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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> UFC 57 Discussion


2/1/06 9:00 PM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 01-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 2896
"The dogs that stick out to me are Randy and Riggs." randy +193 and riggs+175 here, those were my 2 underdog choices for this card. they've both come down substantially since then so doesn't look like i'll add to either one of them again. the only favorite i have right now is buentello -248, i pulled the trigger a little too early on that one, i think i saw him in the 230's yesterday or today but back to where i got him now.
2/1/06 9:32 PM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 01-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 2897
based on previous performances, i'll be using the whitehead jardine fight as an opportunity to get rid of a beer and open a new one.
2/1/06 10:25 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 01-Feb-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 740
"Riggs is a steal at those odds. the banks open and you dont need a mask." HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH... I still think randy and pdp are the best dawgs on the card...
2/2/06 4:13 AM
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jaseprobst
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 06/06/2003
Posts: 7262
"Because of the success rate of favorites over the past year and a half or so in MMA, the linesmakers and the betters are over inflating them pretty badly at this point. Based on probability, it makes sense to really start looking for the live dogs(who can win)near term." VERY True. If you look back the last few years, name recognition among casual fans has inflated odds. I still remember seeing Barnett at like +280 vs. Randy and damned near actually betting it (i rarely ever bet).
2/2/06 5:01 AM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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"You're such a lucky bastard to be getting the ppv.. I'll be have 15 hour work day of doing the bloody cricket so I won't even be able to get play by plays or start downloading it until I get home. Btw, how come you took Buentello? Thought you said before that you had no interest in the fight." actually this ppv i would skip entirely if i didn't have 2 brothers and a step brother in town that night. this ppv has download written all over it. no interest meant no financial interest. took buentello for 2 main reasons, huge gap in level of competition and top it off with buentello being one of the cheapest favorites on the card. basically because buentello has faced a who's who of the ufc hw division and for the most part come out on top.
2/2/06 7:20 AM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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ya, buentello -248, riggs +175 and couture +193
2/2/06 8:27 AM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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lol, i just read that whitehead article and he compares himself to couture, only says that he has better standup. not only was his TUF fight a disaster, he appears to be a head case as well.
2/2/06 8:59 AM
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LeftBench
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 08/05/2002
Posts: 2980
Ooh I didn't see this thread till now so I made my own. I'll post here what I put in the other thread. UFC 57 I wanted to use Pinnacle but my friend has an account at another site so we are using that. If I signed up at pinnacle I'd probably lose all of my money quickly because I would get addicted, lol. Anyway, I put 100 bucks on a combo of 2 fights. Couture over Liddell and Sinosic over Sakara. The odds are about 10:1 and I'll win 1007 bucks. Can't go wrong with that. I truly believe Couture is going to dominate like he did in his first fight. I am taking a huge chance with Sinosic but I think after he sees Sakara's hand speed and power he is going to do whatever he can to take it to the ground. From there I believe he can submit Sakara. I also threw down 50 bucks on Mike VanArsdale. I'll make 200 if he is victorious. I don't believe he's going to win but with those odds I figure why not. He will give anyone a run for their money and he is a better wrestler than Babalu. I just hope his wind is better than it was against Couture. I think he might be able to pull off a lay n pray like Randleman did to Babalu a few years ago.
2/2/06 10:00 AM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 2902
i'm really looking forward to the babalu/VA fight, babalu has been one of my favorites for a while and there should be a good wrestling clinic going on in this one. imo, babalu is too expensive right now but has more offensive power and sub skills both offensive and defensive to make VA anything more than a decision winner if he does win, so VA is not cheap enough. if more money comes in on VA and makes babalu cheaper i will take babalu otherwise i'll just watch the fight and hope he wins.
2/2/06 1:12 PM
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nikmisko
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 10/10/2002
Posts: 190
Im bettin 1 UFC 57: Frank Mir vs Marcio Cruz Marcio Cruz 2.87 2 UFC 57 - Chuck Liddell vs Randy Couture Randy Couture 2.37 bet type Combination bet price 6.80 bet amount $ bet payout $ 1360.00 Let me know what u guys think im waiting for weigh ins to see what shape pedra pano looks in.
2/2/06 2:56 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 17
I agree completely with FightingMajor and Probst: there used to be a ton of value in betting UFC favs, but not really anymore. The only UFC bets I've really jumped on in the past few months were Sanchez +200 vs. Diaz and The Crow on the plus money against Tanner. I haven't seen too many vulnerable lines on favorites. Pwnitator, Joey thinks that Diaz is the better fighter. While bookmakers are usually happy to book even money on both sides and feast on the juice, they often use their expertise to gamble against the less-informed public, entering into situations where they have a rooting interest. Believe me, a look of bookmakers will go into the Superbowl this weekend NEEDING the Seahawks (although this may be less about bookmakers liking the Seahawks and more about the opening line being set too low).
2/2/06 3:18 PM
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jaseprobst
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 06/06/2003
Posts: 7270
From what I understand, there's two ways to set a line 1) The traditional, balanced, "play it safe" way that ensures the book makes profit with balanced action on both sides. 2) Riskier "inside info" way when the book perceives that one fighter is undervalued and the public won't recognize it and lay excess money on the other guy. More risk, but more reward. I believe that was the case in the first Pacquiao-Morales fight.
2/2/06 10:53 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 02-Feb-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 746
I know there were articles on the first pac-morales fight where odessa was one of the few bookmakers who had lower odds on morales... I believe morales was +105 on joey's site and higher on others... joey was credited with sticking to his guns and basically saying morales was going to win, but getting lots of action on pac in return... there are probably threads still on this site about that but my free account won't let me search back that far...
2/3/06 2:35 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Feb-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 4922
JoeyOddessa.com
From what I understand, there's two ways to set a line

1) The traditional, balanced, "play it safe" way that ensures the book makes profit with balanced action on both sides.

Most palces like to have a decision on a  game/fight. And unless your short on funds or writing a ton on each side, its probly not the best way to generate profit. I've always had a little gamble in me.  A book  can either put themselves in position to go in needing a guy, or they can just move complettely off money and let the players decide what side to fall on.  VERY rarely does a book balance actiopn on both sides.  If I had a perfect world, I'd love to have a small book and have like 20k on one side and 10k on another side of every college and pro football game on the board  during the season. It would likely be a goldmine so long as the numbers were fairly sharp.

Here's one of the articles on the Morales fight. This doesnt happen all the time.  We were on the wrong side of Hopkins bout both times. http://www.gambling911.com/Erik-Morales-Fight.html

This UFC..........I hoped to go in needing, but not neccessarily having.........Pano, Diaz, Buentello, Whitehead, Monson, Sakara, Vera, Sobral, and let the Couture. (sounds chalky I know, but players are hoping the dogs get there......right now spbook,.com needs Chuck..............we opend -140 and the line went as high as -220..but players have been taking Randy at numbers as low S +125.........basically a bad number considering there were +170's there when they were grabbing +140.)   I wont neccessarilly have these guys on post, but the way the numbers are, if I dont , I will have way the better the number  anyways. If I end up 4 wins / 5 losses, I will likely generate a profit..... depending on how the the money falls.  5-4 does well and 6+ winners  will be a great night. I really think one of these larger favs is going to lose this week. Gun 2  my head I'd say Mir. I have a different opinion ion the Riggs bout.  I see Nick subbing him, but who knows. Its MMA.  And Randy is historically money when he's an underdog.


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