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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Odessa portfolio question


5/24/06 1:20 PM
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Casual Fighter
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 06/07/2005
Posts: 150
 
Joey, I have a question for you on distributing risk across several bets. Let's say I want to bet $10,000 on an event, and I have three fights that I like: Joe Riggs (110) Diego Sanchez (-500) Melvin Guillard (-250) (I rounded out the odds for simplicity) What strategy should one use to decide how much to bet on each fight to maximize return/lower risk? Thank you! -CF
5/24/06 2:07 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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not trying to interrupt but are you really betting $10K on this event? you're not going to bet Vera?
5/24/06 2:20 PM
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Frills
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 03/15/2006
Posts: 11
I doubt he's betting the 10k but what he's asking is not what picks, but rather how to use the moneyline to mitigate the risk in the BR while trying to maximize the return. Taking Diego at -500 is the least risky, but has the least return. Alessio at +440 gives the most return but far riskier. He's trying to figure how he can utilize his BR for the best bets.
5/24/06 2:22 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 24-May-06
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lol... no shit. I'm trying to save him from potentially losing some money :) Diego will smash Alessio, but I would never bet any MMA fight at -500. that's ridiculous.
5/24/06 4:20 PM
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Shortspace
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 09/07/2005
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Many MMA favorites do seem relatively pricer than before. Last time I saw a good bet at -500 was Kharitonov vs. Choi
5/24/06 4:32 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 24-May-06
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I take that back. If CroCop fights Giant Silva or maybe Zulu or Sentoryu... then I will bet -500. Or some ridiculous matchup similar to that. But Diego -500 is way too expensive IMHO.
5/24/06 5:31 PM
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Casual Fighter
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 06/07/2005
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Joe, Thanks for the pointers! Frills is correct, I just picked a variety of odds so that I can really understand how to determine the amount to bet. For example, if all three fights had the same odds, I'd just bet $3,333 on each. But what do you do if the odds are different? I am sure there is a good theory behind splitting the betting amount between bets to minimize risk. -CF
5/24/06 5:50 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 24-May-06
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well a lot of gamblers call the amount of their bets "units". like if you're a high roller, one unit might be $500. so then you would say you're betting 3 units on Diego, 2 units on Riggs, etc... I don't have the bankroll to start going into that idealogy, so I just bet one guy here and there. This time I'm only betting Vera. he's going to waste Silva who is too slow for him. but a lot of guys who I respect also like the Riggs betting value. Oddessa will give you better info... he bets a lot of money.
5/24/06 6:23 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 24-May-06 06:25 PM
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JoeyOddessa.com

Really hard to say since the numbers have been out a while now. they have stablized. The key would be to catch the numbets early. I had a really detailed thread of how we manipulated the BJ Penn vs ST P betting line to maximize risk and payout on Penn, but I cant find it here.

Using this UFC as an example: 

I found Gonzaga -130 early.  We bet him for limits untill it hit -215. Our last bet was at -210. the line continued to get bet up, peaking around-350. 

This isnt exactly what we did, but a good example:

If I had 1k on Gonzaga at the following prices : -130,  -140, -150 , -160, -170, -180, -200, -210.  That would be Risking $13,400 to win $8,000.  Average price of -167. Now if I wanted to maximize my earn on Gonzaga with minimal or no risk this is what I would do. 

I would take my best shot at anticipating when the number on Gonzaga has topped out, lets say -350/+300.  I would look to bet all I could on the underdog at  the highest + money I could for maybe 5k.  So imagine  1k at +300,+280, +270, +260, +2505 bets totaling 5k on the underdog to win a total of $13,600.  Noiw on this bout i would be totally out of pocket for $18,400  but  the worst I could do is win $200 if Gonzaga loses or win $3000 if he wins. Thats in a perfect world with correct anticipation of where the line is headed and sufficiuent funds and accounts to get down for that kind of money.

Now you best bet is to just decide how much you want to win on each guy, look for the best numbers available and bet. Its highly unlikelythat the numbers could be manipulated that much this late without tons of money and there would be no guarantee that someone wouldnt gobble up the numbers your looking to bet the number too while your in the process.  Pinnacle's limits will be anywhere from 2k-7k on fight night so you wont have  hard time getting down on the bouts for high limits. 

Hope this helps, and I will be sure to save this thread in case I get asked this again.  Good luck.

 

 

5/24/06 6:42 PM
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Frills
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 03/15/2006
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The only reason I would bet on an mma event with a -500 line is if the site I am playing at has a bonus that I'm trying to clear.
5/24/06 6:45 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 24-May-06
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Actually, I've done that before also. I bet my balance on BJ over Renzo -600 or so. About $1,300. That was one of many drunken bets that I made in the older days. I wouldn't do something like that now.
5/24/06 9:54 PM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 24-May-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
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Here is an example of how I will spread the dollars this weekend, UFC and Boxing. The way it looks now, I will have four plays, 2 UFC and 2 boxing. The one I am most confident in, and really can't fathom a way for it to lose, I will have 5x my base amount. The two plays, which are basically competitive plays, but in which I have a solid feel for one fighter which I feel I am getting good value on, I will go 2x my base amount. The final play I feel is pretty much a mismatch, but not quite as strong a lock as the top play, I will go 3.5x my base amount. My 5x play is around -270, my 3.5x play is around -250, and my 2x plays are +110 and +160. The way I play, if I am going to load up on a play, that fighter must be an elite fighter. I would not hesitate to lay -500 on a fight, but it has to be a total mismatch, like Cro Cop-Minowa. I definitely don't see Sanchez-Alessio being a mismatch. Guillard is not a reliable fighter, so I would never lay -250 with him, unless he was fighting Joey Odessa.
5/25/06 2:25 PM
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Frills
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Edited: 25-May-06
Member Since: 03/15/2006
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Did a bit of research on this, and came up with this link http://www.sportsbookpal.com/calculations2.htm
5/25/06 4:39 PM
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Casual Fighter
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Edited: 25-May-06
Member Since: 06/07/2005
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Odessa, Thanks! If you find that other thread, I would really appreciate a link here. If I understood you correctly, minimizing risk is not about splitting the money between different bets. Instead, it's about following the changing lines to find the best deals on both the + and the - side, and using them to balance each other out. So, if I bet at -200, and I find a rate for the underdog at higher then +200, betting on the underdog will effectively lower my risk (or even eliminate it completely, in your example). Thanks!
5/25/06 4:56 PM
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Frills
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Edited: 25-May-06 08:57 PM
Member Since: 03/15/2006
Posts: 18
Now you're getting into Arb's and hedges. Different area altogather. For instance, I took Alessio at +470 when it opened, now Diego is at -456. This is a great opportunity, course that I'm not taking for some reason. Deleted jacked up math lol Do this at 2 different books, they don't like it much, and might suspend your account.
5/25/06 6:37 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 25-May-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
Posts: 70
Have you ever scalped a fight, Frills? The only reason I ask is that your math is just a tad off. In the example you posted you would break even if Diego wins and net $14 if Allessio wins. Big, big difference between $370 guaranteed profit and $14.
5/25/06 6:40 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 25-May-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
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JoeyOddessa.com
I just caught his math error myself.
5/25/06 8:56 PM
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Frills
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Edited: 25-May-06 09:34 PM
Member Since: 03/15/2006
Posts: 23
I was finishing up some stuff at the office when I posted that lol. Been a hectic day.
5/30/06 4:08 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 30-May-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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well Diego won, but it wasn't easy. Alessio lost when he threw that ill-advised flying knee. that let Diego get his back and (literally) ride him for the win. my friends said that fight was boring, but I didn't think it was boring at all. I like seeing about 20 TDs in a row stuffed.

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