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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Your Thoughts on Penn v. GSP


2/17/06 1:18 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 17-Feb-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 25
 
After doing some analysis and working the probabilities, I have GSP as a razor-thin favorite in this fight, at somewhere around 51.5% / 48.5%. I couldn't resist throwing down on GSP last night at the Venetian since I have him as a slight favorite and I got him better than even money. I'm hoping that the newbie fans will bet up GSP closer to fight time and I can get Penn on the plus money later. If I go into the fight needing GSP then that isn't the end of the world but I'm really hoping to watch this thing on a freeroll.
2/17/06 4:40 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 17-Feb-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 26
Oddessa has already said that he thinks the fight should open as a pick'em. Whether or not that will happen at Pinnacle depends on factors that I won't pretend to understand. As far as the fight goes, I give GSP a slight edge based mainly on his steep improvement curve, activity level, and on my gut feeling that the judges will favor his style of fighting if the fight goes to a decision. That being said, BJ Penn is a sick, sick fighter and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him take this fight. I'm eager to see this line open at a few more books. As of last night, The Venetian still had it at -140 Penn / +110 GSP. They are going to take an absolute bath on this fight. They booked a ton of action on Penn at +170 through +130 and now they are taking a lot of action on GSP, also on the plus money.
2/18/06 12:30 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 18-Feb-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 3709
"Heart says GSP, head says BJ by sub. I like GSP so much that maybe I should refrain from betting on this fight unless someone else makes the decision for me." This is a good policy, for sure. In my early days of playing harness racing, I had a problem with this same scenario. You start letting emotions dictate your bets, and you are in some trouble. This fight is extremely competive. I need to think things through farther, but I am currently thinking there is one who has a decent advantage. In the end, I can almost guarantee you I won't play this one. If I could catch one at +180 or something, that would be a different story.
2/18/06 10:04 AM
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Ruffdogg
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Edited: 18-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/28/2005
Posts: 110
"The fight will all come down to who has the better takedowns / takedown defense." If it's like that then everybody in here knows that GSP got both of those covered. Are you stating that GSP will win??? I think the striking is dead even, submissions definitely Penn wrestling definitely GSP. Should be a very good fight, I think it will be a very even back and forth fight.
2/18/06 10:52 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 18-Feb-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 3710
"Horses? I'm still not sure how people can bet on the horses with confidence, though I'm sure it can be done." You really can't bet one race with big confidence. But, you can bet 20 with confidence. I'm saying it is strictly a percentage game with horses. I am hitting 30% winners this year, and you can make a nice profit with about 20-25%, the way I play. After many years of playing horses, I finally found consistent success by finding repeatable scenarios and commiting to playing all of that particular scenario.
2/20/06 1:07 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 20-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 15919
GSP is gonna kick his ass IMO. He's freakin huge for a WW and BJ is busy drinking up a storm while GSP is pounding on frozen slabs of cow Rocky-Style!!
2/21/06 1:28 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 21-Feb-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 3713
I think ohhhhhmyplata is on the right track. This is kind of what I was thinking as well. I think, in general, there is just an army of BJ Penn supporters, as that Venitian swing showed. There should be nice value on either side, if you feel strongly, the way this is looking.
2/24/06 1:37 PM
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Ruffdogg
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Edited: 24-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/28/2005
Posts: 119
penn has very heavy hands, I'm leaning towards bj on the standup battle. If GSP strikes and takes down bj during every round, he will have a much easier time than just doing one or other.
2/25/06 9:08 PM
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usurper
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Edited: 25-Feb-06
Member Since: 03/12/2002
Posts: 7446
gsp has better hands and takedowns/defense.. im going w/him.
2/27/06 3:04 PM
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GeeRoxx
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Edited: 27-Feb-06
Member Since: 10/15/2004
Posts: 2324
Wow, a nice thread/analysis on these 2 fighters rather than the shit-storm on the UG. These 2 guys are in my top 5 fav fighters so it is very hard to pick, but if I am forced to I will say GSP by decision.
2/27/06 8:02 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 27-Feb-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 30
Okay, so the plan worked: I bet $960 on GSP at +110 at the Venetian I bet $759 on Penn at +140 on the internet If GSP wins, I profit $297 If Penn wins, I profit $103 Man, I know those aren't large sums of money but I'm still happy as shit. Saturday night I'm sitting back and watching the fight knowing, either way, I got a free steak dinner or two coming my way.
3/2/06 10:46 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 02-Mar-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 15931
You should be making $297 then...
3/3/06 6:25 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 5461
JoeyOddessa.com
I think u may have a winning ticket there.  Good luck.
3/4/06 1:34 AM
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usurper
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Edited: 04-Mar-06
Member Since: 03/12/2002
Posts: 7465
i picked marquardt crow gsp should be a great night of fights, no matter what
3/4/06 5:36 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 04-Mar-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 15934
I am very confident that GSP and Ace will win. All of the other fights I don't really know or care too much about. They should have probably gotten some better talent from Canada to even it out a little bit. But Crow and GSP are very good, so I look fwd to seeing their fights.

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