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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Post GP Bettor thoughts (Spoilers)


5/6/06 1:37 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 06-May-06 01:53 AM
Member Since: 06/08/2002
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JoeyOddessa.com
 

Well, whats everyone think? Here's my thoughts on the numbers and event.-JO

Opening Favs went 8-0. Closing Favs were 7-1, with Overeem being the one to fall.

Openers:

 

Roman Zentsov  -230
Gilbert Yvel

**The public bet me the dog, I was on chalk.  Worked out well. Number never really moved much and closed only about 20.  cents lower than opener. Solid number

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -1500
Zuluzinho

**They bet the dog. Like I mentioned a few days ago,  I wouldnt bet the dog with play money. Was it ever in doubt? Live dog that could not win.  It got the job done, getting dog money without oipening up the books to outrageous exposure if a fluke occured. Solid number

Fabricio Werdum   -110
Alistair Overeem
**Players bet Overeem. Even laying what I thought was a number that went too far at -160.  I saw +160's out there on Overeem early and heard whispers of +175'sOvereem closed as high as -160.  At same time I saw the Overeem +160 , another book I cant play at.......they cut limits to $25, was using Overeem -250 I bet Overeem as a dog and lost.  I 'm not upset losing this bet, but obviously I was on the wrong side betting, but  right side booking. I thought about scalping it at +140 on Werdum, but long term consistent play of numbers you have that much the best of is a winner long term. Probably could have gotten away with opening  Overeem at -140, but making him a tiny dog raked in the cash.  It got alot of help from the MMA Community and Overeems gastank. Solid opener. 

Kazuyuki Fujita  -330
James Thompson
 
**I layed a much lower number on Fujita than my opener. It didnt move much, 2 way action on this bout. Fujita  was getting beat, but in looking at the fight , you had to expect that if Fujita weathered the opening storm, he would win.  Number was counting on good chin from Fujita and no gas or chin from Last of the Mohicans.. Solid opener.

Mirko Filipovic  -550
Ikuhisa Minowa

**Least bet bout on the card.  I thought Minowa was the one Japanese fighter that could suprise, but wisely passed. Two way action. Solid opener.

Josh Barnett -115
Aleksander Emelianenko 
**I went in needing Alex a bit. Barnett got bet up a little bit. About 20 cents.  Despite the money move,  I liked Alex at plus money.  Only real loser for the book on this card.  I lost betting on Alex.  i was definitely on the wrong side, despite looking decent in the first round. I think anyone that bet Barnett to win the entire tourney is wishing they didnt.  Opener  was  a little low in hindsight. Books that had Barnett higher were correct.  The Euro book that I made mention of  above in Overeem bout,  opened Alexander at   -117. Cant win them all. Tough beat.

Hidehiko Yoshida  -770
Yosuke Nishijima

**They bet the dog. Mission accomplished. Like Nog's bout, was it ever in doubt?  Solid number.

Mark Hunt -850
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka
**Wow. What can I say.  This bout was a sweat job from start to finish. Considering the planet bet on the dog.  I saw almsot zero action on the favorite. It was a bad number to open with, despite the result. I opened too high. against my better/bettor judgement, I actually bet Hunt myself at -550 early.  I'm glad its over with.. Even though it was a big  winner for the book, in hindsight I can see I opened with a Bad Number  and  I made a bad bet. I actually layed a number early that was higher than the closing number. That rarely happens to me. I couldn't bet off it. My opener and closing number failed to generate two way action. BAD  NUMBER, but dodged a BULLET.

Anyone else wanna check in?

5/6/06 3:07 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 06-May-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 963
always fascinating... I only played 3 fights and went 2 for 3.... took a shot at kohsaka and even though I lost, after reading your summary, I'm at least glad I was on the right side of a bad number... using what I've learned from you, he was a dog I thought could definitely win... that was the only real dog I thought had a chance, at least that I was comfortable with... my other bets were josh at -110 and later -101... not sold on alex... he fights like fedor but without the same smarts or physical talent.. I also hit on werdum at +100 and later +114... his bjj is slick and his training/teaching with cro cop has made it much more effective for mma than the average bjj allstar (or alistair)... anyone who bet on zulu has to have a few DUI's on their record... no sense there.. more than anything, I'm expecting the next round to produce some very close numbers and very opinionated betting... just from the names alone, it seems to me to have the potential for several very even numbers... which has been rare in teh last year... thanks for the input, joey! I can't tell you how much better I've gotten at this since I started stalking your posts...
5/6/06 4:55 AM
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Ruffdogg
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Edited: 06-May-06
Member Since: 01/28/2005
Posts: 214
I didn't put any money on these fights, but I was rooting for Alistair to win. He didn't win after all, he showed us that he also gasses at HWT too. Joey will you be laying tournament odds for the Middleweight GP which will include your boy Baroni.
5/6/06 11:18 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 06-May-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

Joey will you be laying tournament odds for the Middleweight GP which will include your boy Baroni

yes.

Naturally I hope places open before me so I can take a few stabs at it myself. ;-)

5/6/06 11:29 AM
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Shortspace
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Edited: 06-May-06
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Roman Zentsov/Gilbert Yvel Don't know what the public was thinking, I thought Zentsov was a bad matchup for Yvel's style. Fabricio Werdum/Alistair Overeem I thought these two would match up evenly so it was a no-bet for me. I'm very interested to see what a line for a rematch with Kharitonov would be. Kazuyuki Fujita/James Thompson I wasn't quick enough to get -275 (thanks to odessa) but fortunately the squares at sportsbook.com kept the number low at -300. I belived that thompson, with the more recent exposure in pride and wins (against subpars) would get money on him, despite being a weak fighter IMO. That said, I didn't expect it to be as competitive as it was, I'll chalk that up to Fujita's ring rust. Hey Joey, not on this exact topic but what was the reasoning behind Telligman being favored over Sylvia a couple of UFCs back? I could not understand it, esp. with his age and long layoff. It was so unusual to me I didn't want to touch it. I thought there must be something I wasn't aware of. I appreciate the insight.
5/6/06 11:49 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 06-May-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

I expected the betting public, non mma, to be on Tre. I was wrong, but we got to the right number pretty fast.  Liune moves are often misleading.   Tim and alot of the new TUF guys arent held in too high of a regard with the general public.............. or me either for that matter.

5/6/06 12:16 PM
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Edited: 06-May-06
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I always thought the public favored TUF, very interesting...
5/6/06 2:10 PM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 06-May-06
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I had 3.5x Cro Cop. Easy as I expected. 100 out of 100 type bet. 2x Overeem. Thought it was in the bag, with the easy takedowns (which is what I based the bet on). 2x Barnett. Was not crazy about this one originally, but it started growing on me late Thursday night. I had a really sharp guy help me with this one. Had a profitable night, but it has personally been a down year for me so far in MMA, especially compared to the hugely profitable last few years. That WILL change the rest of the way. Got to have that confidence. Enjoyed your review of your own numbers Joey. No matter how good you are, you can't be perfect all the time. You do a GREAT job at setting the lines. I know it takes a lot of research and hours to come up with the solid numbers you typically come up with. You are the best in the business at setting lines.
5/6/06 8:19 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 06-May-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

Even though the greatest heavyweight in Japanese MMA history lost I would back him again at that number against Hunt.

You wont catch me speeding there again.  I learn from my mistakes. 

Speaking of Mistakes............The K-1 the Mirage event a couple weeks ago.

When Carter Willaims first fought Fujimoto he opened around -600 and closed around -800ish.  Anyways, it was obvious 1 year ago that players didnt hold Fuji in high regard Anyways,  a book opened Carter -200  PRIOR to any weigh ins or weight issues. And then, low and behold Vegas was  as low as -150. the euro book I make reference to did the same at around -185, but cant bet shit there so its not really relavent.  Now I dont claim to be a K-1 expert but lets use this analogy...........

NFL Colts play Jets on road as -17 point favorite and win 42-7.  Then Jets go on road after not improving much to play the Colts.  No injuries or anything.  Colts are now -4.  Would you mortgage your house on the Colts?  Caretr should not have opened anything less than -350, but you no sense smartening them up.  you'd think that just maybe they looked at previous lines and betting  trends when creating one for a rematch. Anywys, I took the donation betting and then opened much higher as to not write one big bet on the favorite.

Anyways, off 2 do in progress on this DeLahoya fight. have good one tonight.

 

5/6/06 9:45 PM
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esch99
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Edited: 06-May-06
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I lost on Alex and TK. TK put on a great effort and I was not upset about the loss there. Alex just seemed to quit after he got tired. I will be staying away from him in the future.
5/7/06 10:24 AM
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kuiva
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Edited: 07-May-06
Member Since: 02/12/2004
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i got 4 out of 4 with fujita, barnett, werdum and mirko.. but this year hasn't been too good for me either(about even) so i used lower bets than normally.. well maybe i'll now learn to trust my bets and stick to the plan.

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