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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Taylor vs. Wright

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5/10/06 1:02 AM
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electricApe
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Edited: 10-May-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 59
 
The OVER 11.5 rounds prop for this fight just moved to -305. If you're not too allergic to the chalk, then I would think about hitting this one for a max bet. The only way this fight doesn't go is if something flukey happens (BAD CUT, FREAKISH SWELLING, INJURY, or DQ).
5/10/06 2:29 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 10-May-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 60
Yup, I think Tarver v. Hopkins goes distance as well. B-Hop seems to be fading a bit and will probably struggle against the bigger guy but I figure he?s way too stubborn to get stopped. Anyway, I scalped the sh*t out of that total, finding the WON?T GO for +300 in Las Vegas and the WILL GO 11.5 for -137 online.
5/12/06 2:22 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 12-May-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 6032
JoeyOddessa.com

where'd u find that OVER line.  If you havent vbet it up to the right number, pass it on so I can.

Here's Pinnacles current.........

Ronald Wright vs Jermain Taylor: WBC/WBO Middleweight Title

Sat 6/17 Ronald Wright vs Jermain Taylor
08:00 PM 601 Ronald Wright +104
  602 Jermain Taylor -114
Sat 6/17 Total Rounds (Wright vs Taylor)
08:00 PM 603 Over 11.5 rounds -356
  604 Under 11.5 rounds +326

5/12/06 3:23 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 12-May-06
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Posts: 61
Oddessa- I got that -305 number from Pinnacle on Tuesday night. It didn?t last long. I moved it a little bit and then someone else quickly bumped it around -325. By Wednesday it was -351. Let me ask you a question: you guys opened that line at WILL GO 11.5 -400 and WONT GO 11.5 +300 which made me think you weren?t looking to take a lot of action. Then the number jumps to -305/+285. Did someone hit the WONT GO hard? It seemed strange for all the juice to evaporate like that.
5/12/06 4:18 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 12-May-06
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Posts: 6033
JoeyOddessa.com

WILL GO 11.5 -400 and WONT GO 11.5 +300

At Pinnacle?  It may have been a typo with that wide a line.

 I only make flat totals, like 9.5, 11.5 etc.  Anytime you see a prop worded WILL/WONT, it  was created by someone else. 

 

5/12/06 4:29 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 12-May-06
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JoeyOddessa.com
WILL GO 11.5 for -137 online.


wheres that number or is it a typo?
5/12/06 5:03 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 12-May-06
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Posts: 62
Sorry, the WILL GO/WONT GO is my terminology. All the lines I?m quoting from Pinny were written the way you usually write them (over 11.5 / under 11.5). The Wright v. Taylor Total definitely opened there at -400/+300 and sat that way for a long time. That B-Hop Over 11.5 number was also from Pinnacle. The first time I saw the fight posted there, the Over 11.5 was at -137. I?m a little confused. I would have guessed that -137 was the # you fed those guys.
5/12/06 5:19 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 12-May-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

my bad............I thought u said Taylor Winky was 11.5o-137

Pinny does get everything from me to start except the By KO , Dec props etc.

6/14/06 1:34 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 14-Jun-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 82
I hope some of you guys took my advice and grabbed this OVER at -305. It has since moved to -400 at Pinnacle.
6/15/06 3:02 AM
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ChiggidyChops
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Edited: 15-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/06/2002
Posts: 671
fucking bodog has no lines.....hey suck ass when it comes to boxing and mma
6/15/06 3:27 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 15-Jun-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 91

Hey Chops Try this book... Best odds around!

 

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xboxing

6/15/06 4:50 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 15-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1093
extremely hard fight to pick in my opinion... almost tempted to bet both fighters by decision and take the +30 or +60 on whoever wins... like taylor's youth, but winky's game is all around more complete and active... been much more impressed with winky's wins than taylor's... total toss up in my opinion...
6/15/06 10:27 PM
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ChiggidyChops
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Edited: 15-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/06/2002
Posts: 673
TS i am just like the saying goes procrastination is a lot like masterbation. It feels good at first, but in the end you're only fucking yourself. is it possible to transfer my bodog funds to pinnacle
6/16/06 10:45 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 16-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1104
oddessa, any thoughts on this fight you wanna share? I've swung over to winky and am confident he will take a unam decision... too much skill and not enough time with steward...
6/17/06 12:44 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 17-Jun-06 12:45 AM
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JoeyOddessa.com

I said earlier in the week that I would be forced to bet either guy at +140.  In this case Winkys the dog...............about +120 to +135 wherever you look.  Winky had actually swung to the favorite a few times in the weeks leading up to the Tarver vs Hopkins bout.  After the 1 sided schooling Hops put on Tarver the money move on Taylor was predictable. 

I still think this bout is a 115-113 type bout. I mean  the -400 ish that it goes the full 12 kinda says its a decision bout....... barring a minor miracle.

I made one play on this bout and plan to sit back and watch.  I took the draw at 16-1.  I think this bout has as good a chance to land draw.  If it plays out like everyone seems to think, it was worth a shot. I cant lay a price on either guy. If forced to chose, I'd take Winky + money but thats if i was forced. Taylors got the promotional advantage here. If it breaks +140 I will make a play on Winky, the size of play depnds how high it goes. I am hoping it doesnt move much more,  b/c taking a side in this bout isnt really something I want to do. 

From a booking position, I know I will go in needing Winky. The position has already established there. But I will be routing hard for a draw to scoop the To Win Props, by KO, Dec, etc.  My draw line has always been low.

6/17/06 1:37 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 17-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1109
thanks, for sharing, joey, I got a small insurance bet on the draw as well... interesting to see how you play the values on a fight like this versus who you think's gonna win... good stuff...
6/17/06 1:57 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 17-Jun-06
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Posts: 6518
JoeyOddessa.com
I dont always do that, because I always feel that generally betting 'value' is a losing proposition. I made a long post about it at a gambling site. I will try and dig it up 2nite.
6/17/06 2:45 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 17-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1111
sounds good, thanks... haven't had much luck finding other sites with good gambling theory forums...
6/17/06 2:45 PM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 17-Jun-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 4067
I can't remember a fight that had people so divided on their feelings. One scenario that seems pretty common in this fight, is that a number of people, including myself, felt real confident early on predicting Winky, and as the fight got closer, started having serious second thoughts. I can't make a play on a fight that has me feeling so mixed. For me it comes down to one thing that has me backing off of playing Winky, and that is the 6" reach advantage Taylor has. This would not be a big deal, if Taylor had no jab, but he has an outstanding jab. Although Taylor has some other advantages, this is the one that makes me the most nervous about playing Winky. Besides, I don't want to risk my profits from Wednesday on a play which I have no decisive feel. I also think Oddessa's idea makes a lot of sense, although I have never played a draw in my life. This one sure has that type of look.
6/18/06 4:31 PM
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jaseprobst
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Edited: 18-Jun-06
Member Since: 06/06/2003
Posts: 7950
Good call on the draw, Joey.

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