UnderGround Forums
 

MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Hughes vs. Gracie


5/15/06 1:41 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
FightingMajor
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 15-May-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 3793
 
This money is definitely going toward Gracie. Here are a few books and the current lines: Pinnaclesports: Hughes -274 Gracie +254 Sportbetting: Hughes -270 Gracie +210 Sportsbook: Hughes -270 Gracie +210 MVPsportsbook: Hughes -300 Gracie +240 TCbets: Hughes -300 Gracie +240 Betchris: Hughes -320 Gracie +260 Betonfighting: Hughes -320 Gracie +260 5Dimes: Hughes -300 Gracie +250 I think the orgiginal lines were Hughes -420 or something like that. The money is heavily going toward Gracie. If you look at most online polls, Gracie is leading handily on those as well, and that is without any monetary handicap. People flat out believe Royce will pull the upset.
5/15/06 2:16 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
MBoylePC
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 15-May-06
Member Since: 03/07/2006
Posts: 24
I think there's definitely the name aspect - when anyone thinks MMA, they know the name Gracie. It's a lot like Klitschko in Boxing; Tiger Woods in Golf; Michael Jordan in Basketball; etc... Now what people don't know is who Matt Hughes is - so, they assume it's a Tyson/Journeyman type fight. It's a Tyson/Vladimir Klitschko style bout, 2006 style. So there's the casual fan putting money on Royce; the undefeated label they put on him in UFC ads doesn't hurt (I guess he wasn't ever beaten in the cage), but they don't know what Royce has done post UFC 5. I think there's good money to be made betting the favorite here at -275 or better; personally, I don't understand people who say Royce will win, because my question is how - and all I see is a Rear Naked Trigg (RNC) or Triangle choke as the subs to end Matt Hughes's night. Hughes is a good decision fighter; that's where I see it going. He's stronger than an ox (and I hear those animals are pretty strong), so I really don't see an armbar; worst case scenario is it will stay on the feet and be a mediocre punching bout. Ken Shamrock managed to give Royce a shiner in their draw; I think Hughes has a similar style of stand up game but better.
5/16/06 8:23 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
per
9 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 16-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 13
I simply can't find this bout or any mma whatsoever on sportsbook.com...? On "other" it shows the us elections and stuff like that and nothing under "trends". What am I doing wrong that makes me a complete idiot?
5/16/06 8:45 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
per
9 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 16-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 14
I cannot view this bout on any site but pinnacle.com???
5/16/06 3:06 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
surfin joe
274 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 16-May-06 03:05 PM
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16030
Hughes GnP/LnP dec. Is this fight 3 or 5 RDs?
5/16/06 4:35 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Oddessa
58 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 16-May-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 6060
JoeyOddessa.com
in boxing section on most sites
5/17/06 12:20 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
surfin joe
274 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16032
3 RDs favors Hughes even more.
5/17/06 6:09 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
kuiva
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 02/12/2004
Posts: 2
i thought that 1,27 was high for hughes. but 1,358.. damn.
5/17/06 9:57 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
FightingMajor
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 3802
Last night I saw Hughes -265 at Pinny, but it quickly bounced off that to -283. This seems to be the pattern. It bounces pretty high off the lows. Last time it bounced back over -300, and then started drifting down again.
5/17/06 5:49 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
electricApe
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06 05:52 PM
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 64
I would be shocked to see a lot of late money come in on Gracie at +210 - +260. The only way I can explain the current odds in this fight is by assuming that the casual bettor is making the typical casual bettor mistakes: 1) betting his heart 2) assuming that a plus moneyline must contain "value" 3) doing little or no forecasting / analysis I'm guessing that the sharp money will hit MH pretty hard once the betting limits rise. Hughes SHOULD be back around -400 when the fight goes off. The way I see it, the books opened with the "right" number and the casual bettor fell all over himself to take the worst of it (as he is prone to do).
5/17/06 7:53 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Oddessa
58 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 6068
JoeyOddessa.com
I think Ape is correct in his assessment of the situation. UFC odds ahve hit the offshore books now. I expect Pinnacle to be up shortly as well.
5/17/06 8:29 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Oddessa
58 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 6069
JoeyOddessa.com
I found and bet Riggs +170 earlier in the day. I opened him +105. Horn bout is going up now. Fischer bout will be up as soon as I see if I can bet in on it in Vegas first.
5/17/06 8:32 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Oddessa
58 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 6070
JoeyOddessa.com
BetEagle is a pretty solid shop. I expect some good things in MMA offerings on the horizon with them. They have been putting some fresh money into a few fighters and sponsorships and thats always a good sign.
5/17/06 11:18 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
sawdusk
73 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 17-May-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 995
I'd go all in with a lister +anything line... what a catch that was for ya...
5/18/06 5:15 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
surfin joe
274 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 18-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16036
damn, I wanted to bet my home skillet Vera. Oddessa knows he's gonna KTFO out Silva Scherner +236 is an awesome value, unless there's something I don't know about. Riggs +170 and Lister as the dog are great bets.
5/18/06 5:34 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
surfin joe
274 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 18-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16037
hey guys feel free to send me an email or IM if there are any more gambling "emergencies" like these (LOL) AIM: joeflandermeyer yahoo: gflandermeyer@yahoo.com
5/21/06 3:33 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
FightingMajor
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 21-May-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 3832
This line seems pretty stable now. The money seems pretty one-sided so far, but I doubt the books are too concerned.
5/22/06 3:24 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
surfin joe
274 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 22-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16039
after talking with Joey, I don't think that I will bet Scherner. The 3 best fights to look fwd to are Vera, Riggs and Hughes. Should be an awesome card. Diego will groundNpound the crap out of Alessio IMO.
5/23/06 12:58 AM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
TSands
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 23-May-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 2
Surfin Joe is on the right track..I think Vera, Riggs, and Hughes are going to be the best three fights of the night to bet on as well as watch. Should be interesting...
5/23/06 2:45 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
TSands
Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 23-May-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 4
Heineken Man hit the nail on the head with those predictions. Styles do make fights and that is what the vast majority of gamblers forget. Sakara is going to be ina world of hurt when Lister keeps the fight close and takes him down. Vera will get off the big punches on Silva and may be the first man to ever knock Assuerio out. Alessio doesn't stand a chance either as this is nothing more than a tune up for Sanchez so that he will be ready to fight either BJ Penn or Karo Parisyan. Sanchez is going to take this fight to the ground and simply maul Alessio. I think the Guillard and Fisher fights are both showcase fights but the problem is that they are going to be before the PPV. More than likely they will face each other after this show. Guillard has all the talent in the world but the guy has had alot of trouble finishing fights in the big show. I think Joe Silva gave him this fight as a confidence booster more than anything. Fisher is fighting a nobody as a gift for taking his last fight on two days notice. Fisher is going to be a contender in the 155 lbs. division and this will be a good way to get him back on the right track.
5/23/06 7:59 PM
Ignore | Quote | Vote Down | Vote Up
Ruffdogg
28 The total sum of your votes up and votes down Send Private Message Add Comment To Profile

Edited: 23-May-06
Member Since: 01/28/2005
Posts: 237
I also think Riggs will take this one, I also see no way that Scherner could beat Gonzaga.

Reply Post

You must log in to post a reply. Click here to login.