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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Arlovski/Sylvia and Shamrock/Ortiz


6/1/06 1:28 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 01-Jun-06 04:08 AM
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 43
 

UFC 61 ODDS

 

Andrei Arlovski -282
  Tim Sylvia +262

 

 

Tito Ortiz -470
  Ken Shamrock +420

The numbers have begun to move a little bit here... Whats your guys analysis before the hype machine has begun....

Arlovski- I think his definite advantage will be on the ground. Sylvia is very hard to take down and Arlovski has to try and get inside of his huge reach advantage. The interesting thing here is if Arlovski will be scared to get close to Sylvia.

Sylvia- He is going to live and die by his jab. His hands have to be quick and his feet must stay constantly moving. He has the power to beat Arlovski but he is going to have to do a better job of moving his head in this fight as he was lucky to have made it off the canvas in April.

Shamrock- He must fight this fight like it is the last time he is ever going to be in the Octagon because it more than likely is. He needs to show the stand up skills he did against both Kimo and Fujita and he may be able to catch Ortiz.

Ortiz- Ground and Pound. If he stands up with Shamrock, he may be asking for the upset. Ortiz showed the best stand up skills of his career against Griffin but this is a grudge match and Shamrock hits much harder than Forrest. Tito must keep in mind that a win here will get him a shot at Chuck Liddell and the Lightheavyweight Championship.

This is my early analysis of the fights. What do you guys see happening?

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6/1/06 1:51 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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Good read! Arlovski: He needs to train for speed and a long fight (came in a little too thick last time). He needs to stay composed and utilize his far superior movement and footwork, remember defense first. If he does this and picks his shots carefully and composed, he will eventually tag Sylvia and drop him. He needs to obviously avoid getting too carried away when he tags Sylvia. If he avoids another big mistakes, he is the winner. He has too many skills and athletism compared to Tim. Sylvia: Needs to keep that jab working overtime. Keep his defense up. Lets his hands go, but not carelessly. Avoid the ground obviously. He needs to turn this fight into a brawl (where Arlovski gets careless) and hope he lands another big one. Shamrock: He, first and foremost, needs to get someone to help him cut weight. His weight cutting has absolutely killed his power and size when he fights at 205, which was his entire game back in his heyday. He needs the power to be able to wrestle with Tito. So, he needs to be able to weigh in at 205 on the nose, and then get back to 215 by fightime. In their first meeting he weighed 201, and probably 201 or less by fight time. He can't wrestle with Tito like that. I believe Ken needs to clinch with Tito. Ken's clinch game is really good. Where he will have problems is when Tito shoots a double leg. Don't forget, it is a fact that Ken had a badly messed up ACL last fight. If he clinches with Tito a little, he has a chance to roll in for a knee bar or some sort of Achilles lock, etc. This is one of the best ways for Ken to finish the fight, especially if he grabs Tito's bad leg. Other than that, he needs to throw those solid knees if Tito goes down for the leg takedown. Bottom line, Ken has to get close to Tito. He can't stand on the outside and get picked off by Tito's punches. There is too big a reach discrepancy. He definitely has a chance in this fight. I expect it to be a lot closer as long as Ken has some size this time around. I went long on this one, because Ken is one of my alltime favorites, as I spoke to him regularly back in the early days. He probably needs the most help. Ortiz: Stay on the outside and pick Ken off with jabs and the reach. Get the takedown. Hell, just look at the first fight, because he fought a perfect fight last time. It was probably his most impressive effort ever. The difference, Tito is not at that level today both physically or preparation wise (his training team is not like it was previously). He may also take this fight lightly because you can't block out how dominating he was last time. In closing I would be happy as hell if Ken found a way to win this.
6/1/06 1:53 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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I think AA's loss was a fluke and accounts for the "if they fought 10 times, sylvia would win one or two of them"... AA's hands are too quick for tim and I think he'll land that straight right everytime they fight... I also think AA might look to take the fight to the ground since tim should be lessh of a threat there... I think it's a horrible match up for tim any way you slice it and I'm hoping to get AA as close to -200 as possible.. the shamrock vs ortiz fight is an even bigger mismatch in my opinion... only tito's bum knee would prevent him from winning this and even still I can't imagine it... tito's stand up seems much improved and he has and always will be better on the ground... only bets I see here are if the public goes bananas and bets the dawgs (unlikely), giving the favs some value, or someone offers some prop bets and we can bet the under/win by stoppage on both fights...
6/1/06 2:06 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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interesting read, FM... you give both dawgs much more credit than I do... ken is officially in my oddessa "can't win" category...sylvia will always have the punchers chance (I guess anyone does against AA), but I'm in the camp that thinks he's overrated and have pretty much always picked against him... the fight I'm dying to bet on is chuck vs babalu... I'm getting fit for my ski mask in the event that chuck is the fav (which I think he will be, at least after the public gets a hold of the line)...
6/1/06 2:31 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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You won't catch me betting Tim or Ken in a million years in these fights, but I was just pointing out what they need to do. I am one of the few who thinks Ortiz-Shamrock will be much closer than last. I would not bet this fight. I don't think a whole lot of Tito anymore, and never really did, but would never put money on Ken at this point. I flat out avoid betting guys who have proven to be unreliable. I share your statement that Ken is on the dogs who can't win list. Anything is possible, though, and I would jump up for joy if he won. I like Ken as a person. He is much nicer than he comes off. Part of that is just his gimick. I am looking to play Arlovski, but I am personally looking for -200, and if I don't get it, I will pass. I hope you are looking to play Chuck in that fight, because there is close to no way for Babalu to win. He does not have the style to defeat Chuck.
6/1/06 2:51 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 01-Jun-06 02:53 AM
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"The fight I'm dying to bet on is chuck vs babalu... I'm getting fit for my ski mask in the event that chuck is the fav (which I think he will be, at least after the public gets a hold of the line)... " Sawdusk

"I hope you are looking to play Chuck in that fight, because there is close to no way for Babalu to win. He does not have the style to defeat Chuck." FightingMajor

Now those are interesting comments. I think this will be one of the most debated fights in MMA history as fight time nears. Babalu has not lost since November of 2002 and Liddell has been on one of the most dominating runs in UFC history. So let's not waste any time... Who's your guy's early pick?

 

6/1/06 2:55 AM
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kuiva
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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babalu probably has evolved lately. but in their first fight liddel was just so much better that i wouldn't think that babalu could do it this time either.. i'd probably bet liddel at 1,5-1,6 at these odds i would maybe take ortiz but not arlovski. too bad that shamrocks team has been doing poorly in the show..his odds would probably be higher if he would have had a winning team=)
6/1/06 3:00 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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Like I said, I see very little chance for Babalu to win. He's highly unlikely to win standing, and he's even more unlikely to get the takedown. Go figure. This one is very easy to pick. This is a classic styles mismatch. I will certainly bet Chuck in this fight.
6/1/06 3:07 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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FightingMajor.....

That is very strong analysis. I find the build up for this fight to be sort of odd. Babalu has still not had a big fight since coming back to the UFC. I think a fight against Bonnar or Griffin would have done wonders for his popularity and the overall draw of this show. I don't think this will be the biggest main event of the year but the internet community will get hyped up for it by the end of August.

6/1/06 3:14 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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You may also have that "cult" following for Babalu that seems to exist. A lot of people bet without ever once considering what the fight will unfold like, from a stategic standpoint. I should also point out that I have been a big backer of Babalu. I played him heavy at near even money against Travis Wiuff and again heavy against Sonnen. I tend to have go-to guys, but you have to face reality when you bet, as you surely know TSands.
6/1/06 3:21 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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Reality bites many people in the ass... Gamblers have a hard time imagining their favorite fighters losing. Examples of this would be all the money that poured in on Tito Ortiz when he was facing Chuck Liddell or Randy Couture when he was facing Chuck Liddell the III time. These were obvious mismatches but the public put their heart on the line and were killed for it. The bettor who uses his mind to analyze will always end up with the best chance to succeed.
6/1/06 3:44 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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I always laugh when everyone says, "Joeys crazy, that line is way off, etc...", not realizing the line is being set, based largely on popularity and "cult" followings. A lot of times it is good to bet right when the line comes out, but quite often the best value comes in toward the end, especially on heavy betting events like UFC.
6/1/06 3:51 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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People criticize the man in one breath but then you see a thread from the same person the day after the event asking him how he does it...lol Whats the biggest change you have ever seen on a UFC fight from the opening of the line to close?
6/1/06 3:56 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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Not sure the biggest change, but I patiently waited for Swick and caught it in the last hour on Pinny at +115. I have seen some incredible shifts in the last hour of betting on Pinny. I remember the Leben-Rivera line shifting dramatically in the last hour. I rember watching Arlovski-Sylvia line dropping from like -400 to -300 all of a sudden on Pinny, and I bet it, than 3 minutes later it was back to -400. That was fairly early in the betting I think.
6/1/06 4:07 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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Best of luck to all of you at UFC 61. Keep the analysis coming as I think it will be interesting to see how everyones opinions hold up.
6/1/06 2:44 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
Member Since: 04/20/2005
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I think you guys are ignoring a huge factor in the Shamrock vs. Ortiz fight: Tito's health. He already tried to pull out of this fight and was convinced to stick it out. Anyone who watched the last 7 or 8 minutes of Ortiz vs. Griffin must realize that Tito's knee was in very, very bad condition. Will Tito's knee have healed fully for UFC 61? Will it be able to support him for 3 full rounds (which it couldn't against Forrest)? If Ortiz was healthy, I would have loved him at -450. With his knee being what it is, I think I'm going to have to stay on the sidelines.
6/1/06 3:07 PM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 01-Jun-06
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I'm wondering if he doesn't end up pulling out still yet. Any way you slice it, Tito will not be focused for this fight. His value if horrible at -450 IMO.

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