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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> UFC 58 Online Odds


2/26/06 2:49 PM
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Ruffdogg
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Edited: 26-Feb-06 02:49 PM
Member Since: 01/28/2005
Posts: 130
"taking the money i won on overeem and throwing it on marquardt and loasieau " very smart picks, especially marquardt i think there is no way he is losing.
2/26/06 11:47 PM
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JCNovak
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Edited: 26-Feb-06
Member Since: 05/26/2004
Posts: 204
great bet on Overeem. I wanted to bet him on that fight, but after getting my ass kicked in college basketball all day long I didn't pull the trigger. How come no odds on the the Lambert/MacDonald fight?
2/27/06 7:51 PM
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Ruffdogg
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Edited: 27-Feb-06
Member Since: 01/28/2005
Posts: 133
yeah, I am kind of interested in how the lamber/mcdonald odds would be.
2/28/06 3:03 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 28-Feb-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
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JoeyOddessa.com

 I am kind of interested in how the lamber/mcdonald odds would be

I took +350 w/ Macdonald 2x , and the line barely moved....... like 10 cents. Where as  everything else I bet moved about 100 cents.  I dont know much about erither guy, so I threw caution 2 the wind in case someone knew something..................... Thoughts?

2/28/06 4:56 PM
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JCNovak
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Edited: 28-Feb-06 05:05 PM
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Is Pinnacle going to put up a line on this fight? I like Lambert a lot in this fight. I've seen a few of his Gladiator Challenge fights, and mainly what I know about him is that he used to be a heavyweight and is like a bull. I'm expecting him to take MacDonald down and ground and pound him for the TKO. Seems to be his gameplan for most fights. If I remember correctly, MacDonald was on TUF2 as a heavyweight and came in injured and ended up hurting himself worse. I believe this will be his first fight after having surgery. That being said, MacDonald +350 is probably a great bet because I am quite possibly the worst MMA bettor on the planet. So in addition to Lambert, I'm leaning towards taking Penn & Franklin so anyone that is undecided and looking to make some money on Saturday night would probably be wise to be on the other sides...
2/28/06 5:47 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 28-Feb-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

Is Pinnacle going to put up a line on this fight?

Probly day or 2 b4 the UFC.

3/1/06 9:14 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 01-Mar-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 15927
Jesus, Overeem really pounded the living shit out of Sergei. He is stronger than Hell for such a lanky dude. Very impressive. I hope Shogun gets a rematch vs Cole, noone should have to lose like that.
3/1/06 9:25 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 01-Mar-06
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Looks like Florian just bounced. That sucks.
3/2/06 1:06 AM
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Ruffdogg
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Edited: 02-Mar-06
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Lambert should win that match, i mean the dude took out Travis Wiuff. From what I've seen of McDonald, he doesn't impress me much. I do know that he is a great wrestler, so don't be surprise if he takes lambert down. I don't really know how good lambert's guard game is, so that's the big question there?????
3/2/06 4:14 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 02-Mar-06
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+350 on Rob M is the right value in that fight. Sergei actually injured the opposite shoulder in his fight. looks like both of them are fuct now. he really got demolished, that was ugly. he has a huge dome and Overeem dropped bombs on every square inch of it. I felt bad for him.
3/2/06 4:17 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 02-Mar-06
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I think the best value on the 58 card is GSP -140. I'm worried about taking Midoux because a LayNpray Murphy win is probably likely, even though he's coming off of knee surgery. I really like Franklin over the Crow as well, but -288 is expensive when you consider DL's razor blade elbows. If they have to stop it from a cut again, you're fuct.
3/3/06 2:44 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

Win or lose, I absolutely could never lay a price on STP now, unless BJ fought w/ a broken bone or something.  Any value on ST P was lost a week ago when he crossed over again and became the favorite.  STP minus money is a bad bet period, b/c there was as high as +135 on ST P out there. That said, I definitely wouldnt lay a price on Penn now for the same reasons. Same reasoning as why not to bet ST P now.

3/3/06 3:30 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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joey, I'm curious about one thing, I understand what you are saying about values and all that (from reading all your posts on here), but I'm curious how often you will place a bet on a guy that you are just convinced is going to win? seems the majority of your bets and advice is on guys that could win, should win and their value, playing the overall picture and grinding out a profit, but do you ever see a close match up like this and have a very strong conviction that one guy will win and play him even though the best value is no longer necessarily available? as always, you da man...
3/3/06 4:50 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

Not often, unless there turns out to be an injury or solid info. (Like when I felt Riggs had his mental breakdown on scales prior to Hughes bout. I layed that number on Hughes anyways.)

But in general,   if I miss the number and it moves to far I wont pull the trigger.  When I bet, I do it because the number differs from the number I make on the fight. Thats the number I make, not neccessarily the number that I open with. I make 2 sets of numbers. The number I open with that will generate 2 way action, in anticipation of the public bettors, and the other number is the one on paper that I think is the right number on the bout.  For instance.

This weeks boxing.

I think this kid Gabi is a live dog and has a good chance of upseting Vic Darchinyan.  My number on the bout for myself........is -350. I opened him -400 to the public. They have since bet Vic Darchinyan.up to -459. I was correct in how I anticipated the line moving.  Fortunately ...I hope........the general public doesnt know how good Gabi is or that Vic had only 4 weks to train for this bout. Not that he will win, but he should be live.  I think Gabi is worth a play.  If they had bet Gabi down below +300 I would likely pass on the play because now its losing value to the mental (scratch paper) number I made. 

Everyone is different, but this works for me.

3/3/06 5:38 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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always an education, joey... thanks... and good luck this weekend...
3/3/06 7:52 AM
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esch99
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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Joey- I put a little down on Ray Sefo to beat (IMO) overrated Bonjasky this weekend, but on the K-1 official site they have Sefo listed as fighting Botha on the card. Do you know if Bonjasky dropped out, or maybe Botha dropped out earlier and Remy is the replacement (which seems unlikely). In any case, I'd be glad to keep the bet with the same odds vs. Botha!
3/3/06 12:35 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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Posts: 5443
JoeyOddessa.com
Midoux has probs now..........this UFC card appears to have gone to shit.  In any case, lines on Stout vs Fischer will be up 2nite after weigh ins along with Midoux number if he's ok, and will add Macdonalds bout.
3/3/06 2:27 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 03-Mar-06 02:29 PM
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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Down to -130. GSP will win. Mark my words. Let me know if anyone wants to make a screenname change bet with me on this fight. I'll take GSP & you can have BJ.
3/3/06 3:50 PM
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Fishclops
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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i just hope the gsp/penn fight lives up to the hype. i really don't care who wins, i appreciate what both have done to get where they are but there was no way i was going to pass up taking penn as an underdog against anyone in that weight class.
3/3/06 8:56 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

stout odds sent.......will be up shortly at most spots

3/3/06 9:19 PM
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esch99
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Edited: 03-Mar-06
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Posts: 1208
Do you know if Sefo is fighting Remy in that K-1 fight Joey, or is it Botha instead?

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