial and consumer applications—jewelry, electronics—and you might believe worldwide demand is on the rise. But to believe this, you’d somehow have to argue that industrial demand will accelerate beyond what’s already reflected in the large surge in gold prices. This seems implausible.

The last time there was a surge in gold prices like today’s was the 1970s. Gold jumped from around $65 an ounce in early 1973 to $850 an ounce in early 1980—a 13-fold increase, equivalent to earning more than 40% a year on your money.* This increase occurred in an environment with actual surging inflation, as opposed to today’s scenario, which is merely the chance of surging inflation. When inflation fell in the early 1980s, spot prices fell by 55%. The price of gold returned to the $300–400 range, where it languished for decades.

Today, gold prices have moved from the low $400s in 2005 to today’s price of $1,600—a quadrupling, equivalent to a return of about 23% per year over six-plus years. My guess is that many investors have been drawn to this asset class simply because of the headline-making short-term performance. Had you bought gold six-plus years ago, you would have made more than 20% per year on your money.

Surging prices, investor regret about missing the bandwagon, a theory of why prices “must” go higher—these are the necessary elements of a bubble. A true bubble could have an even larger exponential price rise. But we won’t know until after the fact.

My own theory is that if you’re buying lots of gold today at $1,600 an ounce, you are playing to a greater-fool theme. It’s a gambler’s bet. If you do proceed on this course, make sure it is money you can afford to lose. The risk is that you could build up a position in gold at today’s prices—only to discover that it was the investor selling to you who made the right call.

* Source: Vanguard estimates from spot prices in nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) terms.


8/6/11 11:49 AM
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HELWIG
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Beezulbubba - S. Korea just bought a billion $ worth of gold.



 They saw this thread, rest assured.
8/9/11 2:44 AM
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kanotoa
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Edited: 08/09/11 2:45 AM
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see post bellow
8/9/11 2:45 AM
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kanotoa
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HELWIG - Heard two quotes today that sounded hardcore enough to make my ass think about finances."Gold has been the standard of man's wealth for over 5000 years.""People who understand gold, buy gold"So whats the deal with gold? I assume it's low risk and pretty secure to invest in? Do diamonds fall into the same category?Thanks.




LOL,

If we all could go back in time and take your advice!
8/9/11 2:49 AM
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kanotoa
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I am predicting that the price of gold will go up 10 times, ten years from the original post. If not you can dig this up and laugh at me, if the internet is still up.

I think silver might be 300 buck then.
8/15/11 1:47 PM
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Buddhadev
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kanotoa - I am predicting that the price of gold will go up 10 times, ten years from the original post. If not you can dig this up and laugh at me, if the internet is still up.

I think silver might be 300 buck then.



I honestly mostly bumped this to laugh at JustHappy2SeeU
9/8/11 11:10 AM
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cagepedia
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why gold goes up, no one knows... it is not much useful as an industrial metal or anything else for that matter.
9/8/11 12:30 PM
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HELWIG
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 "If we all could go back in time and take your advice!"

Im gonna be honest. I dont even really understand what has happened with gold.

Can you explain in a brief summary?
9/8/11 12:32 PM
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HELWIG
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 Is "My God, this gold!" a fair statement?
9/8/11 1:16 PM
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cagepedia
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gold makes no sense to me
9/9/11 1:01 AM
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Buddhadev
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HELWIG -  "If we all could go back in time and take your advice!"

Im gonna be honest. I dont even really understand what has happened with gold.

Can you explain in a brief summary?


The federal reserve printed a crap-ton of money out of thin air and the government in massively in debt. That's pretty much it.
9/9/11 11:54 AM
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HELWIG
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 Ok, so for the foreseeable future is gold still a solid buy or the time to strike was congruant with this thread?


9/9/11 2:15 PM
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cagepedia
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gold is highly speculative, IMO it is never a solid buy. Had you bought it at anytime in the last 3-4 years you would have done awesome and I wish I had but the bottom line is gold is not a safe investment.
9/9/11 3:51 PM
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Buddhadev
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cagepedia - gold is highly speculative, IMO it is never a solid buy. Had you bought it at anytime in the last 3-4 years you would have done awesome and I wish I had but the bottom line is gold is not a safe investment.


You'd be doing even better if you bought it 10 years ago.  You'd have just about sextupled your money.  It's been a solid investment for 95% of my adult life.

Gold is a solid buy until monetary policy changes. People who cite gold's devaluation during the 80s forget that Volker raised rates like a man possessed. I don't think anyone realistically sees Bernanke doing that any time soon. Like any sector investment, its validity as an investment is partly driven by macroeconomic forces.

And there's no such thing as a "safe investment" anyway. 
9/10/11 1:34 AM
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cagepedia
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Buddhadev - 
cagepedia - gold is highly speculative, IMO it is never a solid buy. Had you bought it at anytime in the last 3-4 years you would have done awesome and I wish I had but the bottom line is gold is not a safe investment.


You'd be doing even better if you bought it 10 years ago.  You'd have just about sextupled your money.  It's been a solid investment for 95% of my adult life.

Gold is a solid buy until monetary policy changes. People who cite gold's devaluation during the 80s forget that Volker raised rates like a man possessed. I don't think anyone realistically sees Bernanke doing that any time soon. Like any sector investment, its validity as an investment is partly driven by macroeconomic forces.

And there's no such thing as a "safe investment" anyway. 



TIPS would be considered a safe investment but apart from this I cant think of other safe investments.

You think gold is still a good buy?
9/10/11 11:53 AM
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Buddhadev
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Edited: 09/10/11 2:36 PM
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cagepedia - TIPS would be considered a safe investment but apart from this I cant think of other safe investments.

You think gold is still a good buy?


TIPS has had a PATHETIC return compared to my personal portfolio over the last 5 years.

At this point gold is a definite hold for me and buy slowly. At the current price, it's more of a value than growth proposition. But then again, that's the exact same thing I thought when it was 1000 and I was wrong then (but very profitably wrong!).

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