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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Hopkins/Tarver 6-10 Analysis


6/9/06 12:02 PM
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TSands
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Edited: 09-Jun-06 10:45 PM
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 73
 
The closer this fight gets, the more interesting it gets to me. I think Hopkins won both of his fights against Taylor so in my mind he is still undefeated over the past 13 years. I definitely think he won the first fight and at worse the second fight was a draw. Antonio Tarver has dominated Roy Jones Jr. twice now and a win against Hopkins would be huge for his career as an overall body of work. Tarver will have to knockout Hopkins to put any legitimacy behind the win as B-Hop is moving up two weight classes for the fight. This may play in to Hopkins hand though as he has done a tremendous job over the years against guys who go headhunting on him. Many critics say that Hopkins is over the hill but Tarver is no spring chicken himself. Both guys have excellent skills but the fight really boils down to whether or not the weight gain will be good or bad for Hopkins. So who do you guys like in this one?
6/9/06 1:39 PM
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electricApe
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Edited: 09-Jun-06 01:40 PM
Member Since: 04/20/2005
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Hard fight to cap for me. I think both guys are a bit overrated right now, particularly Tarver. These are two fighters who I'd probably be looking to fade under different circumstances. 90% of AT's reputation was built in his two victories over a nearly-shot RJJ. I really don't think he's as special as people think. In the late rounds of the third RJJ fight the guy looked like he might collapse due to fatigue and RJJ wasn't even doing anything. At 37, AT isn't exactly a young lion either. B-Hop refused to let his hands go against Taylor which, on my betting sheet, is an unpardonable offense. I try to never back a guy who's chronically inactive like that, particularly when he's 41 and jumping north two divisions. My final take: AT is the bigger, younger, better man here, but not 2.5 times better. I'm not touching any sides on this one. I got a nice little scalp on the WILL GO / WON'T GO and that'll be it for me.
6/9/06 7:39 PM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 09-Jun-06
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1060
bigger, younger and stronger all point me towards tarver... if bhop was reluctant to let his hands fly against taylor, I think once he tastes that lightheavy weight power, he's gonna be just as if more reluctant... I think tarver will eek out a decision... i predict he'll get hopkins respect early on, cruise a bit picking up rounds, gas and then give the later rounds to hopkins... I don't expect a great fight based on their two styles... hope I'm wrong..
6/9/06 8:49 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 09-Jun-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 6385
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Tarver
6/9/06 10:34 PM
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TSands
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Edited: 09-Jun-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 74

Looking for value in this show, I like Hopkins at +410 by decision.....

Not a huge play here by any means but if you've gotta bet it then there is your value pick.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xboxing

6/10/06 11:47 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 10-Jun-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
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No bet for me on this fight, but I think you could make a case for either guy, based largely on the flaws of the other. Tarver is no big deal in my book, and he is clearly not even 1/2 the fighter he makes himself out to be. If Hopkins was younger, this fight would very easy to pick.
6/10/06 1:24 PM
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TSands
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Edited: 10-Jun-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 79

FM Do you look at the weight gain as an advantage for Hopkins or a disadvantage? Obviously he is fighting a bigger man now but it has been tough for him for the past few years to make it down to 160. Maybe this will give him a little bit of spring in his step late in the fight as he won't be cutting weight. Analysis?

It would be ironic if it was the 37 year old Tarver who showed age tonight and not Hopkins......

6/10/06 1:40 PM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 10-Jun-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
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I anticipate that the combination of 1) Tarver cutting down from 218 lbs and 2) Hopkins no longer having to cut weight, is a definite advantage for Hopkins in terms of stamina. Hopkins has always been clearly superior to Tarver in terms of stamina, and this only helps. Hopkins should come down the stretch, the clearly fresher guy, I think. Remember, Tarver had said that his LHW days were behind him, as he had no intentions of fighting at the lower weight again. This fight came up, and was a nice financial deal for him, so he took it. Tarver's key to victory is to build up a big lead early or get the KO (which would shock me).
6/11/06 1:11 AM
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TSands
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Edited: 11-Jun-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
Posts: 80
That was damn ugly.... I was scared the whole second half of the fight that either Tarvers eye was going to swell so bad that the ref would stop the fight or he would just give up and get KO'ed. Hopefully Hopkins hangs it up and we can see him go out in dominating fashion.
6/12/06 10:01 AM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 12-Jun-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 4022
Nice call TSands!!! I have not seen the fight yet, but it is amazing how dominant Hopkins turned out to be. It sounded like nearly as much to do with Tarver's lack of doing anything. It pisses me off, because I had been planning to load up against Tarver versus several top LHW contenders, but he is exposed now. He is not that good.
6/12/06 1:46 PM
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TSands
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Edited: 12-Jun-06
Member Since: 05/22/2006
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FM Tarver went in to this fight with no distinct advantage. Their ages were roughly the same, Hopkins was the better all around fighter, Tarver was cutting a large amount of weight while Hopkins went in at roughly his walk around weight..... I think all of these things coupled with the fact that Tarver was hugely overrated made this a great value on Hopkins by decision.

Believe it or not Hopkins actually closed at +475 to win by decision....

 

 

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